Opti said:02Pilot said:VolvoHeretic said:How much does world peace cost?
Everybody wants peace. They just can't agree on the parameters.
Very few of the people in power want peace, War is lucrative
So is peace, if it's set up right. Not for everyone, obviously, but for the people doing the setting up, sure.
Opti said:02Pilot said:VolvoHeretic said:How much does world peace cost?
Everybody wants peace. They just can't agree on the parameters.
Very few of the people in power want peace, War is lucrative
Look at History. Large scale 'Peace' is achieved after a powerful ruler conquers or kills everyone in the region of conquest who is deemed as troublesome. Even then it doesn't last long. World peace is a neat concept, but when the details are defined it's probably pretty oppressive.
Can we get back to the War discussion?
Opti said:02Pilot said:VolvoHeretic said:How much does world peace cost?
Everybody wants peace. They just can't agree on the parameters.
Very few of the people in power want peace, War is lucrative
i would suggest that people in power want power.
quoted instead of replying because Megadeth
VolvoHeretic said:The US has given a lot more than we have got in the last 100 years. How much does world peace cost? We have picked winners and losers, but at least we are trying. In the end our true real goal has been world peace, can't we all just get along? god-allah-hari vishnu. And I am speaking as a fellow atheist!
We spent the first 100 years including a civil war figuring out that We the People meant everyone; children, women, men, blacks, natives, Chinese, Irish... We are still working on it.
What I am worried about is just how crazy is Putin. Crazy enough to start a nuclear war he can't win?
Putting myself in his shoes for a minute I look around the world and see the shortcomings of communism.
China got rich following the principles of capitalism. But being a dictator hasn't got the CCP to America's success level. I wonder if China just trusted their people enough to give them freedom if they could capitalize on that freedom the way America has? Same with North Korea.
Actually all of them are surrounded by successful countries. Take Russia and instead of losing people it would be gaining them with the natural resources, and potential wealth. Russia could really achieve something.
But it would have to trust it's own citizens enough to let them select the government.
Since WW2 Russia hasn't really grown population wise East Germany would have all left if the Berlin Wall hadn't been erected. Same with other former Soviet Union countries.
Then recently they lost their much of the well educated citizens dodging the draft along with nearly a million people who no longer wanted to remain in their homeland.
Of course, if somebody gave Putin the 9mm solution, they'd blame the Ukrainians regardless of who did it...
frenchyd said:What I am worried about is just how crazy is Putin. Crazy enough to start a nuclear war he can't win?
I think we can be fairly assured that Putin himself does not have that power. He can order it, but multiple people still have to follow through, who are well aware of the consequences of such things.
The only real concern as I see it, is if Russia gets itself in such a desperate situation that some sort of next step weapon (tactical nukes) are the only way to prevent some huge calamity for the Russians. The Ukrainians surrounding a bunch of Russians is very unlikely that, but Ukraine charging headlong into Russia very much could be. But that is essentially inconceivable, if for no other reason, the West would be entirely against it.
The capture of the annexed areas (the old ones, not the new ones) also seems pretty iffy for a nuke response (and kind of silly when you consider they would be nuking their own land, by their statements). It generally seems pretty unlikely the Ukrainians will be able to re-capture (or at least any significant part of) those areas anyway.
Even the use of tactical nukes by the Russians (not nearly as destructive as you may think) would be unlikely to spark a full on nuclear war and would more likely result in a huge PR problem for Russia.
Some reports that the Russian offensive has begun? Not super impressive at this point if this is it. Basically just more of what we have seen in the last few months. We will know more in the next few days no doubt:
Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. The pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk Oblast has increased markedly over the past week, and Russian sources are widely reporting that conventional Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, particularly northwest of Svatove near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna.[1] Geolocated combat footage has confirmed Russian gains in the Dvorichne area northwest of Svatove.[2] Russian military command additionally appears to have fully committed elements of several conventional divisions to decisive offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, as ISW previously reported.[3] Elements of several regiments of the 144th and 3rd Motor Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) and a regiment of the 90th Tank Division (Central Military District), supported by elements of the 76th Airborne Division and unspecified Southern Military District elements, are conducting offensive operations along the entire Svatove-Kreminna line and are reportedly advancing against Ukrainian defenses.[4]
The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains. The Russian offensive likely has not yet reached its full tempo; Russian command has not yet committed elements of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District), which deployed to Luhansk Oblast in January after deploying to Belarus.[5] Russian forces are gradually beginning an offensive, but its success is not inherent or predetermined. While Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast now have the initiative (in that Russian forces are setting the terms of battle, ending the period of Ukrainian initiative from August 2022), the full commitment of these forces could lead to their eventual culmination along the Svatove-Kreminna line without achieving their objectives of capturing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. That culmination would likely provide a window of opportunity for Ukrainian forces to exploit with their own counteroffensive.[6]
I expect that putin will keep at this for as long as he can find warm bodies to send to the front; willing or otherwise. If you are comfortable murdering 200,000 of your citizens in your quest for glory, what is a few hundred thousand or even a million more? Not like it affects his day.
