History in the Making: Russian Invasion

ralleah said:

Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

ralleah said:

aircooled said:

But hey, I am sure he is enjoying being free.... and we... get to watch a more skilled  WNBA.... yeah...  (sorry for the tangent, but I really hope they briefed her as to exactly who the person they traded her for is)

So that's a E36 M3ty thing to say, regardless of how you feel about if the US should have traded for her. Why would you ASSUME she's not aware of the person they traded for her being a pile of E36 M3? Your perspective on it reads as if you blame her for much of the E36 M3 that went down around their detainment and release.

Don't share it here, but you (and anyone else who's feeling spicy at my response) should spend a few minutes considering of you'd feel and say the same things if it hadn't been a black queer woman who got popped on BS charges and was made into essentially a hostage.

Yeah, Aircooled showed an uncharacteristically poor choice of words on that one. But nobody made an issue of her gender, race or sexuality until you did. So perhaps you're the one due for some mirror time.

I meant what I said, and stand by it. Same thing for you pointing it back at me. He didn't have to mention those things specifically, that's the point.

Here's a novel idea.  Don't break the law in a foreign country so you don't have to take the punishment.  When I was in the Navy we were specifically told no one would help us if we did it.  Having all those social check boxes ticked doesn't absolve anyone of personal responsibility.  Everyone is responsible for their own actions.  

How about we back up and return to the war. Time to quickly move on.

In reply to ralleah :

Or, we could do this: You can not assume I say what I say is because of her lifestyle, because, you know, you know nothing about me. 

And I won't assume you said what you said because of her lifestyle, because, you know, I know nothing about you. 

E.g. You should spend a few minutes considering if you'd feel and say the same things (about my comments) if it hadn't been a black queer woman who got popped on BS charges and was made into essentially a hostage.

(I also should note I clearly did not "assume" anything, that was pretty clear in what I said, "I really hope" does not imply "not".)

Looks like the Russians are putting their new supply of drones to use.  Bombers are reported in the air, so I suspect we can expect some more cruise missiles targeted somewhere (I can't imagine that have much of a supply anymore, probably all newly built).

Russian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 59 Shahed-131/136 drones, of which Ukrainian forces shot down 58.[1] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat characterized this strike as the largest drone strike since the start of the war and stated that Russian forces chiefly targeted Kyiv.[2] Zhytomyr Oblast Head Vitaliy Bunechko reported that Russian drones struck an unspecified infrastructure facility in the oblast.[3] The Russian allocation of aerial munitions to targeting Kyiv rather than prioritizing infrastructure or military facilities continues to constrain this limited Russian air campaign’s ability to meaningfully degrade Ukrainian offensive capabilities for the upcoming counteroffensive, as ISW has previously assessed.[4]

In Kyiv, a 41-year-old man was killed by shrapnel, two more people were injured. Shrapnel damaged several houses, cars, shops, commercial premises and other objects.

I thought some would find this interesting.  Shows the (assumed) deployment of Ukrainians and Russian units.  I say assumed because this VERY much should not be considered accurate.  Obviously the Ukrainians would not release such information.  The Russians BTW are likely mostly aware of the actual distribution (they do have, at least, a lot of satellites).  Like noted in the IP, such things are generally not a surprise.

What does this mean for the near future?  Hard to say.  The groupings of units behind the lines are not necessary waiting for the offensive.  The could simply be reserve units (waiting to move if / where they are needed) or even units training / regrouping.

The one interesting thing that I see is the seeming curiously large amount of Russian units opposite of Kherson (lower left), in an area that would be rather difficult for the Ukrainians to attack.  I suspect this has more to do with the importance of holding that canal supply water to Crimea and the difficulty in moving units there, than an expected large attack.

Like I noted, not likely entirely accurate.  Don't go emailing your Russian buddy.... you know... Opti...    (I am kidding.... really!)  (hey, you guys have no idea I am not a Russian loyalist just spreading bad info)

If you zoom in close some of the symbology used is interesting.  Where did this map originate?  

The Russians have recently declared that the Russian media is not allowed to mention the Wagner group anymore.  This clearly seems to be a way to avoid the reality that the Wagner units are the only ones that have had any sort of success for quite a while (the recent "win" of course was very dubious).

It will be interesting to see what happens with Prigozhin.  He is apparently considered a close confidant of Putin, which I suspect is the primary reason he is alive now.

I am thinking his creation of The Wagner Group was a sort of way to streamline the corruption in the Russian army (with the support of Putin of course).  I mean, why would a world power need a mercenary army?  It of course allowed him to make money outside of Russia without creating international incidents.  Someone postulated that the Wagner Group is analogous to the German SS armies.  The SS armies where more the armies of the Nazi party, than of Germans, and as such where highly loyal to Hitler and the Nazis (and of course incredibly ruthless).

