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aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/1/22 12:29 p.m.

For a bit of perspective on where all this money is flowing to (US sources of oil):

Where The U.S. Gets Its Oil

Of note of course is that it is a global market, set by global supply, so if it costs $40 a barrel to produce (approximate US and Canada costs, Saudi Arabia is around $10!), anything above that is profit. Is it unreasonable profit?  Well, as noted, it's a global market, set by global supply and demand.

I guess you can at least be slightly comforted by the fact that most of the US money is going into the US and Canada (free toques for everyone!!) and not the middle east.  But to be clear, globally, Saudi Arabia is sucking in HUGE amounts of money now!!

https://www.npr.org/2012/04/11/150444802/where-does-america-get-oil-you-may-be-surprised

https://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/the-cost-to-produce-a-barrel-of-oil/index.html

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/1/22 1:06 p.m.
RX Reven' said:

One oil industry analyst (sorry, I don't recall his name at the moment) just forecasted $150 a barrel / $6.00 national average for regular within the next few weeks.

The reasons he gave were that OPEC hasn't been able to ramp up supply as much as they thought they could and domestically, we aren't able to ramp up supply either due to labor and construction equipment shortages and because the permits that are being issued are for relatively unproductive / inefficient locations.

Not to be an alarmist but he went so far as to say that rationing may need to be implemented soon.

I've seen a few different institutions warning of '70s-level gas shortages since around the beginning of the Ukraine invasion, I'm starting to think that the lockdowns in China are the only reason we've dodged this so far.

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia UltraDork
6/1/22 1:48 p.m.

I think the high prices  have cut enough demand  to lower the chance of shortages, 

the high prices just make the poor people drive less if possible.

back in the 70s-80s the shortages did not raise prices like this.

but the real  problem was not planning a trip somewhere when you were not sure you could buy gas to get home.....

We had lots of unsafe 5 gallon containers full of gas , and an even number and an odd number license plate car !

Erich
Erich UberDork
6/1/22 2:12 p.m.

If gas prices stay up, another possible effect would be housing prices near job centers soaring, even more than it already is, and population of distant suburbs falling. The large-scale rise of remote work has probably cushioned this a bit though. 

 

Cheap gas and freeways have subsidized the suburbanization of America, and we never built transit in any real numbers for an eventuality like this. 

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
6/1/22 2:17 p.m.
Erich said:

If gas prices stay up, another possible effect would be housing prices near job centers soaring, even more than it already is, and population of distant suburbs falling. The large-scale rise of remote work has probably cushioned this a bit though. 

 

Cheap gas and freeways have subsidized the suburbanization of America, and we never built transit in any real numbers for an eventuality like this. 

I don't want to hear that. My property taxes already went up this year. I am getting whacked by both higher property taxes and higher gas prices.

 

einy (Forum Supporter)
einy (Forum Supporter) Dork
6/1/22 9:46 p.m.

Bought gas this morning at $4.49 a gallon and felt unhappy about that.  Drive past the same station one hour later, and it was $4.79.  On a Wednesday, if that matters.  So, a nearly 7% increase ... just like that.  

wae
wae PowerDork
6/1/22 10:35 p.m.

Yeah, the place down the road on the corner was $4.20ish at about 1900 last night when I went over to the shop and on the way back at about 2100 it had jumped to $4.70.  Fortunately, Costco was still at $4.06 today, so I saved $24 (!) by filling up there. 

hybridmomentspass
hybridmomentspass HalfDork
6/2/22 10:37 a.m.

Local sheetz last night was 4.21 at about 7pm.

This morning at around 9:30am I saw it was 4.49...

 

 

Welp, I got a track day today, excited to see how much premium is

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
6/2/22 10:55 a.m.
wae said:

Yeah, the place down the road on the corner was $4.20ish at about 1900 last night when I went over to the shop and on the way back at about 2100 it had jumped to $4.70.  Fortunately, Costco was still at $4.06 today, so I saved $24 (!) by filling up there. 

I was looking at the line the other day at Costco and wondered to myself:  "How much would gas have to cost for me to wait in that line?"  I could save almost $3!

Then I realized that as gas prices go up the line will get longer, and I'm not sure there is ever a point where the "desire to save money" and "willingness to tolerate costco gas line" will ever cross.

wae
wae PowerDork
6/2/22 11:05 a.m.
ProDarwin said:
wae said:

Yeah, the place down the road on the corner was $4.20ish at about 1900 last night when I went over to the shop and on the way back at about 2100 it had jumped to $4.70.  Fortunately, Costco was still at $4.06 today, so I saved $24 (!) by filling up there. 

I was looking at the line the other day at Costco and wondered to myself:  "How much would gas have to cost for me to wait in that line?"  I could save almost $3!

Then I realized that as gas prices go up the line will get longer, and I'm not sure there is ever a point where the "desire to save money" and "willingness to tolerate costco gas line" will ever cross.

