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volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse PowerDork
5/17/22 3:22 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

That's interesting, I hadn't heard of that shooting. Mostly the news has been preoccupied with the events in Buffalo, probably because that sort of racism makes far better news stories. 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/17/22 4:36 p.m.
Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to frenchyd :

I would think flying no/wrong flag is a violation of the Geneva convention.  Mine layers are not civilian ships, they would be deploying materiel and not just transporting it.

I'm pretty sure that such technicalities are pretty well ignored at sea.   It's not like Russia's playing exactly according to the rules no is it?  

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/17/22 4:39 p.m.
bobzilla said:

China invades Russian territory, tactical nukes aren't going to be what the Kremlin uses. Beijing will be glowing and that population advantage is now a liability. 

That would pretty well ensure that Moscow and other major Russian cities would disappear to be replaced with Nuclear winter for everyone. 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
5/17/22 4:56 p.m.
aircooled said:

On the aspect of China.  As noted, I don't think there is much to gain other then some minor national pride for China to take back some of the Russian territory.  Clearly, their focus is Taiwan.

One interesting aspect of that came up this weekend locally.  You may have seen it in the news, but a man (I think he may have been born in China?) went into a church full of Taiwanese, in California, and shot the place up (killing one, and injuring a few).  Certainly horrific, but the even more bazaar part of it is the supposed justification.  Something along the lines of: the issues between China and Taiwan drove him to it.  Clearly the guy is nutso, and this is just a justification, but it's not entirely different from general Chinese attitude toward Taiwan and almost as ridiculous.

It's interesting to see Global Times (Chinese government propaganda news site) story on it.  They note the shooting, note that the victims are Asian, and of course highlight racial tensions in the US (which they seem to love to highlight, and I suspect are "helping"). Nothing else.

What realistic threat does Taiwan (or these Taiwanese church goers) have to China?  The typical Chinese line is that they are ramping up the threat and threatening rhetoric. You mean the tiny island with 1/60th of the population and virtually no means to attack?  That same island you have made many many feint attacks at... is threatening you?  The threat that Taiwan is drawing closer to the west... which is primarily because of your threats....  

It's a bit like someone getting mad because someone else keeps putting up their arms like a boxer... how aggressive... maybe if you stopped making punching motions at their face...

Its all sounding very similar to the Ukrainian situation.

China lacks raw materials. Full stop.

     Due North of China are totally undeveloped land  filled with Oil, lumber, metals, gold.  Most of all Water. 
  Most of the population of China is crowded into the eastern part.  Because the western portion is too arid.  
    With a short Sojourn due North China solves all its major problems.  OK they have to step on some countries toes a bit.  That's a diplomatic issue.  Not one of capability. Russia can't effectively fight a little country like Afghanistan or Ukraine .  How would they ever take on China and the Ukraine  while watching over their shoulder for NATO?  Insert something here about a two front war.

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
5/17/22 4:56 p.m.
frenchyd said:
bobzilla said:

China invades Russian territory, tactical nukes aren't going to be what the Kremlin uses. Beijing will be glowing and that population advantage is now a liability. 

That would pretty well ensure that Moscow and other major Russian cities would disappear to be replaced with Nuclear winter for everyone. 

I'm not sure Moscovites would notice the difference beween nuclear winter and normal winter. 

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa PowerDork
5/17/22 6:31 p.m.
aircooled said:

Certainly horrific, but the even more bazaar part of it is the supposed justification.  Something along the lines of: the issues between China and Taiwan drove him to it.  Clearly the guy is nutso, and this is just a justification, but it's not entirely different from general Chinese attitude toward Taiwan and almost as ridiculous.

This is nowhere near the reason for him doing this.  Guy was on a downward spiral for quite a while.  He's got a bit of a sad story, actually.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-05-17/months-before-laguna-woods-shooting-suspects-life-was-in-free-fall

High points: wife divorced him while she had stage 4 lung cancer
Got severely beaten when he tried to collect late rent several years ago
Had to sell the condo he owned, new owners priced him out of being able to rent and he ended up homeless.

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa PowerDork
5/17/22 6:32 p.m.
frenchyd said:
Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to frenchyd :

I would think flying no/wrong flag is a violation of the Geneva convention.  Mine layers are not civilian ships, they would be deploying materiel and not just transporting it.

I'm pretty sure that such technicalities are pretty well ignored at sea.   It's not like Russia's playing exactly according to the rules no is it?  

Uh huh, sure.  War crimes are something to just calmly ignore.