The question then becomes if even a million poorly trained and equipped russian soldiers are enough to accomplish putin's goals. I doubt russia could take and hold the entire country, and they would look stupid if they ended up with the 2014 border they already had before they slaughtered their male population and turned the planet against them.
If when this is all said and done, russia does settle for the 2014 borders, the rest of the world knows with certainty that it would only be for as long as it took to breed a few kids, rebuild the military and then return with lessons learned.
In reply to aircooled :
Hopefully Ukraine has been provided with enough intel to have prepared for this offensive. If they aren't ready to hold a line, a tactical retreat could eat up a lot of Russian soldiers and tanks.
NOHOME said:I expect that putin will keep at this for as long as he can find warm bodies to send to the front; willing or otherwise. If you are comfortable murdering 200,000 of your citizens in your quest for glory, what is a few hundred thousand or even a million more? Not like it affects his day.
The question then becomes if even a million poorly trained and equipped russian soldiers are enough to accomplish putin's goals. I doubt russia could take and hold the entire country, and they would look stupid if they ended up with the 2014 border they already had before they slaughtered their male population and turned the planet against them.
If when this is all said and done, russia does settle for the 2014 borders, the rest of the world knows with certainty that it would only be for as long as it took to breed a few kids, rebuild the military and then return with lessons learned.
A few years of inconclusive meat-grinder warfare can result in a durable settlement, provided reasonable consistency on all sides. Just look at the Korean War - three years, roughly three million dead, and an armistice line almost exactly where the pre-war border sat. It's not been an uneventful peace, to be sure, but the fighting ended 70 years ago. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility to see Ukraine undergo a post-war redevelopment along the lines of South Korea, provided either Western-oriented neutralization or a serious defense commitment from the West (the former is far cheaper and easier, but initially at least the Ukrainians will strongly prefer the latter).
From 7 hours ago (this is in the southern area, north of Mariupol):
At least 31 vehicles lost - the aftermath of the Russian attack on Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast. 13 Russian tanks (mostly T-72B3), 12 BMP-1/BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 MT-LB, an IMR combat engineering vehicle and others were destroyed or damaged and abandoned
The condition of the ground is fairly apparent here. It's not solid, but does not appear to be muddy. Again, this is in the southern area, so a bit warmer. The temps in the area seem to be a bit above freezing during the day, and below freezing at night.
aircooled said:From 7 hours ago (this is in the southern area, north of Mariupol):
At least 31 vehicles lost - the aftermath of the Russian attack on Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast. 13 Russian tanks (mostly T-72B3), 12 BMP-1/BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 MT-LB, an IMR combat engineering vehicle and others were destroyed or damaged and abandoned
The condition of the ground is fairly apparent here. It's not solid, but does not appear to be muddy. Again, this is in the southern area, so a bit warmer. The temps in the area seem to be a bit above freezing during the day, and below freezing at night.
I'm not a military strategist, and I didn't stay in a Holiday Inn last night, but this has got to be the dumbest offensive i've ever heard of. They had to go now before the spring thaw, and the Ukranians know where and pretty much when they are going to attack so no element of surprise. It's like WWI all over again. The only advantage the Russians have is numbers, and that's neutralized because the lines of attack are so well defined. Why didn't Putin just wait it out until the summer? Oh, wait, the Ukranians will be too well equipped by then and his armor will get mauled by Western tanks instead of Western artillery... Unless there is a total breakdown of the Ukranian forces, or they just run out of ammo this seems to be doomed to failure. Not cheering for the Russians by any means, but this just seems like a foolish waste of men and materials for little to no gain.
In reply to 06HHR (Forum Supporter) :
I have a feeling that some of this is due to the pressure put on putin's officers to "Do Something". We have all had that boss that demanded "action" to solve a problem, when in reality what was needed would have been time to understand the nature of the problem and make some kind of fundamental change.
As you noted, it's likely only to get more difficult on the Russians as time goes on. This is likely the best time to attempt this. The only thing that might improve for Russia in the near future is the number of men (saying nothing for quality of course)
How this affects potential negotiations?
