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02Pilot
02Pilot UberDork
10/5/22 6:15 a.m.
CrustyRedXpress said:

 

02Pilot :

Your approach operates on the premise that Ukraine has the ability to steer policy, which is only true with Western acquiescence.

But Ukraine is steering western policy through victories in the battlefield and information space. Originally the western policy was to get Zelensky out of Kyiv when the bombs started falling. That policy changed rapidly when Ukraine showed it could fight and defend Kyiv, and again when they showed they could handle advanced weaponry.

I think Ukraine is slightly more of an equal in this relationship than you give them credit for. They're providing a once-in-a generation opportunity for the western world to deal some body blows to a dictator who has meddled extensively in our electoral process but has, until now, been mostly untouchable because of domestic politics.

There's a subtle difference here. Ukraine may be influencing Western policy by demonstrating greater capability than expected, but they are only able to do this because the interests of the two groups remain in alignment, more or less. Ukraine still has no ability to coerce the West in the event their objectives diverge (except perhaps by suicidally attacking into Russia proper, then pleading for help), whereas the West certainly has the ability to coerce Ukraine vis a vis the flow of support.

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
10/5/22 8:18 a.m.
CrustyRedXpress said:

 

02Pilot :

Your approach operates on the premise that Ukraine has the ability to steer policy, which is only true with Western acquiescence.

But Ukraine is steering western policy through victories in the battlefield and information space. Originally the western policy was to get Zelensky out of Kyiv when the bombs started falling. That policy changed rapidly when Ukraine showed it could fight and defend Kyiv, and again when they showed they could handle advanced weaponry.

I think Ukraine is slightly more of an equal in this relationship than you give them credit for. They're providing a once-in-a generation opportunity for the western world to deal some body blows to a dictator who has meddled extensively in our electoral process but has, until now, been mostly untouchable because of domestic politics. 

 

 

 

Yes this, except Russia has been meddling since at least 1960

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
10/5/22 8:21 a.m.
alfadriver said:
aircooled said:
alfadriver said:

...On that, why should Ukraine suffer because russians moved there when it was all the USSR?  It's akin to Germany claiming the Studentenland or Alsace.  russia has more than enough of a country to live in- go back there if it's that big of a deal.  These lines were drawn in the '20s by the Soviet Union.

The point is, there are very few "Ukrainians" there anymore.   

I would love to see Russia loose that territory, but, as stated, they will only be trouble for Ukraine (and a huge target for Russia to just keep doing what they have been doing), unless they pull a "Russia" and boot all those people out, some of which have lived there for a very long time.

It would be far better to make those areas some sort of de-militarized area (similar to what o2 is saying), but I am not sure that is a deal that could be made.

The only way they will be trouble is if they actually believe the economic situation in russia is better than Ukraine before the war.  

I'll prefer to let Ukraine decide if they are significant or not, not me.  So if they want that back, let them.  If they think it's bad, and want vlad to deal with it- let them.

Unless they hold a russian passport, they are all Ukrainians.

I'm not sure I've agreed with you so hard before.

GIRTHQUAKE
GIRTHQUAKE SuperDork
10/5/22 8:54 a.m.
VolvoHeretic said:

In reply to aircooled :

Are the Russian speaking Ukrainians going to be that pro Russian after they are conscripted and forced to the front?

This is the biggest issue to the whole "How Ukrainian are they?" Question that always boils into thorny at best enthnonationalism- here's a twitter video of an LPR "fighter" who got captured and fed schwarma while the Uke's worked his leg. They're not being paid, and are threatened into service at the risk of 8 years in jail. Other videos have detailed that in the Russian pullout they were ordered NOT to tell the DPR/LDR whatsoever they were falling back; more obvious signs the front has turned into a rout again.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577441687915606017?s=46&t=3goQwJcY4_n1nV3CxYaKYA

CrustyRedXpress
CrustyRedXpress GRM+ Memberand Dork
10/5/22 10:01 a.m.

Another data point regarding how the different regions view themselves. Here is a map of the 1991 independence vote: 

From: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2015/05/21/10-maps-that-explain-ukraines-struggle-for-independence/

06HHR (Forum Supporter)
06HHR (Forum Supporter) Dork
10/5/22 11:04 a.m.