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa PowerDork
5/17/22 6:33 p.m.
frenchyd said:
bobzilla said:

China invades Russian territory, tactical nukes aren't going to be what the Kremlin uses. Beijing will be glowing and that population advantage is now a liability. 

That would pretty well ensure that Moscow and other major Russian cities would disappear to be replaced with Nuclear winter for everyone. 

Nuclear war is an obsolete theory, according to current weather models.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/17/22 7:02 p.m.
Mr_Asa said:
..

....This is nowhere near the reason for him doing this. ...

High points: wife divorced him while she had stage 4 lung cancer
Got severely beaten when he tried to collect late rent several years ago
Had to sell the condo he owned, new owners priced him out of being able to rent and he ended up homeless.

And for those reasons, he goes into an entirely Tawanese congregation and shoots it up?  This act seems pretty clearly targeted at Tawanese.  As noted, he is clearly distrurbed (most likely pushed over the edge by what you pointed out) 

From the article you linked:

...Chou told Orellana he was born in Taiwan but considered himself Chinese. He believed China and Taiwan were one country, Orellana said.  

“To him, there’s no border,” he added.....

...Authorities said they have found notes in Chou’s car stating his belief that Taiwan should not be independent from China. The FBI is investigating the attack as a hate crime....

I saw an interview with an old roomate of his, and he talked about his hatred for Tawain.  Seeing that he lived / worked / served  there, his ex-wife is now there etc. certainly adds more context to the hatred, but I still stand by my observation that his hatred of Tawain is as irrational, and seems similar to, the thought process that the Chinese government takes, which I would highly suspect influenced it.

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
5/17/22 7:04 p.m.
Mr_Asa said:
frenchyd said:
bobzilla said:

China invades Russian territory, tactical nukes aren't going to be what the Kremlin uses. Beijing will be glowing and that population advantage is now a liability. 

That would pretty well ensure that Moscow and other major Russian cities would disappear to be replaced with Nuclear winter for everyone. 

Nuclear war is an obsolete theory, according to current weather models.

Is it possible the obvious solution has been staring us in the face all along? Offset global warming with nuclear winter! It's so simple! It's science! Everybody wins! cheeky

Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself
Russian Warship, Go Berkeley Yourself PowerDork
5/17/22 7:09 p.m.
volvoclearinghouse said:

In reply to aircooled :

That's interesting, I hadn't heard of that shooting. Mostly the news has been preoccupied with the events in Buffalo, probably because that sort of racism makes far better news stories. 

I think the fact that 10 people were murdered might have made it pretty newsworthy...

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/17/22 7:12 p.m.

Some tidbits:

- More interviews with surrendered Russians talking about driving trucks taken out of long term storage that break down at an alarming rate.

- The defenders in the Asov steel plant (Mariopul) have been given the OK to surrender.  I believe there is some sort of agreement setup for a prisoner swap (the Ukrainians of course have plenty) that is conditional on the the care that is given to the surrendered Asov defenders, who you will remember, are part of the somewhat Nazi adjacent, in some cases, Asov battalion.  That should be interesting..

- There are rumors that the Ukrainians are setting up for a fairly major offensive.  This may be a reason why those subs where moved.  Not sure they will go for Crimea first, or even try to take it as one of the early steps, but they could get a lot closer, as in missile range.

- Russia has been attacking rail lines / bridges going south out of Odessa.  Why would they possibly want to do that? Maybe reinforcements coming that way?  Well, also the only way to get the large stores of grain out of Odessa into Romania.  The Russians also attacked a fertilizer storage area.  So, it does not look like Putin is terribly concerned with starving the world... shocking..

No Time
No Time SuperDork
5/17/22 7:18 p.m.
02Pilot said:
Mr_Asa said:
frenchyd said:
bobzilla said:

China invades Russian territory, tactical nukes aren't going to be what the Kremlin uses. Beijing will be glowing and that population advantage is now a liability. 

That would pretty well ensure that Moscow and other major Russian cities would disappear to be replaced with Nuclear winter for everyone. 

Nuclear war is an obsolete theory, according to current weather models.

Is it possible the obvious solution has been staring us in the face all along? Offset global warming with nuclear winter! It's so simple! It's science! Everybody wins! cheeky

The problem is the really strong warm front and high pressure system that comes through for many locations ahead of the nuclear winter. 

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
5/17/22 7:54 p.m.
No Time said:
02Pilot said:
Mr_Asa said:
frenchyd said:
bobzilla said:

China invades Russian territory, tactical nukes aren't going to be what the Kremlin uses. Beijing will be glowing and that population advantage is now a liability. 

