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Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/24/22 9:40 a.m.

When I say producers I am talking about OPEC and the big oil companies, not refiners. I don't think the current President or any future President can pull a lever and force OPEC Countries to pump more oil. They are perfectly happy pumping less oil and getting more for it. Oil companies really don't want to spend more on exploration when they can make lots of money and use it for stock buybacks and profit taking. Then there are all the guys in West Texas that went broke during Covid and the shortage of oil workers and even a shortage of truck drivers to drive the tankers.

We are screwed.

Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter)
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/24/22 9:45 a.m.

Problem: Capitalism

Solution: null

cool

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
5/24/22 10:00 a.m.
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) said:

Problem: Capitalism

Solution: null

cool

I mean communism worked so well.We should just do that

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
5/24/22 10:31 a.m.
bobzilla said:
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) said:

Problem: Capitalism

Solution: null

cool

I mean communism worked so well.We should just do that

I believe his point was something along the lines of that old saying, "Capitalism is the worst possible economic system, except for all the others."

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand UberDork
5/24/22 10:40 a.m.
volvoclearinghouse said:
bobzilla said:
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) said:

Problem: Capitalism

Solution: null

cool

I mean communism worked so well.We should just do that

I believe his point was something along the lines of that old saying, "Capitalism is the worst possible economic system, except for all the others."

lol, yep.   Screw tomorrow, I want to make it all today!

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
5/24/22 11:13 a.m.

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

Sorry, been bombarded lately with the all capitalists are evil and blah blah blah. Todays short fuse isn't helping. 

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
5/24/22 11:14 a.m.
californiamilleghia said:
RX Reven' said:

In reply to wearymicrobe :

If you can get to the 76 Station on West 190 St. in Torrance (you know, the one DIRECTLY across the street from the berking oil refinery), you can get 87 octane for $6.299.

 

And if you go down 8 blocks to 182th st it's $5.65 for 87 octane at Arco

Just sayin......

Arco?...you just gave my fuel injectors a sad.

Besides, that's probably the cash price so you get to roll the COVID dice handling circulated money to save sixty five cents a gallon.

Anyway, if you haven't heard, we're releasing some of our strategic heating oil reserves and pushing a waiver through that will allow it to be used as diesel.

We're so hosed. 

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/24/22 11:16 a.m.

Seems like the Democratic Socialist countries in Europe are paying even more that we are for gas, but they are used to that. They don't drive big trucks and SUVs over there and have more mass transit options, and are less spread out than we are. They like to add big gas taxes to the mix, as do states like California.

Of course if you are already in a tailspin it's too late to start redesigning the plane. You give it full opposite rudder and pull back on the wheel, and if that doesn't work, you brace yourself for the inevitable crash.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/24/22 11:22 a.m.
volvoclearinghouse said:

... Supply & Demand is a good basic tool for discussing markets, but it falls short here.  I don't believe there is a shortage of fuel in the world.  There certainly doesn't seem to be in the U.S. I can go down to my local Citgo and the proprietor will happily sell me all the 87 octane I can fit in my tank for $4.49 per gallon.  I have not heard of anyone not being able to buy gas because there wasn't gas to buy....

First of all, I will say I completely agree with the sentiment, and I really don't get it either, but I have been assured that, stupid as it is (as I stated), it is supply vs demand. 

We get really good examples of it all the time in CA.  There is a refinery problem (there are only few in CA) and gas immediately jumps.  Why does the price go up?  There is NO actual shortage.  I assure you, you can easily buy as much gas as you would ever want at any gas station.  For whatever real world reason, the price jumps.  I suspect some of it has to do with worries about future supplies and problems (futures), which still does not make sense, but I really don't know.  But it happens, every time.

It of course get tricky when you talk about why there is a perceived supply shortage, and why there is less confidence in future supply.  Not a simple answer there I am sure. 

As noted, I have heard of the ACTUAL shortages reported in the Northwest (diesel), but I don't know if that trend has any potential to spread.  I have heard the gas shortages of the 70's where not actual shortages either.

Honestly, if someone has something that explains how this "stupid" system actually works, that makes sense, I would love to read it, because it really doesn't make sense to me.

 

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
5/24/22 11:32 a.m.

As the saying goes, the solution to high gas prices is high gas prices.

The only reason we can buy all the gas we want is because the high prices are forcing others to cut back...if the prices were normal, demand would exceed supply and we'd be seeing "sorry folks, no gas" signs posted at the gas stations.  

 

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
5/24/22 11:57 a.m.
aircooled said:
volvoclearinghouse said:

... Supply & Demand is a good basic tool for discussing markets, but it falls short here.  I don't believe there is a shortage of fuel in the world.  There certainly doesn't seem to be in the U.S. I can go down to my local Citgo and the proprietor will happily sell me all the 87 octane I can fit in my tank for $4.49 per gallon.  I have not heard of anyone not being able to buy gas because there wasn't gas to buy....

