I still don't see EV's Replacing ICEs.

In reply to z31maniac :

ProDarwin said:

pimpm3 (Forum Supporter) said:

ProDarwin said:

I have been watching this train wreck of a thread for a while, but have to jump back in for this one. 

Boost_Crazy said:

Jails fix the problem 100% of the time. If the problem is John Doe commits crime against law abiding citizens and he goes to jail, guess what he can't do? It doesn't get any simpler than that. 

The problem is crime.  Jails do not prevent crime.  They discourage some, but not others.  They impact some of those that are not discouraged but are caught, but again, only after a crime takes place.

Being soft on crime also teaches the criminals that there are no real consequences for their actions. If they are caught breaking the law and are immediately released, what is preventing them from re-offending?

If every time they commit a crime and are caught, they serve time, eventually they will realize that the juice is not worth the squeeze. 

Eventually, maybe.  I am not saying jails aren't necessary or there should be no consequences.  But the whole "Jails fix the problem 100% of the time" statement is absurd.  Sure, if you never release anyone, it will eliminate repeat offenses.  There will still be crime.

And there are numerous studies that have shown harsher sentences do not deter crime. 

https://www.vera.org/news/research-shows-that-long-prison-sentences-dont-actually-improve-safety#:~:text=A%202021%20meta%2Danalysis%20of,because%20incarceration%20destabilizes%20people's%20lives.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/fact-brief-does-increasing-the-penalties-for-a-crime-reduce-the-incidence-of-that-crime

https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/247350.pdf

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20180514-do-long-prison-sentences-deter-crime

For the record, Bobzilla has it right. I wasn't doing a deep dive on the various contributing factors of crime. I thought I broke it down as simply as possible. People commit crime. The same small percentage of people commit the vast majority of crime. When they are in jail, they cannot continue to commit more crimes against the public. It doesn't get any more simple than that. There is zero logic to letting repeat offenders/career criminals free to commit more crimes when they haven't paid their debt to society for their previous crimes. Deterrent is just a bonus.

Those links above don't say what you think they say. They primarily focus on the individual criminal, saying longer sentences don't necessarily deter them from committing the crime. Even if we ignore that they are very unlikely to serve a full sentence, the studies fail because the they can't prove a negative. How do you track crimes that didn't happen? If Criminal #1 goes to jail, and his buddy Would be Criminal #2 decides that life is not for him, how do you account for that? From one of the links...

1. The certainty of being caught is a vastly more powerful deterrent than the punishment

I agree, and therefore the opposite is also true. If we stop pursuing and arresting criminals for crime, it becomes an encouragement rather than a deterrent. 
 

2. Sending an individual convicted of a crime to prison isn’t a very effective way to deter crime.

It prevents that person from committing more crime. 

3. Police deter crime by increasing the perception that criminals will be caught and punished.

Again, then the inverse must also be true. 
 

4. Increasing the severity of punishment does little to deter crime. 
 

Again, the criminal in jail is not out committing more crime. 
 

In reply to ProDarwin :

Back to EV's. 
     The worlds biggest market for new cars is China.   Back in 2016 China basically said no more ICE's 

    Then again in 2020 they gave a deadline. July 2023 

     Meanwhile ICE cars are piling up.  In January there were 2 million unsold ICE cars. And another million added to the unsold cars in spite of steep discounts.  
      China moved the deadline to Dec 31 of 2023 

    The problem is most Legacy  mfg. are already 200 billion in debt   Nissan debt has been declared junk bond status.  Toyota is also 200 billion in debt with no EV's on the Horizon.  European markets are buying EV's 

     Plus all the unsold ICE's in China. 
    And the handful of Chinese made EV's won't qualify for the $7500 tax break.  Here in America. 

STM317 said:

It NEVER ends.

Ahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaa!

Nissan is almost sure to go bankrupt in the next 12 months.  
 Toyota will be able to move some of those Chinese made ICE's to Africa, Middle East, South America.  
  Honda and GM are combined together to develop EV's.  I'm not sure how well that will work.  GM combined with Toyota and that failed.  Isn't Tesla building cars in that factory?   
     

Ford Chevy, Dodge?  Have lots of new trucks sitting on their  lots  waiting for buyers who aren't coming. 
   New prices start in the mid $35k and go on up over $100,000

     Some of that is due to higher interest rates. Some of it is fear of a coming recession. 
  But I suspect the recent price increases  is the main reason.  
    How much of that is due to investment in EV's?    Well somebody has to subsidize  the $20,000 loss per vehicle the factory is losing. 
 

  Tesla is sitting with $60 billion in cash reserves.  And practically no debt.  
     It's not surprising they are #2 in sales.   

 Both GM  and Ford are sitting with a couple of hundred billion dollars of debt to service.   And anticipating they each need to borrow $200 billion more.  

    Right now TESLA IS #1 in global EVsales. 
                        BYD is #2

                         VW  is #3. 
 But in China.  Tesla and BYD ARE 1&2. But GM is #3  in EV sales  partnered with 2 partners. 

