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Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/26/22 2:46 p.m.
ProDarwin said:

I fully believe a decent $10k-$15k  basic EV could be mass produced with a suitable range for daily use.  I also believe that 1) nobody would be interested except for like 6 people on this forum and 2) manufacturers wouldn't be interested even if they did sell because the profit margins are much better on higher end/more optioned vehicles so it makes more sense to send their manufacturing capacity/design resources/etc. in that direction.

 

I fully believe Apple could build a very respectable $300 iPhone.  But it doesn't make sense for them to do that.

Apple does make an iPhone for $429. It's called the iPhone SE. I have one in front of me right now that I actually paid about $350 for new a couple of years ago.

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/26/22 3:19 p.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

You've got to remember that Ford's first offerings weren't as basic as the Model T.   He started out much higher and was only able to get to that point as his success ( and volume built.  
     Is  Musk  going that direction with the Tesla?   He can build them cheaply anyplace because most assembly would be automated and the cost of automation is the same anyplace.  
  Is Ford? Remember the Mustang?? Started out as a cheap secretaries car that could be optioned up to great profit.  
  Is that VW's path to outsell Tesla by 2025?   
Or GM's to regain the size and market dominance Roger Smith traded away for personal profit?  
   
    

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/26/22 3:24 p.m.
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

Nobody wants to build cheap cars anymore for the American market. The MBAs run the numbers and like crossovers and SUVs more. Even Kia and Hyundai are canceling their sedans in favor of crossovers and SUVs. They want you to lease if you can't afford to buy and poor people can just buy used. 


Housing is the same way. Builders aren't interested in small homes that aren't as profitable. 

 

 

Cheap 3 bedroom ranch homes can't be built anymore because land values, building restrictions and  NIMBY  rules prevent them.  
Meanwhile monster  big wooden apartment buildings are flying up in every niche and corner forcing lower and middle class  into rental rather than home ownership. The path to building value security, low crime, is through home ownership not rental. 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/26/22 3:30 p.m.
rob_lewis said:

Something else I just thought of.  An EV would be perfect for a densely populate city.  The commute would be small, it would reduce pollution and would be MUCH cheaper to maintain.  But, where would you charge it?  Densely populate cities are that way because of apartments.  Apartments don't give an owner the ability to charge at home.  Granted, some newer or upgraded units might have a handful of charging spaces, but if we're talking large scale conversion.......

-Rob

Cities would be thrilled to put up charging meters instead of parking meters with the attending higher profit potential.   Apartments with off street parking too would gain an extra come stream.  
 Cities  dealt with horses before they got cars.  Cars were clean compared to horse droppings, traffic moved faster with cars than horses. As they will with EV's quicker acceleration.  

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/26/22 3:33 p.m.

You could save money through automation. Robots build most of it. Spend a lot of time making the line more efficient. You could build just one model with no options. No model changes year to year. Every car gets the same engine and transmission. Every car has a/c and an  AM/FM Satellite radio with GPS. Save money on paint by making them all one color. You could save money through shipping by building the engines and transmissions in one factory and shipping them to regional factories for final assembly.

rob_lewis
rob_lewis UberDork
5/26/22 3:45 p.m.
frenchyd said:

  Is that VW's path to outsell Tesla by 2025? 

Or Toyota.  I could see a low priced EV being much more profitable globally than just the United States.  I could see VW or Toyota reaching a broader market (i.e. volume over price) than I could see Ford doing it.  Plus, Toyota's new solid state batteries might be the game changer to tip the scales. 

-Rob

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/26/22 3:49 p.m.
dculberson said:

Yeah, I think they already make it, it's a Nissan Leaf. They're $27k new which is really cheap in today's market. They have 150 miles range in that config. It's just, nobody wants cheap barebones cars. When you're shopping payment and it's just as easy for you to get into a loaded up car with all the options for not that much more per month, why not?

You are right ( and wrong)   Yes the Nissan Leaf is a bare bones car.  At the bottom of the currant market.  
  However the Nissan Leaf is caring  a bunch of baggage with its history and ( uniqueness)  not that they couldn't be overcome. With an aggressive marketing campaign. ( expensive) 

  Could the price be significantly reduced with massively  more volume? Without an expensive boat trip to market?  Lacking customs duty?  