That would pretty well ensure that Moscow and other major Russian cities would disappear to be replaced with Nuclear winter for everyone. 

Nuclear war is an obsolete theory, according to current weather models.

Is it possible the obvious solution has been staring us in the face all along? Offset global warming with nuclear winter! It's so simple! It's science! Everybody wins! cheeky

The problem is the really strong warm front and high pressure system that comes through for many locations ahead of the nuclear winter. 

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/18/22 11:13 a.m.

Key Takeaways

  • The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them to Ukraine as part of yet-to-be-negotiated prisoner exchanges.
  • The announcement of the likely conditional surrender generated outrage in the Russian information space and demands in the Russian Duma for laws prohibiting exchanging the surrendered defenders of Azovstal.
  • Russian forces continued to make limited advances in Donbas, primarily focused on setting conditions for the Battle of Severodonetsk.

The second point is something I would expect, considering these prisoners are "the Nazi's we have been looking for".

There is some expectation that some Russian prisoners will not want to be exchanged back.

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
5/19/22 10:56 a.m.

Some information on Russian civilian shipping in military use and the question of the Montreux Convention that I had not seen before in this piece.

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
5/19/22 11:15 a.m.
frenchyd said:
aircooled said:

On the aspect of China.  As noted, I don't think there is much to gain other then some minor national pride for China to take back some of the Russian territory.  Clearly, their focus is Taiwan.

One interesting aspect of that came up this weekend locally.  You may have seen it in the news, but a man (I think he may have been born in China?) went into a church full of Taiwanese, in California, and shot the place up (killing one, and injuring a few).  Certainly horrific, but the even more bazaar part of it is the supposed justification.  Something along the lines of: the issues between China and Taiwan drove him to it.  Clearly the guy is nutso, and this is just a justification, but it's not entirely different from general Chinese attitude toward Taiwan and almost as ridiculous.

It's interesting to see Global Times (Chinese government propaganda news site) story on it.  They note the shooting, note that the victims are Asian, and of course highlight racial tensions in the US (which they seem to love to highlight, and I suspect are "helping"). Nothing else.

What realistic threat does Taiwan (or these Taiwanese church goers) have to China?  The typical Chinese line is that they are ramping up the threat and threatening rhetoric. You mean the tiny island with 1/60th of the population and virtually no means to attack?  That same island you have made many many feint attacks at... is threatening you?  The threat that Taiwan is drawing closer to the west... which is primarily because of your threats....  

It's a bit like someone getting mad because someone else keeps putting up their arms like a boxer... how aggressive... maybe if you stopped making punching motions at their face...

Its all sounding very similar to the Ukrainian situation.

China lacks raw materials. Full stop.

     Due North of China are totally undeveloped land  filled with Oil, lumber, metals, gold.  Most of all Water. 
  Most of the population of China is crowded into the eastern part.  Because the western portion is too arid.  
    With a short Sojourn due North China solves all its major problems.  OK they have to step on some countries toes a bit.  That's a diplomatic issue.  Not one of capability. Russia can't effectively fight a little country like Afghanistan or Ukraine .  How would they ever take on China and the Ukraine  while watching over their shoulder for NATO?  Insert something here about a two front war.

I've read some discussions about how China doesn't need to make any military action into Russia. They'll simply make investments there, send people there to oversee those investments, and eventually take over organically over time. In the relatively sparsely populated areas of eastern Russia, such a plan might not take very long. 

As some have mentioned a few times - the Chinese are excellent at playing the "long game" and thinking long-term in ways western cultures seem to have difficulty with. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/19/22 11:57 a.m.

Yeah, no, I think you hit it on the head there.  That is essentially what their Belt and Road project is.  Spending / loaning huge amount of money in various countries which obligates those countries to China.  One of those countries is Italy, which is why "something" appeared there a few years back.... 

In the case of Russia, as you noted, they will probably just buy stuff up on the cheap.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces are continuing to inflict air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant, indicating that a remnant of Ukrainian defense is still in the plant despite evacuations over the last few days.
  • Russian occupying authorities are reportedly planning to level the Azovstal Steel Plant after completing its capture, which directly undermines the large strategic economic importance of capturing the plant.
  • Russian forces continued to prepare for an assault on Severodonetsk and intensified operations around Lyman.
  • Russian forces continued to prioritize holding positions around the Russian border to prevent further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv City and will likely continue to do so at the expense of deploying additional reinforcements to other axes of advance.
  • Russian troops focused on maintaining their positions on the Southern Axis and on conducting rocket, missile, and artillery strikes along the frontline.