Minnesota just announced a $2500 rebate on EV's. 
   Usual stuff max purchase of $55,000  but no income limits announced.  State limit of 16 million dollars so it's really going to be 1st  come  first served.  
 Combined with The federal $7500 that's a total of $10,000.
      Since a basic model 3 starts at $39,000, nicely under the average new car price of $45,000, we don't exactly have to break the bank  to buy what should be our last car. 
Also considering the model Y 

   Much as I'd love to wait for the new Model. 2  those aren't really expected to arrive until the 2 nd or 3 rd quarter of next year.  
   I suppose I should do my due diligence and look at  the Ford Mach E  and Volkswagen's offering ( but not sure if VW's qualify) 

  Both Volvo's new model 30E  and the pending Honda GM merger is interesting but  no announcement of when they will arrive yet. Or what prices are expected. 
  Any others I'm overlooking?  

In reply to frenchyd :

What about the Kia EV6 or the Hyundai Ionic 5? They share a platform. The Kia offers a "GT" trim with 576hp, massive brakes, sport seats, etc. 

 Good thought!   Are they made n North America do they get the $7500 federal credit?   

In reply to mblommel :

Im not an EV guy, my wife is on the fence, she used to love them and has softened on them, but if the Ioniq 5 was more widely available late last year in the specs she wanted, we probably would have bought one.

I didnt necessarily want an EV but I was willing to compromise because the tasty retro styling. They dont work very well for our situation, but most of the cars I buy arent logic choices and she doesnt care, so it was hard for me to tell her No your car needs to have all of the restrictions and only be based on logic and next week tell her I want to buy a 30 yr old piece of E36 M3 GM

In reply to frenchyd :

You do understand the $7500 is not a rebate right? It does not come off the price of the car. You do not walk out with a $39k car for $29k.

You do understand that instead of paying the income taxes I can use the $7500 tax credit instead?    
  It's not like it goes away.   
  I would wonder how much I can earn without paying any income tax  with a $7500 tax credit.  
     See, it doesn't matter which way you slice it, you are $7500& $2500 ahead if you buy a new EV that qualifies. 
       Not all do.  Only  North American Made cars with North American batteries. 
      Considering how little domestic product there is used in most ICE  cars.  You are really buying American  with an EV 

In reply to Opti :

I was impressed with the million mile Tesla.  The take apart convinced me how well they are built and the fact that it got there on only 2 sets of batteries  means I have a very good chance of  it lasting me the rest of my life.  
      I understand it's still a gamble.   Even the  best made cars  have failures.   But neighbors and friends with them report no problems do far. 

We ended up going with a gas model because the cost of power here outweighs much of not all the EV advantage.

Boost_Crazy said:

In reply to frenchyd :

Here I go again down another Frenchyd rabbit hole, but whatever.

In reply to Boost_Crazy :

80% of American's live in or near a major city. 
  Big cities concentrate poverty into certain areas.  Which results in high crime.     
 

This is absolute crap. Being poor doesn't drive you to crime. Most poor people are not criminals. The majority of victims of crime are poor. It just so happens that the lifestyles/choices/stage of life of the poor often coincide with those of criminals, so they inhabit many of the same areas. The good news is for most, being poor is a temporary state of their lives, and they are not permanent residents. You have heard the phrase "crime doesn't pay?" It's more than just a slogan, crime is not an easy way to build wealth Vs. playing within the rules, so many criminals are poor. 

  Arrest everyone breaking the law and you'd better hope you're never are followed by the police.  Regardless of how careful you are, you'll break a law within 25 minutes or sooner. 
 

Again with the binary choices. I challenge you to find one person- one- in this country of over 300 million- that thinks any and all crimes should result in jail sentences. Sure the average person might jaywalk, tear off their mattress tag, break the speed limit. But the average person is not going to break into a car or home, assault a random person, commit robbery, or worse. 

  The reason some cities may go easy on crime,  is if you remove one person from the family. 50% of the guidance is gone, 50% of the income is gone,  & 50% of the support is gone.  
 

If a parent is willing to commit crimes and go to jail when they should be raising a child responsibly, there is a good bet that the guidance, income, and support wasn't happening anyway. And why would anyone blame the legal system for holding one responsible for their actions, when the individual doesn't care enough to eliminate that risk for themselves? 

 

If you want an iron clad guarantee that the children will grow up as criminals. Put them in the foster care system. 

 

My brother and sister went through the Forster care system until my Mom adopted them. They turned out just fine. While I agree that there is plenty of opportunity to fix the system, there is zero evidence that leaving children with a criminal parent while they continue to commit crimes would have a better outcome. 

       We have hard working mothers working 5-6 jobs to take care of their kids because the husband is in jail. 

 

That sounds to me like the mother made a long list of choices that negatively impacted her life. Good for her for taking responsibility and doing what needs to be done. 

       Most of the time those kids have no parental supervision.

So? The answer is to let Dad commit crimes by night and coach T-ball by day? What fantasy world are you imagining? 