First of all, I will say I completely agree with the sentiment, and I really don't get it either, but I have been assured that, stupid as it is (as I stated), it is supply vs demand. 

We get really good examples of it all the time in CA.  There is a refinery problem (there are only few in CA) and gas immediately jumps.  Why does the price go up?  There is NO actual shortage.  I assure you, you can easily buy as much gas as you would ever want at any gas station.  For whatever real world reason, the price jumps.  I suspect some of it has to do with worries about future supplies and problems (futures), which still does not make sense, but I really don't know.  But it happens, every time.

It of course get tricky when you talk about why there is a perceived supply shortage, and why there is less confidence in future supply.  Not a simple answer there I am sure. 

As noted, I have heard of the ACTUAL shortages reported in the Northwest (diesel), but I don't know if that trend has any potential to spread.  I have heard the gas shortages of the 70's where not actual shortages either.

Honestly, if someone has something that explains how this "stupid" system actually works, that makes sense, I would love to read it, because it really doesn't make sense to me.

 

The best explanation I have is that it's something like the stock markets, where a lot of it is just pure speculation and emotion.  Stocks go up and down every day, even if nothing noticeable changes in their business operations.  A quarterly statement comes out every 3 months.  But stock prices change every _second_.

Oil is traded similarly, except its a hard commodity, not a piece of a company.  I still recall back in the black days of 2020, when oil prices briefly went _negative_.  If ever there was a berkeleyed up market, that was it.  "Here, buddy, want some oil?  I'll _pay you_ to take it". 

The way oil companies work can vary, too.  Some play the spot game, trading at whatever the day's price is.  Others buy longer term contracts.  Think about a home heating oil supplier as a micro level example.  Last year they might have offered to lock customers in at $2.89 a gallon.  The customers are happy as heck come March when they need 100 gallons and are paying $2.89 a gallon while the price on the street is $4.29.  The supplier eats it, though.  But if prices had fallen, the customer would still need to buy oil, and would be stuck paying $2.89 even if the price on the street was $1.89. 

I have been told it works this way all the way up to something the size of, say, a Chevron or a Connoco-Phillips.

That article about diesel shortages and reduced refining capacity was pretty illuminating.  Much like other things, this country needs to do more infrastructure investment.  We'll be feeling the effects of what happened in 2020-21 for 5 years on. 

I will say, and again, not to get too partisan, the stimulous package had a lot to do with this inflation we're seeing.  Even fairly progressive economists like Larry Summers are saying it was too much: 

"a comparison of the 2009 stimulus and what is now being proposed is instructive. In 2009, the gap between actual and estimated potential output was about $80 billion a month and increasing. The 2009 stimulus measures provided an incremental $30 billion to $40 billion a month during 2009 — an amount equal to about half the output shortfall....In contrast, recent Congressional Budget Office estimates suggest that with the already enacted $900 billion package — but without any new stimulus — the gap between actual and potential output will decline from about $50 billion a month at the beginning of the year to $20 billion a month at its end. The proposed stimulus will total in the neighborhood of $150 billion a month, even before consideration of any follow-on measures. That is at least three times the size of the output shortfall.  In other words, whereas the Obama stimulus was about half as large as the output shortfall, the proposed Biden stimulus is three times as large as the projected shortfall. Relative to the size of the gap being addressed, it is six times as large."

All that cash went somewhere- and now it's gone, but the prices are inflated to the new, higher, and now, non-existent demand.

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/24/22 11:58 a.m.

In reply to RX Reven' :

Until people who have to buy gas to get to work cut back on other things. Then it is a problem for restaurants, Netflix, Target, WalMart, the stock market...

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
5/24/22 12:13 p.m.
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to RX Reven' :

Until people who have to buy gas to get to work cut back on other things. Then it is a problem for restaurants, Netflix, Target, WalMart, the stock market...

I'm afraid we're already there.

The discount retailers are reporting disappointing earnings which indicates that consumers aren't just shifting to lower cost alternatives, they're laying low and not purchasing anything.

Next stop, increasing unemployment.

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/24/22 12:37 p.m.

Then when people are out of work and have less money to spend less gas will be purchased and gas prices will go down again. Only this time if they stay up for a long time, people won't just move to smaller cars, they will move to electric cars, leading to even less demand. You would think the Saudis would realize this. Keep oil in short supply and expensive long enough and people will find alternatives.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/24/22 1:26 p.m.
volvoclearinghouse said:

 

The best explanation I have is that it's something like the stock markets, where a lot of it is just pure speculation and emotion....

Thanks for the explanation.  I am sure the futures market adds all sorts of weirdness (and seemingly illogical moves) to the pricing.

jwagner (Forum Supporter)
jwagner (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand Reader
5/24/22 2:30 p.m.