    The two major markets currently.  The US and China. Both have great potential. Both are starring  at very scary futures. 
 The US has a very strong dollar and anticipation the the national debt can be reduced to a Trillion dollars this year yet.  Yet most are predicting a severe downturn by the end of this year. 
     China's Yuan  is weak and weakening. ( which is better for exports) but it's total debt is actually unknown.  Twenty five new metropolitan cities have been built from the ground up and several are complete ghost towns deteriorating even before occupied.   China's limited water sources , farm land, resources,  and aging population are all hurdles keeping China from realizing new markets. 

rob_lewis
rob_lewis UberDork
5/26/22 3:50 p.m.
frenchyd said:
rob_lewis said:

Something else I just thought of.  An EV would be perfect for a densely populate city.  The commute would be small, it would reduce pollution and would be MUCH cheaper to maintain.  But, where would you charge it?  Densely populate cities are that way because of apartments.  Apartments don't give an owner the ability to charge at home.  Granted, some newer or upgraded units might have a handful of charging spaces, but if we're talking large scale conversion.......

-Rob

Cities would be thrilled to put up charging meters instead of parking meters with the attending higher profit potential.   Apartments with off street parking too would gain an extra come stream.  
 Cities  dealt with horses before they got cars.  Cars were clean compared to horse droppings, traffic moved faster with cars than horses. As they will with EV's quicker acceleration.  

So, is it down to the chicken and egg problem?  More charging points would drive more EV sales and more EV sales would drive more charging points.  I think it's getting there, it'll just take a while.

-Rob

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/26/22 3:57 p.m.

In reply to rob_lewis :

Absolutely.  Nothing that big occurs overnight. To a generation used to the instant gratification of modern society you have to put things in perspective look at how long it took the cell phone to become an overnight sensation.  
  Henry Ford started in 1903 it wasn't until 1923 that prices reached bottom. 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/26/22 4:08 p.m.
rob_lewis said:
frenchyd said:

  Is that VW's path to outsell Tesla by 2025? 

Or Toyota.  I could see a low priced EV being much more profitable globally than just the United States.  I could see VW or Toyota reaching a broader market (i.e. volume over price) than I could see Ford doing it.  Plus, Toyota's new solid state batteries might be the game changer to tip the scales. 

-Rob

You could be right.  Except Japans population is aging without a visible correction in site.  Nor does Japan really anymore have the finical   depth to take the risk.   
I see Germany with its recent open border policy's and economic strength as being in a better position. Not only do they have nearly a Million North African immigrants but what about attracting those from the Ukraine and other border countries that feel threatened by Russia's aggression.  
    Finally Russia's capacity for energy storage is at or past it's limits. So it won't be too long before Their military heads home just like they did in Afghanistan.  

rob_lewis
rob_lewis UberDork
5/26/22 4:18 p.m.
frenchyd said:
rob_lewis said:
frenchyd said:

  Is that VW's path to outsell Tesla by 2025? 

Or Toyota.  I could see a low priced EV being much more profitable globally than just the United States.  I could see VW or Toyota reaching a broader market (i.e. volume over price) than I could see Ford doing it.  Plus, Toyota's new solid state batteries might be the game changer to tip the scales. 

-Rob

You could be right.  Except Japans population is aging without a visible correction in site.  Nor does Japan really anymore have the finical   depth to take the risk.   
I see Germany with its recent open border policy's and economic strength as being in a better position. Not only do they have nearly a Million North African immigrants but what about attracting those from the Ukraine and other border countries that feel threatened by Russia's aggression.  
    Finally Russia's capacity for energy storage is at or past it's limits. So it won't be too long before Their military heads home just like they did in Afghanistan.  

I was more directing it towards countries with smaller geographies who are accustom to smaller cars and much shorter trips.  We American's like bigger cars, which as someone who needs to get onto a 75 MPH speed limit toll road to get my hair cut, I totally understand. 

frenchyd said:

In reply to rob_lewis :
  Henry Ford started in 1903 it wasn't until 1923 that prices reached bottom. 

And, from a quick search on the googlz, gas stations weren't starting to be prevalent until the late '20s and and early '30s.

