History in the Making: Russian Invasion

84FSP said:

Very exciting news to wake up to.  The Ukrainians blew up fuel trucks taking out to Kherson bridge from Russia to Crimea.  Apparently they also took out a major rail line in Donetsk.

The snippet of the burning bridge on twitter posted by Ukraine was fantastic.  Two words "Sick Burn".
 

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-08-22/index.html

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A satellite shot (note the span that has dropped in the left of the shot):

Both bridges now reopened to limited traffic - cars only on the intact road, and short trains on the one operational track.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to alfadriver :

It's scary that you think only Russia is corrupt.  The level of corruption, evil and lies is at an all time high and growing.  My rose colored glasses don't work apparently.  The Ukraine is easily as corrupt as Russia which is a huge part of this problem. 
 

 

You know 100% that I didn't post that- I even said there was corruption in the US and in Ukraine.

But the corruption in Ukraine does not in any measure justify an invasion by a neighbor.  That's what economic sanctions are for.

And it's funny that you think russian corruption isn't that bad- I would wager that most of the reason they could not finish off Ukraine in a month- as everyone in the world expected- is because of corruption taking away arms and ability of the fighting force.  The longer this goes on, the worse it becomes- as new troops can't get uniforms because someone kept the money instead of making the uniforms.  Given that Ukraine's smaller armed force held off until the West could step in is a pretty strong indicator that your assumption that it's more corrupt is not accurate.  It is corrupt, but not on the same level as russia has been for probably 100 years.

(and that also ignores that Ukraine, the state, has made a lot of economic progress with less than russia has for resources- so somehow, it's corruption is actually not making the state as bad as their neighbor- if it's that bad)

...and now they know it can be attacked... perhaps from withing the populace...  and how thin that supply line really is...

I think it says something about humanity that nothing is mentioned of the civilians that lost their lives.

As stated numerous times in this thread, while corruption is clearly everywhere, Russia has raised that to an institutionalized art form!  Ukraine of course inherited that from Russia as part of the USSR, but the recent changes in Ukraine (what is essentially the basis for this conflict) has a lot to do with moving away from that trait.

Not to say Ukraine is free from corruption.  Far from that, I would personally suggest the west be very aware that some components of the corruption still very much exist and keep that in mind when dealing with them, especially when giving them anything of value, especially cash!

In reply to aircooled :

The sad thing is that the corruption in Ukraine will be seen as an opportunity for some.  Like DeBeers and blood diamonds in Africa.

aircooled said:

...and now they know it can be attacked... perhaps from withing the populace...  and how thin that supply line really is...

Do people think that was internal terrorism?  That's a real question, btw.

And I saw one video that apparently all trucks that cross that bridge are inspected, with some kind of internal dectector.  Someone missed a big one, if that was the truck that started it w/o external help.

Stampie said:

I think it says something about humanity that nothing is mentioned of the civilians that lost their lives.

To paraphrase a great killer of massive amounts of people (he is not the originator, but is commonly quoted):

"One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic"

   - Joseph Stalin

I don't find it a great failing of humanity, it's a reasonable defense mechanism.  If most people considered the horrific deaths that happen every day, all over the world, they would drive themselves mad. 

alfadriver said:

aircooled said:

...and now they know it can be attacked... perhaps from withing the populace...  and how thin that supply line really is...

Do people think that was internal terrorism?  That's a real question, btw.

And I saw one video that apparently all trucks that cross that bridge are inspected, with some kind of internal dectector.  Someone missed a big one, if that was the truck that started it w/o external help.

I don't mean to imply it was a (what are mostly Russian) civilian, although there certainly could have been some collusion.  Just that the attack was likely done from within the country (as in, setup the truck, drive the truck etc) rather then a missile, or even a commando raid, so there is likely a heightened level of paranoia.

Stampie said:

I think it says something about humanity that nothing is mentioned of the civilians that lost their lives.

We should. The latest numbers I could find: 6,119 Ukrainian civilian deaths, including 390 children, have been verified by the UN. That's an average of nearly 30 every day since the invasion started.

aircooled said:

Stampie said:

I think it says something about humanity that nothing is mentioned of the civilians that lost their lives.