Next time you hit the gas pump and see the LOYALTY button, hit that and punch in your area code and 867-5309 (Jenny, oh Jenny...)  I've gotten as much as $.90/gal discount.  If it defaults to the $.03/gal discount I'll try another area code.  Locks after two tries at my local station.

This also works in pretty much every grocery store, pharmacy, etc. that I've tried it in.

PS:  The couple of oil stocks I'm still holding (trying to divest from carbon) are just killing it.  Wonder if that's related to oil/gas prices...?

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/25/22 12:29 p.m.
RX Reven' said:
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to RX Reven' :

Until people who have to buy gas to get to work cut back on other things. Then it is a problem for restaurants, Netflix, Target, WalMart, the stock market...

I'm afraid we're already there.

The discount retailers are reporting disappointing earnings which indicates that consumers aren't just shifting to lower cost alternatives, they're laying low and not purchasing anything.

Next stop, increasing unemployment.

Yep. Hiring freezes are already here.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/biggest-tech-companies-pause-hiring-17185591.php

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia UltraDork
5/25/22 4:16 p.m.
jwagner (Forum Supporter) said:

Next time you hit the gas pump and see the LOYALTY button, hit that and punch in your area code and 867-5309 (Jenny, oh Jenny...)  I've gotten as much as $.90/gal discount.  If it defaults to the $.03/gal discount I'll try another area code.  Locks after two tries at my local station.

This also works in pretty much every grocery store, pharmacy, etc. that I've tried it in.

can you tell me how and why this works ?   Thanks

hybridmomentspass
hybridmomentspass HalfDork
5/25/22 5:06 p.m.

Today I had to fill up the MR2. Freaking premium.

I spent almost 60 bucks filling her up with 11 gallons.

While I shook my head at the price, guy across from me asked how I was doing, just, you know, casual country conversation - Good brother...well, 'till this gas bill"

He was in a full sized pickup, small business owner, said he just filled up yesterday and now was back at it. He said, "this is wild, who could have imagined."

 

Fact is, things have changed. A lot. And it stinks.
I dont care what they pay in Europe, I know they pay more, Ive been, Ive had to buy the gas etc. We're comfy here. 18 months ago we were under 2 bucks for regular, now it's 4.35-4.40 around this area. When you see a 4.29 you get stoked...that sucks.

bmw88rider
bmw88rider GRM+ Memberand UberDork
5/25/22 5:12 p.m.

In reply to californiamilleghia :

People don't want to give their phone number to the companies so they use a fake number and 867-5309 is recognizable. So you go to one of the gas stations that have a loyalty number entry and there is a good chance you can cash in on others reward points.

Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter)
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/25/22 5:15 p.m.
volvoclearinghouse said:
bobzilla said:
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) said:

Problem: Capitalism

Solution: null

cool

I mean communism worked so well.We should just do that

I believe his point was something along the lines of that old saying, "Capitalism is the worst possible economic system, except for all the others."

More or less. That and the constant reluctance to make capitalism more evenly distributed. It makes resource hoarding both possible and where the end game goes. The purpose of government is to put in just the right amount of pressure to make that incentive low enough that it's not worth the journey. Unfortunately here corporations have more rights than citizens and we know who pays for all those campaigns laugh

As a small business owner, and a large business builder, I'm still cynical. It's hard to not be.

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
5/27/22 8:34 a.m.

I would bet money that sometime in the next few years someone in Congress floats the idea of a second "Cash 4 Clunkerz" program, except this time it's a credit towards an EV for trading in a ICE powered vehicle. They might call it "Engines to Electrons".  Or maybe "Cash for Gassers".

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
5/29/22 7:15 p.m.

I love the "capitalism is bad" argument.  How would you know?  We don't have capitalism.  We have chrony capitalism at best.  Price fixing, taxes, tariffs, licensing, permits, regulation, spot markets, central banking, monopolies, environmental governance scores, carbon taxes, treaties (NAFTA, Paris accords, etc)....  all of these are not capitalism.  All the bad economic things we are experiencing are because of socialism and it's awful implementation.  I'm sure going full communist will be worse.  History proves it, but that won't stop most of you from clammoring for it.  
 

So given that we don't have and haven't had capitalism since the earliest days of the republic, explain how capitalism is bad.  

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
5/29/22 7:23 p.m.

I paid $4.09 a gallon today. I know it must be more in other parts of the  country.

One of my neighbors offered me his full sized pickup today for $10,500. I just laughed. I'm sure he would like to get rid of it, but I don't want one. laugh

Wayslow
Wayslow Dork
5/29/22 7:41 p.m.

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

Are you sure you want to go back to fire departments for profit? How about disbanding police forces and making them private for profit entities too?  Large corporations can afford private security forces,  can you? Waste disposal, drinking water, road construction, sewage systems and the military are all forms of socialism. Be careful what you wish for.

 

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