-Rob

alfadriver
alfadriver GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/26/22 4:21 p.m.
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:
alfadriver said:
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

Somebody needs to build a $10,000 car for the upcoming recession. I don't see anybody really interested in doing that right now if anybody even can build something that cheap.

Give them a few years and things may change.

No, they don't.  Just need to build cars.  If you want a $10k car, you can get a used one once the new market is filled up.  Cheap cars like that is the fast way to bankruptcy.  Or at least sustained losses.

With $5 a gallon gasoline and a recession, having a lot full of unsold $60,000 pickups and SUVs might be an even faster way to bankruptcy, or at least a reason for the companies to run off to Washington begging for subsidies again. It has happened before.

They are not going unsold.   Especially with all of the shortage.

And looking back at the time you reference, cheap cars were not selling then, either.  More important, the prediction of only 9M sales a year lasted all of one year, as the actual sales recovered to the 20M path that we were on.

Also, you assume that the cheap cars will get good economy, and that matters.  Cheap cars haven't lead sales for almost a century, and hardly anyone actually buys for fuel economy.  

Pick up trucks have lead sales for many decades- when gas was cheap and when gas was really expensive.  And going down to cars, the top selling car has been a 4 door sedan for as long as I am aware of.  Even when gas was hyper expensive and the economy sucked.

Trying to sell cheap cars is what really almost bankrupted Ford in 2007.  Content was reduced so much to save money that nobody wanted the cars.

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/26/22 4:24 p.m.

In reply to rob_lewis :

Yeh!!! It all takes time.  1903 Ford Motor company starts.  By 1923 costs had been reduced to the point where a brand new Model T could be purchased for $265. At $5 a day that's a little over 10 weeks of wages 

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/26/22 4:24 p.m.

In reply to alfadriver :

What if $6 a gallon gasoline is the new reality? I don't see a long term demand for big expensive vehicles in that case.

alfadriver
alfadriver GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/26/22 4:34 p.m.

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

We will see....  But every time those doom and gloom predictions came around before, they never came true.

Also, one thing you are missing are the increased FE requirements that are being phased in over time.  So even if gas becomes $6/gal, the impact will be lessened.  Let alone, people who buy expensive cars don't worry too much about gas prices.

 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/26/22 4:50 p.m.
alfadriver said:
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:
alfadriver said:
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

Somebody needs to build a $10,000 car for the upcoming recession. I don't see anybody really interested in doing that right now if anybody even can build something that cheap.

Give them a few years and things may change.

No, they don't.  Just need to build cars.  If you want a $10k car, you can get a used one once the new market is filled up.  Cheap cars like that is the fast way to bankruptcy.  Or at least sustained losses.

With $5 a gallon gasoline and a recession, having a lot full of unsold $60,000 pickups and SUVs might be an even faster way to bankruptcy, or at least a reason for the companies to run off to Washington begging for subsidies again. It has happened before.

They are not going unsold.   Especially with all of the shortage.

And looking back at the time you reference, cheap cars were not selling then, either.  More important, the prediction of only 9M sales a year lasted all of one year, as the actual sales recovered to the 20M path that we were on.

Also, you assume that the cheap cars will get good economy, and that matters.  Cheap cars haven't lead sales for almost a century, and hardly anyone actually buys for fuel economy.  

Pick up trucks have lead sales for many decades- when gas was cheap and when gas was really expensive.  And going down to cars, the top selling car has been a 4 door sedan for as long as I am aware of.  Even when gas was hyper expensive and the economy sucked.

Trying to sell cheap cars is what really almost bankrupted Ford in 2007.  Content was reduced so much to save money that nobody wanted the cars.

Wow talk about short sighted. 
 8 billion people in the world.  Trying to compare 340 million rich pampered people to the global economy and base predictions on that?  Aside from that 20% of our population is below the poverty line. They can't get to where the jobs are because they don't have cheap affordable transportation.   
    OK let's work backwards a bit.  Get the cost of basic EV down to ? $10,000 minimal maintenance  copy Saturns Plastic body, no oil changes, no brake work.    Monthly payments around $150 a month.  $20 for electricity.   That will get some people off welfare and in the work force.  ( labor shortage remember).