If the Russians are indeed going to destroy the Azov steel plant, that is an interesting development.  Not only does it indicate that they have no plans to hold and put the plant into use for themselves but also that they are making a spiteful move to destroy an important part of Ukrainian infrastructure (plenty of evidence they have been doing this for a while of course).

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/19/22 9:11 p.m.

Some tidbits

- Prisoner statements described that in his battalion it was becoming a thing for soldiers to shoot themselves to get out of combat.  The commander became aware of that and made a visit to the hospital.  If he saw a suspicious wound, he would ask the soldier if he could walk.  If he said no, he would shoot him.  So, not going good there!

- Ever the clever Ukrainians, the soldiers who surrendered in Azov where all recorded as to their names and condition when surrendering (sent through Starlink connections).  Theoretically this will make it less likely the Russians will kill and torture them if they want their guys back... theoretically..

- All those people in the talk show linked previously talking about how bad things where going and how the world has ganged up against Russia... are back on the air the next day!  Not dead!  This may be an indication of a bit of an "out" for Russia.  You know, the victim of a cruel world... woe are they!

- In adjacent new, it look like Iran is suspected to have multiple A-bombs ready to go within 6 months.  Don't worry though, the US is in negotiations with them with all contact of course going though... Russia....   In other news, Saudi Arabia is rumored to be in negotiation with Pakistan to "rent" some nuclear capable missiles to be placed in Saudi Arabia.  If you want to worry about nuclear war, that is the far more likely direction. 

- Oh, and India has stated they will not export any grain.  Sri Lanka (off the coast of India if you don't know) is in deep doo-doo since their prime minister thought it was a great idea to mandate all organic agriculture (resulting in an entirely predictable crop failures).  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/18/a-food-crisis-looms-in-sri-lanka-as-farmers-give-up-on-planting

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/19/22 9:25 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

Interesting about the Ukrainian records/communication.  That shows that they care in their own way about the returning soldiers while at the same time doing some good counter propaganda.

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
5/19/22 9:53 p.m.
aircooled said:

- In adjacent new, it look like Iran is suspected to have multiple A-bombs ready to go within 6 months.  Don't worry though, the US is in negotiations with them with all contact of course going though... Russia....   In other news, Saudi Arabia is rumored to be in negotiation with Pakistan to "rent" some nuclear capable missiles to be placed in Saudi Arabia.  If you want to worry about nuclear war, that is the far more likely direction.

Israel just conducted an exercise called Chariots of Fire simulating a major attack on Iran. I'm sure this is entirely coincidental and has nothing to do with the possibility of Iran achieving nuclear weapons. Nope. Nothing at all.

 

Stampie
Stampie GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/19/22 11:42 p.m.
02Pilot said:
No Time said:
02Pilot said:
Mr_Asa said:
frenchyd said:
bobzilla said:

China invades Russian territory, tactical nukes aren't going to be what the Kremlin uses. Beijing will be glowing and that population advantage is now a liability. 

That would pretty well ensure that Moscow and other major Russian cities would disappear to be replaced with Nuclear winter for everyone. 

Nuclear war is an obsolete theory, according to current weather models.

Is it possible the obvious solution has been staring us in the face all along? Offset global warming with nuclear winter! It's so simple! It's science! Everybody wins! cheeky

The problem is the really strong warm front and high pressure system that comes through for many locations ahead of the nuclear winter. 

 

No wonder why that generation has so many issues.  I'll translate "Hey be ready to die at any moment but do some stuff that'll make you feel like you did something."

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/19/22 11:49 p.m.

In reply to Stampie :

Whaddaya mean "that generation"?  My elementary school in 1983 had a fallout shelter with big "radioactive" signage, and I remember doing duck and cover drills.

 

Granted, those may have been tornado drills, but you are far more likely to be killed in a tornado than a nuclear war.  So far as we know, nobody has died from one in over 75 years (although there are rumors that the USSR and China had an exchange in the mid 1970s) but people die from tornadoes every year.

Floating Doc (Forum Supporter)
Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
5/20/22 6:53 a.m.

Ha, I was in elementary school, in Florida, close to an Air Force base, during the Cuban missile crisis.

Duck and cover!

02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
5/20/22 8:08 a.m.

In reply to Stampie :

I posted that one because it's iconic and well-known, but I have a trove of Cold War public information films that I use in my classes. They are absolutely fascinating. Without question, my favorite is "The House in the Middle" from 1954. It's got everything: nuclear terror, suburbia, social pressure to conform, and crass commercialism (it's sponsored by a made-up civil defense-sounding organization that was sponsored by a paint industry trade group), and produced with full US government cooperation.

 

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