I am sure (well, I would hope) the US (and maybe the West) has some general plan for negotiations, and it's entirely reasonable they would not share exactly what that is. My suspicion is, whatever plan it is, will start after a Ukrainian offensive, when it is going well, giving Russia motivation to stop the bleeding (in men and territory).
If the Ukrainians can take back the southern, recently captured areas, that would be a huge critical gain (lot's of agriculture there) and I am sure a big trigger for negotiations. That of course would essentially represent the lines at the start if this whole thing. Maybe this is the US / West's plan.
In reply to aircooled :
If I had to guess, I'd think the US will be pushing the Ukrainians toward an offensive concept that at its end seeks to render the remaining Russian-controlled territory unsustainable in the long term (at least without significant effort). That means splitting it somewhere; the most likely would be to try to take either Mariupol, Berdyansk, or Melitopol. Another possibility would be to cross the Dnipr upstream of Kherson and cut Crimea at the neck near Armiansk (this would also allow cutting the water supply), but I suspect the Ukrainians may not have the means to conduct a large-scale opposed river crossing, and failure would be devastating. This would put the situation in a good place to motivate the Russians to start talking. My concern is that the US and the West are considerably more interested in getting talks started than are the Ukrainians, and that the latter may prefer to try to reclaim larger swathes of territory, rather than taking areas that inhibit Russian long-term occupation and exploitation of what remains.
Yeah, a strike south from near Zaporisha seems like the most likely line of advance for Ukraine (along the north / south rail line shown in the map below). I really don't see them able to get enough logistics across the Dnieper near Kherson sustain any sort of offensive there. Where the Russians are attacking, in the West, is very likely far less useful to the Ukrainians.
It does seem like the Russians are well aware of this though, with a large amount of defensive structures being built in the area, and the re-deployment of some of the Wagner group.
It is interesting to wonder what offensive by either side looks like. The Russians clearly do not have the tanks to do a rapid advance (and the large amount of Ukrainian anti-tank missiles will make this troublesome). There airforce is kind of crap. They do still have the artillery, but they seem to be running a bit short on both ammo and likely barrels (old equipment).
The Ukrainians are also essentially without an airforce and are very short on tanks (for now). Which essentially leaves us with WWI level of combat maneuvering. Which is likely why the Ukrainians will wait for the tanks. Estimate are, with the commitments they have now, they should have enough (so summer?).
Taking the major cities could get messy, and would likely best involve encirclement to avoid a meat grinder. Taking Mariupol (a rather critical city) could be especially hard considering how close it is to Russia proper.
Of note is that Zelenskyy is currently (I believe) on a tour of western countries stirring up more supplies.
Below is a purported map of Russian units, as well as rail lines and bases for perspective:
In reply to aircooled :
Speaking of the russian airforce? Is it just me not paying attention, or are they kinda missing in action?
I keep thinking what a handfull of warthogs could do for this chess-game.
NOHOME said:In reply to aircooled :
Speaking of the russian airforce? Is it just me not paying attention, or are they kinda missing in action?
I keep thinking what a handfull of warthogs could do for this chess-game.
I think Su-25s and helicopters are showing up occasionally, but mostly, the rest of the more expensive planes are lobbing missiles and rockets from inside Russian or Belarusian airspace. Although I think I saw something about an Su-35 being downed recently.
This is getting weird. In a country where people die at like 60 years.
NOHOME said:This is getting weird. In a country where people die at like 60 years.
Absolutely they go straight to dead and avoid the incredible heaviness of being.
NOHOME said:In reply to aircooled :
Speaking of the russian airforce? Is it just me not paying attention, or are they kinda missing in action?
I keep thinking what a handfull of warthogs could do for this chess-game.
I think the Russian airforce took the biggest hit from the corruption. It's one thing to have a tank with some sub-par or missing parts, a plane is an entirely different thing. There was also a known lack of training time for the pilots and an apparent tendency to "give" the piloting role to those related to the elites. None of this make for an effective or long lasting air force.
Early on, there was evidence of Russian pilots using civilian GPS receivers for navigation and pilots that wore glasses (not ideal in a high G environment).
In reply to aircooled :
That and the Russian doctrine doesn't really integrate air and ground forces the way the west does it.
aircooled said:There was also a known lack of training time for the pilots and an apparent tendency to "give" the piloting role to those related to the elites.
I guess it was fun to play top gun when you either didn't have to fight or your adversary didn't have an effective air defense. Not so fun anymore, I am guessing.
Y'know, it would be fun (if you could get reliable data) to compare the reserve Air Forces of the larger nations and compare them both quantitatively and qualitatively...
In reply to Rons :
If they truly believe this, should not the entire nation just kill itself and get it over with?
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