That's here in America what about the other 7&1/2 Billion people?   Sell solar panels and wind generators with those cars. Another bunch  of companies.    
     
     Look at what Honda did with their 50cc motor cycle.  

rob_lewis
rob_lewis UberDork
5/26/22 4:51 p.m.

I don't think $6/gallon will necessarily be the deciding factor.  It's a contributor, but not the only thing.  Although doom and gloom says we're on a crash course with inflation, wages still seem to be up right now.  The minimum wage hasn't been changed, but $15/hour starting seems to be common around here.  If it stays, $6/gallon may not be as impactful.  However, if we are on a crash course, it will be.  But, I can't imagine oil companies keeping it at that if nobody's buying. 

One problem with EV's is the used market hasn't caught up.  If I'm strapped for cash, I'm not looking at a new car, anyway.  I don't know the numbers, but used ICE vehicles have to be significantly more common than used EV's and probably cheaper.  So, if I need a car for work and am strapped, I'm going to buy ICE and, if I can afford it, buy fuel efficient.  Plus, if I'm maintaining it myself too, I'm more likely to find a used engine for a Camry than a battery pack for a first generation Leaf......

-Rob

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/26/22 4:58 p.m.
alfadriver said:
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:
alfadriver said:
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

Somebody needs to build a $10,000 car for the upcoming recession. I don't see anybody really interested in doing that right now if anybody even can build something that cheap.

Give them a few years and things may change.

No, they don't.  Just need to build cars.  If you want a $10k car, you can get a used one once the new market is filled up.  Cheap cars like that is the fast way to bankruptcy.  Or at least sustained losses.

With $5 a gallon gasoline and a recession, having a lot full of unsold $60,000 pickups and SUVs might be an even faster way to bankruptcy, or at least a reason for the companies to run off to Washington begging for subsidies again. It has happened before.

They are not going unsold.   Especially with all of the shortage.

And looking back at the time you reference, cheap cars were not selling then, either.  More important, the prediction of only 9M sales a year lasted all of one year, as the actual sales recovered to the 20M path that we were on.

Also, you assume that the cheap cars will get good economy, and that matters.  Cheap cars haven't lead sales for almost a century, and hardly anyone actually buys for fuel economy.  

Pick up trucks have lead sales for many decades- when gas was cheap and when gas was really expensive.  And going down to cars, the top selling car has been a 4 door sedan for as long as I am aware of.  Even when gas was hyper expensive and the economy sucked.

Trying to sell cheap cars is what really almost bankrupted Ford in 2007.  Content was reduced so much to save money that nobody wanted the cars.

 Remember 8 billion people that's the market.   Not Middle class America. Well,  retired people will buy a few.  

There is a right way and a wrong way to cut costs. An Electric motor is a whole lot cheaper than an ICE and transmission etc.   build the suspension into the tires.   Have we reached the point where plastics can be made into chassis cheaply yet?        ( remember the Lotus Elite of the late 50's early 60's? ) Whole lotta raw material around the globe waiting to be used for that. Plus what else will we do with all the oil left available?   

wearymicrobe
wearymicrobe PowerDork
5/26/22 5:08 p.m.

GM is already making it in China for about 4500$. Could you take this and add the saftey tech required and a slightly bigger battery for 15K in the united states. YEs but I don't think anyone would buy it. 

 

This tiny car beat Tesla's Model 3 as the best-selling EV in the world for  January and February - The Verge

 

The real answer is electric scooters, it fits 90% of the driving we do around town and to work. They charge super fast with the smaller battery sizes and take up way less space. But again nobody is going to buy hem, and BMW selling the CE04 at 18K USD is not helping the fight. 

 

Super73 C1X Concept Electric Motorcycle First Look [10 Fast Facts]

At the end of the day Ebikes are going to take over I swear it. The USA has been buying close to 400K of them a year for a while now. We bought like 3K electric motorcycles and scooters in the same timeframe. 

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/26/22 5:34 p.m.
frenchyd said:
alfadriver said:
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:
alfadriver said:
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

Somebody needs to build a $10,000 car for the upcoming recession. I don't see anybody really interested in doing that right now if anybody even can build something that cheap.

Give them a few years and things may change.