It hasn't been *that* bad here, locally so far.  We wind up driving in the general direction of Costco somewhat frequently, so when the line is short or non-existent I'll duck in and top off.  When the tank starts getting low, I'll try to time it as best as I can, but I think my worst wait has been about 15 minutes.  When you're buying 40 gallons of gas and saving $0.20/gallon, it starts to be worth it.  Saving $24 on a fill up is a no-brainer for me.  I just wind the windows down, shut the truck off, crack some sunflower seeds, listen to a podcast, and enjoy the day.

Going to and from the Rolex in the RV this year, though, we saw some crazy lines at the Costco pumps!  But that equation is even more in favor of waiting when you're buying 70 gallons of gas....

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
6/2/22 11:25 a.m.
wae said:

When you're buying 40 gallons of gas and saving $0.20/gallon, it starts to be worth it.  Saving $24 on a fill up is a no-brainer for me. 

Maths... 40 * 0.2 = $8 right?  In my case its ~ 10 gallons at 20-30 cents.  So $2 or $3.  at $8 per fill up I might wait in line though.  But I feel like the line I see is often in excess of 15 mins. 

And of course I'm never near empty when I'm at Costco.  So I can do a half fill and save like $1-$1.50 lol

KyAllroad
KyAllroad MegaDork
6/2/22 11:30 a.m.

Loacally to me Kroger (large grocery chain) offers fuel points where each dollar spent (and multiple points per dollar on pharmacy costs) adds up and when cashed in you can get 10 cents off each gallon for 100 points used.  Up to 1.00 dollar per gallon in a transaction maxing out at 35 gallons.

All of this means we take both cars and a couple of 5 gallon jugs when we fill up and only cash in points when we use it for all 35 gallons.  

 

Booze is available at Kroger as well so most of my spending is through the one store.

porschenut
porschenut HalfDork
6/2/22 11:31 a.m.

We have a BJs membership, the savings on gas alone is impressive.  GasBuddy consistently shows it as the lowest price and with their credit card we get another dime off.  Add in the additional savings when some stuff you need adds to the price off and it pays the membership cost in about 4 months.  Lines? Sometimes 4 or 5 car wait, but I drive up to the pump more often than waiting.  

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
6/2/22 11:56 a.m.

Not gas related but I picked up some fast food take-out for my family last night.  All of the prices on the illuminated  menu board had been taped over "ask manager for current pricing". surprise

In terms of Costo, the lines are highly day & time dependent...I pass right by one on my way to work so if I hit the road a little early I can be at Costco by 7:00 AM and pull right up to a pump.

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
6/2/22 1:54 p.m.

In reply to RX Reven' :

Yep.  Fuel prices hit everybody.  You might drive an electric car, but that truck delivering your food is still powered by Rudolph Diesel. 

In term of budget, we had been going out to eat once almost every week during the pandemic, when things were open.  But it's gotten too expensive- gas, beer, food- all at least 25% costlier.  So we go out every 2-3 weeks now. 

Wife just filled up her 'Burban today while out running errands.  It had been 4.49 at the Citgo we usually go to; today she said it was 4.51.  Still the cheapest place in town. 

JesseWolfe
JesseWolfe Reader
6/3/22 6:08 a.m.

This "short" 86 mile commute to work training this morning in my 12' JSW TDi, made fuel prices hurt a little less.  Granted, I'm still paying 25% more per gallon for diesel. 

 

Indy - Guy
Indy - Guy UltimaDork
6/6/22 3:57 p.m.

Gas just jumped to $5.25 today for regular unleaded.  Sigh. crying

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/6/22 4:14 p.m.

In reply to JesseWolfe :

Remembering the near 50 MPG my 2003 TDI wagon would get almost makes me wish I'd kept and fixed it.  However, for as much as I drive these days, the fuel costs savings might be more than offset by the additional ownership costs (insurance, annual registration and inspection, etc.).

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
6/6/22 4:21 p.m.

Filled my Yamaha Zuma yesterday. It cost me $4.50. devil

Then I took a $20 bill and bought my Miata NA a half a tank to run around town.

How soon before all those Suburbans and F150s go to the crusher?

 

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia UltraDork
6/6/22 4:24 p.m.

Diesel at the cheap local place is over $7 a gallon here , 

regular 87 a little under $6 

I would hate to have long commutes everyday...

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
6/6/22 4:32 p.m.

In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
6/6/22 4:50 p.m.

How soon before we have a "Cash for Guzzlers" program where you can trade your big SUV in for an EV. You know it's coming.

preach (dudeist priest)
preach (dudeist priest) GRM+ Memberand Dork
6/6/22 5:29 p.m.

$5.55/gal for 93 today for the Golf.

Fueled by Caffeine
Fueled by Caffeine MegaDork
6/6/22 5:54 p.m.

I'm waiting with cash in hand for big suv prices to drop.  It happened after Katrina.  

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/6/22 6:54 p.m.

One more cent!  One more cent!   We can do IT!

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