 

That is reality. 
    Jails rarely "fix"  the problem. The most that can be hoped for is the violent ones are warehoused safely away 

 

Jails fix the problem 100% of the time. If the problem is John Doe commits crime against law abiding citizens and he goes to jail, guess what he can't do? It doesn't get any simpler than that. The problem here Frenchyd is that you and people like you care more about the consequences of John's actions than he does. So you want to remove the consequences, but the only real solution is for John to not commit the actions. You didn't help him, you just enabled him and hurt more innocent people. Even worse, you enabled would be Johns who otherwise wouldn't to follow his example if there were consequences. There is endless data to support that the softer on crime cities have been, the more crime they got. To bring this somewhat back on topic, there are organized criminals who commute to soft on crime cities. They literally carpool, so I guess it's not too bad. 

So your solution is to take young criminals and mix them with older more experienced criminals  to give them advanced training in how not to get caught?  
    Meanwhile feed them and give them plenty of exercise.  Nice  long sentences for trivial stuff. ( gotta keep the Jails filled  for the law and order crowd). To heck with the tax payers. 
  Most of these guys aren't particularly brite so those long sentences help them really learn  how to be a criminal

plus all the connections they'll make with other criminals.   Perfect  so they can go right into a criminal career as soon as they are out.  
  That's perfect for high rates of recidivism.  Which the party can use to scare up  a lot of contributions.  
    You really want to cut down on crime?   Take Some ideas from the left and the right. 
     Be scientific about it. Use what actually works and try other things. 
until then it's just talk and posturing. 

In reply to frenchyd :

Actually, I propose an Adopt a Felon program. They are all good people who are victims of circumstance, and just need positive role models. You should be receiving your first group at any time. 

You suggested that we don't send criminals to jail- so that they won't go to jail and learn how to avoid going to jail. You said that we can reduce recidivism by not sending criminals to jail in the first place. Why bother having laws at all? No laws, no crime. Think of how great society would be then. 
 

In reply to Boost_Crazy :

Just try and think  of solutions.  Not absolutes.   Isn't there a crime that some kid could do  that calls for prison. But could be done with an ankle bracelet  Restricted to his house? 
  Forced to work to pay restitution  to those he wronged?    

In reply to frenchyd :

If, as you stated- having your freedom taken away and going to prison is not a deterrent- then please explain to me how restitution and ankle bracelets are deterrents? You can't. So since deterrents don't work, I'm all for leaving them behind bars to serve their sentences. 

Honestly French, if you want to see how the diversion vs prison (avoid putting people in jail / prison) thing works out, you should move to Los Angeles (or maybe Portland or Seattle) and see for yourself.  Maybe manage a Target or CVS.  

Hint: NOT good, it's an s-show.  The criminal types (doesn't take a large %) have quickly taken advantage.

Hey, weren't we talking about electic cars?

I was thinking about electric cars while watching BattleBots, which are all of course electric.  The insane amount of toxic smoke that develops many of the fights doesn't exactly inspire confidence!  (Yes, I know, not directly comparable).

Boost_Crazy said:

In reply to frenchyd :

If, as you stated- having your freedom taken away and going to prison is not a deterrent- then please explain to me how restitution and ankle bracelets are deterrents? You can't. So since deterrents don't work, I'm all for leaving them behind bars to serve their sentences. 

I would be too if we didn't have to let them out. 
    Stealing a TV isn't a life sentence.. and even law and order types  get tired of watching and taking care  of people at the tax payers expense.  All the time they are making criminal connections and improving the skills of being a criminal. 
      Ankle bracelet and they have to stay in their apartment or be at work. 
   They aren't getting drunk in bars or selling drugs on the corner.  
   
       

aircooled said:

Honestly French, if you want to see how the diversion vs prison (avoid putting people in jail / prison) thing works out, you should move to Los Angeles (or maybe Portland or Seattle) and see for yourself.  Maybe manage a Target or CVS.  

Hint: NOT good, it's an s-show.  The criminal types (doesn't take a large %) have quickly taken advantage.

 

Hey, weren't we talking about electic cars?

I was thinking about electric cars while watching BattleBots, which are all of course electric.  The insane amount of toxic smoke that develops many of the fights doesn't exactly inspire confidence!  (Yes, I know, not directly comparable).

Talking about cars,  I wonder what Battle bits with ICE engines would spew out?    
     I can sit in a closed garage with an electric  car on  while doing the same thing with an ICE  would be fatal. 
     
here's the deal though. I love working on a  piston engine.  Carefully fitting a piston into a cylinder.  Honing the bore to the perfect pattern to quickly break.in the rings.  Carefully hand lapping the valves in for that perfect seal.  Then listening to that powerful roar as it starts up. 
   But those are toys.  Not boring transportation modules.   
   Getting too and from work?  Let it be cheap!!! And reliable so I have the money and time for the toys. 

why does the daily drive have to be boring? I prefer cars with Seoul..... get it?

but didnt the discussion on prisons get shut down? is there a topic where frenchy is actuallly in reality and not his made up dreamland?

bobzilla said:

why does the daily drive have to be boring? I prefer cars with Seoul..... get it?

but didnt the discussion on prisons get shut down? is there a topic where frenchy is actuallly in reality and not his made up dreamland?

You must live someplace where the roads aren't filled with mind dead men and women 3-4 lanes wide puttering along.  
  I save my fun for the race track.  

STM317 said: