From an editorial by Max Boot in the Washington Post today,
"Both Russia and Ukraine have been expending munitions at a furious rate. “At the height of the fighting in Donbas, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire British military has in stock,” notes the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank."
Looks like the Ukrainians may have re-purposed some old Soviet reconnaissance drones (retired in 89) for it's strike on the airbases. Loading them up with some explosive and maybe a new guidance system. The guess is that they knocked out (from the recent attack at least) 4 bombers. The sound of a jet engine flying over from video from one of attacks was clearly evident.
Not really a drone at that point of course, more of a cruise missile. Ukraine had been using them (for reconnaissance I assume) previously so it may not be as unprecedented as assumed. There is evidence they had previously used them (March) with explosives when one was found in Croatia, with explosives on board, after clearly going off course. They do have a range of over 600 miles, which puts Moscow in range, so the Russians are likely a bit nervous (as noted previously Moscow has a lot of air defense).
Only 142 where ever made, so the supply of them is likely very low. They don't appear to be terribly stealthy, but being low flying will help that. One aspect that this might effect is Russian planes and helicopters flying back from the front, the Russian SAMs might be a bit more eager to shoot most anything down now (?)
The recent Russian missile strike seems to have had only small effect (apparently 60 of 70 shot down), as Ukrainian air defense increases and Russian missile supply decreases. There was even a shot of one of the German Gephard tanks shooting a cruise missile down.
This article offers a useful discussion of the dynamics of peace talks and the sort of process we might expect between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in coming months.
Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:From an editorial by Max Boot in the Washington Post today,
"Both Russia and Ukraine have been expending munitions at a furious rate. “At the height of the fighting in Donbas, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire British military has in stock,” notes the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank."
sounds like the brits need more ammo on hand.
bobzilla said:Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:From an editorial by Max Boot in the Washington Post today,
"Both Russia and Ukraine have been expending munitions at a furious rate. “At the height of the fighting in Donbas, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire British military has in stock,” notes the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank."
sounds like the brits need more ammo on hand.
the politicians never learn, do they...?
stroker said:bobzilla said:Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:From an editorial by Max Boot in the Washington Post today,
"Both Russia and Ukraine have been expending munitions at a furious rate. “At the height of the fighting in Donbas, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire British military has in stock,” notes the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank."
sounds like the brits need more ammo on hand.
the politicians never learn, do they...?
I think most major powers assumed that there would be no way a near-peer conflict could last this long without it going nuclear.
stroker said:bobzilla said:Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:From an editorial by Max Boot in the Washington Post today,
"Both Russia and Ukraine have been expending munitions at a furious rate. “At the height of the fighting in Donbas, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire British military has in stock,” notes the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank."
sounds like the brits need more ammo on hand.
the politicians never learn, do they...?
Why would they spend their own money to stock-pile when they can just request it from NATO if needed?
Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:From an editorial by Max Boot in the Washington Post today,
"Both Russia and Ukraine have been expending munitions at a furious rate. “At the height of the fighting in Donbas, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire British military has in stock,” notes the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank."
Canada would run out on day one before lunch.
I have heard that the US is noticeably depleting some of its stockpiles also
Of note in the news today is the prisoner swap of Brittney Griner for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. I think it is unlikely Bout is a real threat any more, but he was convicted of some rather serious offenses, that most would consider FAR worse than having pot oil in you baggage. Of course Paul Whelan (accused of spying... maybe) was not part of the deal. I suspect the delay in this deal was the refusal of Russia to make Whelan part of the deal, and would seem to be a FAR fairer swap.
This of course may indicate and be timed to show that Russia has some willingness to negotiate about things (you know, a cease fire, so we can re-arm and attack at full strength next year...). It also clearly shows who has the upper hand in such negotiations. The US is clearly willing to sacrifice a lot (a MAJOR arms dealer) to get back a basketball player (with a drug possession charge), which may not play well for future negotiations.
As I have noted previously, I do not feel bad at all that she was imprisoned for what was almost certainly a stupid act. She was clearly playing with fire by even traveling to Russia at that time.... just stupid in my opinion.