Is the Wagner Group, sort of, Putin's private army? Maybe that was the original intent, but it's sort of looking like he may have lost control of them, or at least, their leader:

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have again indirectly undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority and regime. Prigozhin responded to a journalist’s question about Russian state media banning any discussions about Wagner forces, stating that unnamed Russian bureaucrats will only benefit from such censorship in the near term of one to three months before the Russian people will push back and start hating the bureaucrats.[19] Prigozhin stated that Russian officials would have been able to enjoy their historic ability to censor Russian society if Russia had not started the war in Ukraine. Prigozhin then gave advice to an unnamed official: “If you are starting a war, please have character, will, and steel balls - and only then you will be able to achieve something.” Prigozhin implied that accomplishing real achievements would let the official avoid lying about the construction of new buildings, metro stations, and bridges in an effort to look good. Prigozhin notably shifted the discussion from talking about unnamed Russian officials to directly addressing a single man. Prigozhin’s comments are likely targeted at Putin whom the Russian state media has routinely portrayed as a leader minutely involved with small infrastructure projects and the lives of ordinary Russian people. Putin used to host annual hours-long “Direct Line” press conferences with constituents in which he often responded to inquiries that are best suited for local governments, for example.[20]

Here is the link to the map.   Some of the unit symbols are a bit interesting (the little, um, phalic looking ones are air defense BTW).  A unit symbol index is the button in the upper right.

https://militaryland.net/maps/deployment-map/

Clicking on each unit will give you info.   If you are a fan of heraldry like I am, you will find some of the unit patches interesting.

As hinted by the Russian aviation airborne noted previously, there was a large cruise missile and drone attack last night.  Largest for quite a while.  Most of course were shot down, but some did get through (hard to say what with accuracy concerns, but it seems like 80-90% get shot down?).  No indication of any notable hits in Dnipro thought I suspect another sleepless night for Vikki.  Some indication of an airbase being hit and maybe Kyiv.  What percentage is this of their total supply?  Why the big push?

Lots of things blowing up behind the lines in Russian territory.  Are they ramping up?

aircooled said:

As hinted by the Russian aviation airborne noted previously, there was a large cruise missile and drone attack last night.  Largest for quite a while.  Most of course were shot down, but some did get through (hard to say what with accuracy concerns, but it seems like 80-90% get shot down?).  No indication of any notable hits in Dnipro thought I suspect another sleepless night for Vikki.  Some indication of an airbase being hit and maybe Kyiv.  What percentage is this of their total supply?  Why the big push?

Lots of things blowing up behind the lines in Russian territory.  Are they ramping up?

If the reports of 80 to 90 per cent of missiles being shot down are reasonably accurate, how much does a successfull hit cost Russia each time? (firing ten to hit two is multiplying the cos per strike by five.)

Leaving aside the often militarily usless nature of the targets.

Well, that is an interesting point and discussion.  With the heavy use of western weapons (which can be quite pricey) it's hard to say, but Ukraine is not really paying for most of those.  I think much of Russia issues are more with being able to make the weapons (having the components) than the straight cost.

It's not unreasonable though to say that many wars are wars of economy.  WWII is a good example of this.  While there are certainty decisions made that had large effects, but the economy and specifically the manufacturing capability of the US had a HUGE effect.  Being effectively isolated (and rich with most of the needed natural resources) was wildly useful.  Russian manufacturing also had a big effect.  Of course, they had a lot of help from the US in that aspect (not that they will ever admit that).

You could theoretically (simplistically obviously) breakdown wars to what it costs each side, and the first one to run out of money looses.  One aspect of this is of course making tradeoffs (e.g. weapon vs weapon) that are in your favor as noted.  The US of course, is historically very bad at this.  Vietnam is big example of this.  The US spend huge amounts of money and used very advanced technology, to try and kill soldiers in the jungle.  The US of course generally has lots of money to do that, but in the case of Vietnam, the credit card got refused eventually (as I said, highly simplistically since the "cost" of human losses was certainly more of a factor than simple money).

In this case you have Russia, with the economy (GDP) of around Florida.  Against Ukraine, which is around Colorado's.  This of course would be an obvious outcome, but you need to throw in whatever the west is providing (which is mostly in the form up weapons, not money), for as long as they will provide it, so the math not so easy here.

 Here is a basic analysis of Ukraine and Russia.  The breakdown is EXPORTS only, so it doesn't completely represent the economies, but it does give a good idea where a lot of it is.  Ukraine will of course taken a large hit with Russia occupying a fair amount of it's southern farmlands.  Russia of course is taking a hit not being able to sell petroleum products quite as easily and general economic issues.

Ukraine: 561.2 Billion GDP (Similar to Colorado)

Russia:  4,494.2 Billion GDP (about 9 times larger) A little better than Florida.

What does this all mean for this war?  Well, as noted many times, it's a bit of a race to get to a good conclusion before the economic offset the west is providing dissipates.  Until then, the tradeoff are still a relevant calculation.  Probably really, more for Russian trying to make it as expensive on Ukraine as possible (putting more economic pressure on the west) then the reverse but that will still have an effect of course.

We have approved the dates for the start of the movement of our troops, the decisions have been made , — Zelenskyi

In reply to aircooled :

WWII was won and lost in large part, IIRC, thanks to Germany deciding to stop bombing English infrastructure, Germany unable to bomb Russian infrastructure after they moved it beyond the reach of their relatively short-duration aircraft, and the Allies' persistent precision attacks on German  railways and critical manufacturing sites.  