Meanwhile... https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/05/energy/opec-production-cuts/index.html

This will shoot energy prices up and possibly throw Putin a lifeline as what energy he can export is now worth more..  Sounds like a good time to get those North Dakota oil fields back online.

jmabarone
jmabarone Reader
10/5/22 11:08 a.m.
06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

Meanwhile... https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/05/energy/opec-production-cuts/index.html

This will shoot energy prices up and possibly throw Putin a lifeline as what energy he can export is now worth more..  Sounds like a good time to get those North Dakota oil fields back online.

Not gonna happen.  Better to buy what we need from elsewhere than use what we already have here...  

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
10/5/22 11:14 a.m.

I was reading on-line (I will post a link later if I think of it) of Ukrainian recruits training in England with Chinese AKs.

 

jmabarone
jmabarone Reader
10/5/22 11:56 a.m.
Noddaz said:

I was reading on-line (I will post a link later if I think of it) of Ukrainian recruits training in England with Chinese AKs.

 

I recall reading that the US was sending Ukraine that stock of Chinese AKs that were being smuggled into Yemen.  Training site aside, I would assume that is where those AKs came from.  

VolvoHeretic
VolvoHeretic GRM+ Memberand HalfDork
10/5/22 2:23 p.m.
jmabarone said:
06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

Meanwhile... https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/05/energy/opec-production-cuts/index.html

This will shoot energy prices up and possibly throw Putin a lifeline as what energy he can export is now worth more..  Sounds like a good time to get those North Dakota oil fields back online.

Not gonna happen.  Better to buy what we need from elsewhere than use what we already have here...  

ND Monthly Bakken* Oil Production Statistics

Here is a pdf chart of North Dakota's Bakken oil production starting in 1953 with 175 BBLS/day. Things started kicking in after 2006 with 10,572 BBLS/day when HDD (Horizontal Directional Drilling) gets developed. It peaked in 2019 with 1,461,501 BBLS/day and currently as of 07-2022 sits at 1,027,456 BBLS/day. There are something like 400 wells drilled and awaiting fracking to be ready for pumping.

Bakken Oil Field, North Dakota

CrustyRedXpress
CrustyRedXpress GRM+ Memberand Dork
10/5/22 2:27 p.m.

As the resident tree hugging techno hippy I 100% support increasing domestic oil supply if we need to starve the russian war machine until they leave or this is settled. 

Germany needs to get real cool with using nuclear power as well. 

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
10/5/22 3:28 p.m.
CrustyRedXpress said:

As the resident tree hugging techno hippy I 100% support increasing domestic oil supply if we need to starve the russian war machine until they leave or this is settled. 

Germany needs to get real cool with using nuclear power as well. 

That's a perspective I was curious about, and I thank you for saying it. I think we could keep Europe heated throughout the winter that way if we wanted to.

alfadriver
alfadriver GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
10/5/22 3:39 p.m.
tuna55 said:
CrustyRedXpress said:

As the resident tree hugging techno hippy I 100% support increasing domestic oil supply if we need to starve the russian war machine until they leave or this is settled. 

Germany needs to get real cool with using nuclear power as well. 

That's a perspective I was curious about, and I thank you for saying it. I think we could keep Europe heated throughout the winter that way if we wanted to.

I don't think I'm as much as tree hugging hippie, but I also very much support the EU with sending them HC to burn.  As I've posted before, IMHO, this may be bad for CO2 in the short term, but really good in the long term, as the instability of the source of HC will accelerate the EU's switch away from HC heat and power.

VolvoHeretic
VolvoHeretic GRM+ Memberand HalfDork
10/5/22 3:53 p.m.

In reply to alfadriver :

You're not the only save the planet tree hugger around here. I consider myself a pragmatic don't pollute, speak softly but carry a big stick kind of progressive in the likes of Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt, and who believes in an eye for an eye and that sort of stuff. smiley

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
10/5/22 4:06 p.m.

I take all the cats off my cars and let them idle in the driveway all night because I hate the planet and don't want mankind to survive. 