02Pilot said:This article offers a useful discussion of the dynamics of peace talks and the sort of process we might expect between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in coming months.
Very good, very concise, very pragmatic.
I especially liked "Reality is the ultimate gut check."
Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:stroker said:bobzilla said:Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) said:From an editorial by Max Boot in the Washington Post today,
"Both Russia and Ukraine have been expending munitions at a furious rate. “At the height of the fighting in Donbas, Russia was using more ammunition in two days than the entire British military has in stock,” notes the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank."
sounds like the brits need more ammo on hand.
the politicians never learn, do they...?
Why would they spend their own money to stock-pile when they can just request it from NATO if needed?
I've got a feeling that these days that might not work as well as it has in the past...
In reply to GameboyRMH :
Yea, given the Soviet's ability to build weapons and carry out a war, a WNBA player is way more valuable than a Russian arms dealer.
Tsar Putin the Great?:
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Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights (HRC), Putin remarked that the “special operation” in Ukraine can be a “lengthy process” and that the acquisition of new territory is a significant result of this process for Russia.[1] Putin compared himself favorably with Russian Tsar Peter the Great by noting that Russia now controls the Sea of Azov, which Peter the Great also fought for.[2] This invocation of Russian imperial history explicitly frames Putin’s current goals in Ukraine as overtly imperialistic and still maximalist. Putin is conditioning Russian domestic audiences to expect a protracted, grinding war in Ukraine that continues to seek the conquest of additional Ukrainian territory.
The Russian information space responded positively to Putin’s assertions and set further conditions for the protraction of the war, with one milblogger comparing Ukraine to Syria and noting that Russian forces did not start meaningfully experiencing victories on the battlefield until years into the operation.[3] ISW has previously observed that the Kremlin has been setting information conditions for the protraction of the war in Ukraine since the summer following Russian forces’ dismal failures to secure and retain their primary objectives.[4] This informational conditioning is fundamentally incompatible with any discussions regarding a ceasefire or negotiations. Putin seems unwilling to risk losing domestic momentum by halting his offensive operations even briefly, let alone to pursue an off-ramp short of his full objectives, which, as he is making increasingly clear, appear to include the reconstitution of the Russian Empire in some form.
It would appear that he's all in. Hell or high-water. The fundamental implication is that he thinks, with some reason, that a totalitarian state will prevail against a democratic alliance where the citizenry of individual states can align to remove themselves from the conflict.
Worldwide recession anyone?
Sounds like a good time to be a defense contractor..
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:It would appear that he's all in. Hell or high-water....
Or at least, that is what he wants to be his position if there are any negotiations. I honestly don't think he would take any other stance, no mater the reality of the situation. [insert image of Hitler moving around imaginary armies in his bunker in 1945]
"I can do this forever" is a far better bargaining position then "We want this over"
In reply to aircooled :
Ok, great. With what weapons? With what personnel?
I know! Steiner's assault will push them back.
Putin is all-in until he isn't. There's no point in equivocating while you're in the middle of an active conflict, the outcome of which remains uncertain. Russia has vast resources on which to draw in the long run, something Ukraine lacks. If the war drags on without a definitive result and Western support wavers - a very real possibility - Russia could easily end up with territorial gains over and above those it made in 2014.
The article I linked earlier today presents a pretty good outline of the dynamic.
Russia leveled Syria over years. However russian body-bags were in the hundreds, not the tens of thousands that they are filling now.
How much russian hardware was lost over the years as the russians leveled Syria? 100 armored vehicles maybe?
Russia is banking on NATO running out of weapons. The thing is, I have a feeling that what NATO is going to run out of, is the old-school stuff that has been stored and maintained since WW2. Putin should pray that NATO does not run out of this old stuff because there is a good chance the new stuff is going to be much more effective.