No, they don't.  Just need to build cars.  If you want a $10k car, you can get a used one once the new market is filled up.  Cheap cars like that is the fast way to bankruptcy.  Or at least sustained losses.

With $5 a gallon gasoline and a recession, having a lot full of unsold $60,000 pickups and SUVs might be an even faster way to bankruptcy, or at least a reason for the companies to run off to Washington begging for subsidies again. It has happened before.

They are not going unsold.   Especially with all of the shortage.

And looking back at the time you reference, cheap cars were not selling then, either.  More important, the prediction of only 9M sales a year lasted all of one year, as the actual sales recovered to the 20M path that we were on.

Also, you assume that the cheap cars will get good economy, and that matters.  Cheap cars haven't lead sales for almost a century, and hardly anyone actually buys for fuel economy.  

Pick up trucks have lead sales for many decades- when gas was cheap and when gas was really expensive.  And going down to cars, the top selling car has been a 4 door sedan for as long as I am aware of.  Even when gas was hyper expensive and the economy sucked.

Trying to sell cheap cars is what really almost bankrupted Ford in 2007.  Content was reduced so much to save money that nobody wanted the cars.

Wow talk about short sighted. 
 8 billion people in the world.  Trying to compare 340 million rich pampered people to the global economy and base predictions on that?  Aside from that 20% of our population is below the poverty line. They can't get to where the jobs are because they don't have cheap affordable transportation.   
    OK let's work backwards a bit.  Get the cost of basic EV down to ? $10,000 minimal maintenance  copy Saturns Plastic body, no oil changes, no brake work.    Monthly payments around $150 a month.  $20 for electricity.   That will get some people off welfare and in the work force.  ( labor shortage remember).

That's here in America what about the other 7&1/2 Billion people?   Sell solar panels and wind generators with those cars. Another bunch  of companies.    
     
     Look at what Honda did with their 50cc motor cycle.  

Volkswagen had a pretty good run selling cheap cars in the 60's and 70's. They built good quality and a unique advertising campaign. A cheap car will never come from Detroit because their whole mentality is upsell, upsell upsell from the factory to the marketing to the dealer. This hasn't changed since the 1950s. Elon Musk has already showed us that we don't need a "dealer". Michigan is a very conservative place. They don't want change. Saturn was doomed from the beginning. Something like this would have to come from the Silicon Valley or another place with a different culture. The whole company would have to be built around it.   It would have to be cheap to buy, cheap to drive and cheap to maintain. Not of this "you have to pull the engine to replace the back three spark plugs" designs. No more "it takes 3 hours to take apart half the engine compartment to replace the battery". Build the car where everything that needs to be worked on would be accessible to the technician. Design something that can be fixed with the fewest billable hours.

Remember when a guy named Steve Wozniak who worked at Hewlett Packard went to his bosses with an idea for a personal computer? Everybody in the company laughed at him. Nobody wanted to buy a "personal computer". Nobody wants a "cheap car" either.

alfadriver
alfadriver GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/26/22 5:57 p.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

Go start your company, then.  Trying to pretend that *someone should* when you think it's easy an obvious should mean a very simple opportunity for you.  Go for it.

alfadriver
alfadriver GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/26/22 6:02 p.m.

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

So who is making these magical cheap cars these days?  You really think this is just a US thing?  

Does Honda still make a CRX?  Last I checked, both the Tundra and the Camry way, way, way outsold their cheap car.

Yugo made the cheap car you ask for- in an economy that should have been perfect for it.  Yet what happened to it?  Do Kia or Hyundai still make the sub $10k car in the US?

Heck, even in the country that has a billion people- most under the poverty level, the Tata Nano failed.  One of the ultimate cheap cars of all time....  

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/26/22 6:20 p.m.
alfadriver said:

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

Yugo made the cheap car you ask for- in an economy that should have been perfect for it.  Yet what happened to it? 

The civil war approached the Zastava factory and they had to close operations.

edit: Looking into it further to refresh my memory, Yugo America had to close operations not just because of supply difficulties but also they had to recall 128k cars for emissions violations.

 

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/26/22 6:25 p.m.

Fiat sold lots of 128s before they sold the design to Yugo.

How many VW beetles did they sell?

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/26/22 6:31 p.m.

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

Fiat ended up buying what was left of Zastava smiley

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