/sarcasm Don't have to be a tree hugger to want to lower pollution etc, but there's only so much we can do when China and India pump out all that crap. If you added all the pollution from #3 to #10 in the worst polluters they still don't match what China alone does on its own. You have to add all 9 of the top 10 to make more.

alfadriver
alfadriver GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
10/5/22 4:30 p.m.

In reply to bobzilla :

And that does not justify doing nothing.  It actually justifies doing something.  Which is the path the EU will certainly take.

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
10/5/22 4:34 p.m.
alfadriver said:

In reply to bobzilla :

And that does not justify doing nothing.  It actually justifies doing something.  Which is the path the EU will certainly take.

I will never understand why people assume that everything is an either/or situation. By saying "there's only so much we can do until we get the big offenders onboard" that now automatically means "do nothing". I don't get it. When did we become so polarized on literally everything? Can a person not want to get the #1 polluter to cut down while working on our own in a sustainable manner? 

alfadriver
alfadriver GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
10/5/22 4:41 p.m.

In reply to bobzilla :

Given the content of this thread, why bring it up?  The off topic nature of the post makes one thing that we should downplay the effects.  At least bringing up russia and it's NG supply risk being a problem and relating that to accelerating getting off of HC is still topical- especially since everyone is worried about the EU and this winter.

And I didn't suggest that you think nothing should be done, I'm calling out you downplaying the effect.  Heck, you could read my post as supportive if your post that something needs to be done given India and China.   But I was calling you out for downplaying the effect- I will admit that, at least.

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
10/5/22 4:49 p.m.

In reply to alfadriver :

Not downplaying anything but you keep doing you. Whats to stop Russia from moving it's NG and oil to china to sell? Sure the pipelines aren't in place yet but there's likely demand that they can fill and they have the resources to build the infrastructure to do it. 

It's a temporary set back for Russia at this point, but for how long? If there's an unregulated market with demand and a willingness to ignore the rest of the world's thoughts of its supplier someone will fill it. Which is why I said until we get China under control there's only so much we can do. I'm sure you'll find something else wrong with this so go ahead.

06HHR (Forum Supporter)
06HHR (Forum Supporter) Dork
10/5/22 4:52 p.m.

And.. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63140098

More sabre-rattling from Putin? (if you replaced his sabre with a binky)

llysgennad
llysgennad HalfDork
10/5/22 5:16 p.m.

It's too bad they are joking. What's good for the goose, and all...

Petition to annex Kaliningrad

stroker
stroker PowerDork
10/5/22 5:39 p.m.

I saw a video on YT about firewood becoming so expensive, Germans are beginning to gather firewood from government-managed/owned forests.  Apparently that is strictly verboten and can land you in jail.  If things end up with the only option to the average German is burning firewood at the risk of being imprisoned, things are not going to go well...  To say nothing of the carbon being generated by burning wood instead of natural gas, etc.  

thatsnowinnebago
thatsnowinnebago GRM+ Memberand UberDork
10/5/22 5:42 p.m.
06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

And.. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63140098

More sabre-rattling from Putin? (if you replaced his sabre with a binky)

Russia can't possibly believe their own statements. Ukriane is kicking ass with just the stuff we don't mind giving away. What does Putin think would happen if the US actually attacked with the stuff too good to share?

stroker
stroker PowerDork
10/5/22 5:43 p.m.
thatsnowinnebago said:
06HHR (Forum Supporter) said:

And.. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63140098

More sabre-rattling from Putin? (if you replaced his sabre with a binky)

Russia can't possibly believe their own statements. Ukriane is kicking ass with just the stuff we don't mind giving away. What does Putin think would happen if the US actually attacked with the stuff too good to share?

Where's Baghdad Bob when you need him...?

GIRTHQUAKE
GIRTHQUAKE SuperDork
10/5/22 5:46 p.m.

Poland fully supports the idea of hosting NATO nukes within it's borders- At this rate, the West will win just by giving Putin a stroke.

https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/10/05/poland-has-discussed-hosting-nuclear-weapons-with-us-says-president/

I'm far more worried about the UK than the EU for this year. The EU wisely laughed at "austerity measures" and still has a full year of CNG/LPG saved while the UK doesn't.

Another Russian video, this one about how a group of the mobilized have basically been abandoned.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577752565839806472

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