Russia on the other hand, is going to be running out and, due to sanctions and lack of skilled techs, not have the technology to make even the old-school stuff. At what point do the russians start to take consumer electronics from the population so that they harvest chips to make a missile?
aircooled said:Tsar Putin the Great?:
-------
Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights (HRC), Putin remarked that the “special operation” in Ukraine can be a “lengthy process” and that the acquisition of new territory is a significant result of this process for Russia.[1] Putin compared himself favorably with Russian Tsar Peter the Great by noting that Russia now controls the Sea of Azov, which Peter the Great also fought for.[2] This invocation of Russian imperial history explicitly frames Putin’s current goals in Ukraine as overtly imperialistic and still maximalist. Putin is conditioning Russian domestic audiences to expect a protracted, grinding war in Ukraine that continues to seek the conquest of additional Ukrainian territory.
The Russian information space responded positively to Putin’s assertions and set further conditions for the protraction of the war, with one milblogger comparing Ukraine to Syria and noting that Russian forces did not start meaningfully experiencing victories on the battlefield until years into the operation.[3] ISW has previously observed that the Kremlin has been setting information conditions for the protraction of the war in Ukraine since the summer following Russian forces’ dismal failures to secure and retain their primary objectives.[4] This informational conditioning is fundamentally incompatible with any discussions regarding a ceasefire or negotiations. Putin seems unwilling to risk losing domestic momentum by halting his offensive operations even briefly, let alone to pursue an off-ramp short of his full objectives, which, as he is making increasingly clear, appear to include the reconstitution of the Russian Empire in some form.
Well said Air cooled.
The flaw in Tsar Putin's thinking is he is treating every problem like a nail because he only has a Hammer.
In todays world everything is either for sale or rent. Rent access through the Ukraine by building them a modern port or some such thing. It's how China is doing it.
NOHOME said:Russia on the other hand, is going to be running out and, due to sanctions and lack of skilled techs, not have the technology to make even the old-school stuff. At what point do the russians start to take consumer electronics from the population so that they harvest chips to make a missile?
I was thinking about this. The longer the war lasts, the better the Russians will get at evading sanctions. I suspect China will happily surreptitiously supply components as long as they have some plausible deniability. Or sell them to third parties who will get them to North Korea or Iran, who can build and ship weapons to Russia. It is unlikely anyone will attempt to destroy factories deep in Russia for fear of provoking a nuclear response. If this sad assessment is correct, the war can last as long as Putin (or those who have the same beliefs) can hold onto power, because no one outside the country can stop them from lobbing missiles. They may not be able to hold onto ground in Ukraine, but they can make it effectively uninhabitable.
In reply to NOHOME :
I've read comments Russia is already scavenging consumer electronics for chips to make their arms work.
Peter Z commented Russia has never won a war without pouring men into the conflict, usually with around a half-million casualties. They appear to around 10% or so towards that number. Granted, the population of Russia today is somewhat different than generations past and be less willing to tolerate sending their sons to slaughter.
Soviet Russia lost the Cold War partly because the West could flat out-spend them. That dynamic has not changed.
NOHOME said:Russia leveled Syria over years. However russian body-bags were in the hundreds, not the tens of thousands that they are filling now.
How much russian hardware was lost over the years as the russians leveled Syria? 100 armored vehicles maybe?
Russia is banking on NATO running out of weapons. The thing is, I have a feeling that what NATO is going to run out of, is the old-school stuff that has been stored and maintained since WW2. Putin should pray that NATO does not run out of this old stuff because there is a good chance the new stuff is going to be much more effective.
Russia on the other hand, is going to be running out and, due to sanctions and lack of skilled techs, not have the technology to make even the old-school stuff. At what point do the russians start to take consumer electronics from the population so that they harvest chips to make a missile?
Very well put
02Pilot said:Putin is all-in until he isn't. There's no point in equivocating while you're in the middle of an active conflict, the outcome of which remains uncertain. Russia has vast resources on which to draw in the long run, something Ukraine lacks. If the war drags on without a definitive result and Western support wavers - a very real possibility - Russia could easily end up with territorial gains over and above those it made in 2014.
The article I linked earlier today presents a pretty good outline of the dynamic.
We've been talking about the west lacking the will to support Ukraine since late February. Honestly this has brought the west together more than anything else could have, and it doesn't look noticeably weaker than it did in February either.
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