To paraphrase a great killer of massive amounts of people (he is not the originator, but is commonly quoted):

"One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic"

   - Joseph Stalin

I don't find it a great failing of humanity, it's a reasonable defense mechanism.  If most people considered the horrific deaths that happen every day, all over the world, they would drive themselves mad. 

"And when you kill a man, you're a murderer
Kill many, and you're a conqueror
Kill them all... Ooh-oh you're a god!"

The Stalin quote reminded me of those lyrics from a Megadeth song. 

Kerch bridge is the only route for supplies into Crimea, and the most recent news from it is that only cars are now allowed through, implying that Russia is scared of the bridge's physical state. Worse however, is that it shows Ukraine can strike it with decent success, and even if the rail line is cleared and ready any supply sent or train will become a target since they'll all block the line and have to be cleared. Ukraine might genuinely have Crimea back by Christmas at this rate.

More reports say that Wagner group is now openly feuding with Shiogu (spelling?) and Kadryov's Chechnyan paramilitaries about the losses.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to alfadriver :

It's scary that you think only Russia is corrupt.  The level of corruption, evil and lies is at an all time high and growing.  My rose colored glasses don't work apparently.  The Ukraine is easily as corrupt as Russia which is a huge part of this problem. 

Did Fox entertainment write this post? Russian corruption sees their tanks running out of diesel because their soldiers have been stealing it, and having no night optics because they've been selling them all off on eBay for decades. To prepare to enter the EU alone Ukraine has to pass and take on anti-corruption measures (which were stalling under Zelensky until the invasion) and they're full of other nation's intelligence services, NGOs and other groups to help with the war effort. Eyes are EVERYWHERE now, and they've seen from the Russian side that stealing from the nation can easily kill someone.

"Their corruptions the same guise!!!!" Then what the hell was the Orange Revolution for.

Also its interesting how """"people"""" have gone from "Putin is too strong and has already won the war, so we should just negotiate for a peace now" to "Putin is too weak and has already lost the war, so we should just negotiate for a peace now".

It really makes me think oh wait no it doesn't lmao

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

Right. Let's just keep them at it, pounding each other, blowing E36 M3 up and killing people. That's the humanitarian and sane thing to do.  

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

The same mode of attack on the Kerch Bridge won't be tried again - too much risk. FSB has now been put in charge of security there, and I'm sure the naval presence will have increased. Not to say it won't be attacked again, but it will probably have to be done from a distance. Also, it is not the only route for supplies into Crimea; it is the easiest, most efficient route. There is a rail line from Donetsk, but it is vulnerable due to proximity to the front. The rail bridge currently has one of two tracks open to limited traffic, which will be some help to the Russians, and most importantly, the spans over the shipping channel were not damaged, meaning maritime traffic can still move freely.

The motives for negotiation in the West have always been about mitigating risk, and in some cases limiting casualties and other losses; the question of Putin's position is only relevant in assessing Russia's willingness to consider a negotiated end to the conflict under terms acceptable to the West.

In terms of how this war ends, I think one thing that is coming out of this is Putin's willingness to continue to wage war, even when unable to effectively do so.  I would think that would motivate European countries (especially those formerly behind the Iron Curtain) to support pushing Russia all the way out of Ukraine, or at least supplying Ukraine enough so the war stays confined within their borders.  While I doubt he'd open up another front, especially due to NATO, one never knows anymore.

As for my comment before about moving forward, yes, I understand things don't always go linearly, and many times fall back into dark ages, and nations and leaders act in what they believe are their interests, I still hold out hope for human culture to evolve beyond a lot of our darker tendencies.  If we are to both solve a lot of problems here on Earth, and possibly strike out to the stars, we need a lot more cooperation than we have right now. 

02Pilot said:

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

The motives for negotiation in the West have always been about mitigating risk, and in some cases limiting casualties and other losses; the question of Putin's position is only relevant in assessing Russia's willingness to consider a negotiated end to the conflict under terms acceptable to the West.

And acceptable to Ukraine; Russia has committed multiple atrocities and is obviously attempting to erase Ukrainian cultural identity. We are to the extent of asking "Is this a warcrime, or is it a symptom of Genocide?" at this point, to which I agree with Ukrainians- the only answer and way out, is for Russia to leave the entire sovereign nation, return all the civilians it has forcibly stolen away and moved into Russia proper, and answer for it's warcrimes and genocidal language. Anything less is frankly, going to send the message that a nation CAN get away with ethnic cleansing, at a time when other nations we also have problems with have done similar.

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

Even if we gave Russia what they wanted, why would they stop? They already invaded twice before. Details of their attempts to destroy Ukrainian culture are all over this thread; men forcibly drafted at the threat of jail or killing, demands by armed forces to join Russia at gunpoint, children taken from homes and citizens sent into Russia to disappear. Damned if you do, but refusing means also sending a message that you refute their attempts at genocide on a world scale.

Bullies only listen to one thing.

volvoclearinghouse said:

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

Right. Let's just keep them at it, pounding each other, blowing E36 M3 up and killing people. That's the humanitarian and sane thing to do.  

If the Ukrainian people want to keep fighting to get their country back, why tell them to stop?   If they want to stop- well, people will just have to accept that.

If the russians want to stop, then they can get out.

Right now, the ball is in the russians court to end the deaths- they can just leave their conquested lands and all of this can end.

You have to wonder what this bridge attack will do to the Russian supply situation.  Ukraine has been pounding Russian logistics for a while now so that certainly has had an effect.  The damaged bridge will certainly make that worse.  It looks like it is partially functional but will certainly reduce the traffic and likely the weight of the traffic.  Although there are the ferries, I highly suspect transporting heavy equipment or fuel rail cars is not really possible.  I also suspect transporting anything explosive on the bridge or the ferries will be greatly slowed down by caution.

This is almost certainly going to have an effect on the fighting effectiveness of the Russians in the west, which is already rather bad.  It probably won't have a huge effect on their artillery though, and that is pretty much 80% of there effectiveness now, assuming they have enough ammo... and ammo dumps is certainly one of the things that has been blowing up a lot.

There clearly is an over all tactic to Ukrainian actions and it's similar the US's in Europe in WWII. Handicap their ability to bring fighting material to the fight.  Industries in WWII (strategic bombing), supply in Ukraine.  These thing have a creeping effect, and can eventually lead to very noticeable effects.

In reply to aircooled :

The point of the attack was also to hit that train- ignite the fuel to heat the steel past it's tensile point, to either have it fail or be in prime position to be hit again to snap it. Russia may know this and may now be gunshy to run fuel across it for fears of getting missiled again. I also thought after the fact, that they pulled the Black Sea fleet back to Sevastopol after the Moskva was sunk and could possibly be scared by shore-launched Neptunes, but that's just conjecture- reports out of Russia show the Moskva was in truth, nearly inoperable (as Lazerpig showed in his YT Video) and with their pride flagship in that state, god knows what the rest is like.

In reply to alfadriver :

It seems like there's a definite parallel between not adding Ukraine to NATO, because it would make Russia mad, and not getting too involved in this war...because it would make Russia mad.  The current efforts to aid Ukraine are walking the line between helping a country that's been invaded against it's will, and not getting too involved because we don't want to start WW3 or risk a nuclear strike.  I guess if the Ukrainians want to keep dying and our defense contractors are ok with supplying them tools to help them fight, on the US taxpayer/ government's dime, then that's the line we've chosen. 

I'm not a military strategist, and obviously Russia (Putin) started this thing and until they stop it, the only thing it seems we can affect is how much pain they feel.  And it's very disingenuous to attack anyone who's against endlessly supplying Ukraine with armaments as some sort of a Fox News Russia shill. It's possible to be both against the Russian invasion and against sending Billions to Ukraine. But that's a level of finesse that's impossible to achieve in an online discussion, particularly one populated largely with bots (and bot "likes")

I was discussing the threat of nukes with Mrs. VCH last night. I think it's almost non existent. First, if Putin does believe Ukraine is part of Russia, why would he nuke his own land?  Second, crazy as he may be, Putin knows the ramifications of a nuclear first strike on Russia. He may be nuts, but he isn't "run the entire world through the shredder" nuts.  Third, even if Putin did call for a nuke strike, what are the odds of it getting carried out, versus perhaps someone in his inner circle putting a bullet in his head to prevent nuclear haulocaust and the death of his grandchildren. Sure, he'd likely be killed too, but he would be the man who saved the world. I think that's a pretty honorable hill to die on.