Could the war have been won if Hitler had not ordered a focus on "breaking their will" with non-military targets?  Possibly, maybe probably, but it would have taken a lot longer without the critical manufacturing and bases in the UK.

American pilots who transferred from the PTO to the ETO were kind of amazed that they didn't have to worry about their airfields getting bombed while they tried to sleep.

I look at the current situation in Ukraine through this lens.  So much energy wasted on non military targets.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to aircooled :

I look at the current situation in Ukraine through this lens.  So much energy wasted on non military targets.

With the exception of entry points for foreign equipment, some recently set up fuel and supply depots, and probably a few manufacturing/repair locations in Lviv, Ukraine has dispersed their military assets enough that Russia probably doesn't have the ability to locate a target, decide on a striking it, and attack before it can be moved.  I think I have read of some of the more concentrated forward depots getting hit recently, but not too many of them.

It's really hard to say what Russia has actually hit (besides all the apartments and such).  It's not like the Ukrainians are going to admit to anything that isn't obvious, but I do suspect they are keeping things well spread out.  Much like the US bombing campaign in Europe in WWII, the ability for the Germans to distribute and quickly repair damage was greatly underestimated. The amount of explosive dropped in WWII of course way outpaced what the Russians have done, of course the Russians methods are (supposed to be) more accurate.

Regarding the lack of strategic German bombing: That was essentially determined in the Battle of Britain.  The German bomber force, and air force was primarily designed to support the army and as such where generally rather short ranged (much like the Russians).  Although the Germans could reach many of the British airfields from France (the British fighters where also rather short ranged) they  could barely get much past London if they wanted fighter Ford Ford Econobox and certainly not the industrial west of England.  The Me110 (twin-engined fighter) could reach farther, but it was found to be pretty much a target vs the Spitfires and Hurricanes.

The Germans of course, could have developed longer range bombers and fighters, but as you noted, that was not their priority and certainly would have taken time.

Here is a kind of low quality pic of the range issue:

Here is the Me-110 for reference (later to be rather useful as a night fighter and a bomber destroyer).  Twin engined fighters where disigned by a number of countries, but the P-38 was really the only one successful as a fighter.

Some more analysis of the recent Russian attacks. Looks like there were some Iskanders in there, all shot down! (probably Patriots).  The Iskander vs a Patriot is likely one of those situations where the economics work against Ukraine (west).

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29 and during the day on May 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles and 38 Shahed-131/136 drones on the night of May 28 to 29 and 11 Iskander-M/K missiles during the day on May 29.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed in all 36 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, 30 Shahed drones, and all 11 Iskander missiles.[2] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces intercepted all 11 Iskander missiles, and 40 cruise missiles and Shahed drones that targeted Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast.[3] Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces also intercepted missiles and drones near the cities of Lviv, Mykolaiv, and Odesa and that Russian forces struck port infrastructure in Odesa City and a military infrastructure facility in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.[4] Russian forces launched a relatively higher number of missiles than in recent series of strikes following the largest Russian series of Shahed strikes since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on May 28.[5] ISW previously assessed that Russian forces began a new limited air campaign in recent months to degrade Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities, but that the Russian prioritization of targeting Kyiv is likely further limiting the campaign’s ability to meaningfully constrain potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.[6]

Radar was what won the battle of Britain. The Germans were very slow in figuring out how it worked, and it gave Britain the ability to harass fighters that were at the end of their fuel range to the point that they could not effectively protect their bombers. British fighters were always in the sky when th Germans got there after burning most of their fuel. Germany kept thinking they could overwhelm the fighter defense but by the end of the blitz they had more fighters than when they started and Germany eventually gave up. 

 As I understand it, Nazi Germany was also really dumping everything into the ground army before their air power and finally the Kriegsmarine.  It should also be mentioned, that a major tipping point was the removal of the Nazi's from Croatian oil fields; once that was cut in 1942 they really had no stock or source of petroleum and had to turn to coal gassification, if memory serves.

aircooled said:

Some more analysis of the recent Russian attacks. Looks like there were some Iskanders in there, all shot down! (probably Patriots).  The Iskander vs a Patriot is likely one of those situations where the economics work against Ukraine (west).

I've read it was the opposite- that an Iksander was $6-7 million apice and has to be fired from a jet, while a Patriot missile is ~$4 million; and that the Iksander also doesn't cout what it costs to put the SU in the air to fire it with. Or are they firing tons of Patriots at once? It's worth it to mention what portion of the bill are we footing, since as you mentioned that it's not simply Ukraine's economy versus Russia's. 

I think you are thinking of the Kinzhal, which is the hypersonic one.  In which case I would think that is accurate.  The iskander is the medium range tactical missile.  They have been using them a lot.  

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) said:

Radar was what won the battle of Britain....

I won't disagree with you. Radar certainly made it possible to defeat the Germans in what they where able to do.

Analysis of the over all battle though shows that the purpose of The Battle of Britain, which was to destroy the British air force in order allow the invasion of England could have never happened (radar of course being part of that).  Some of the main points where:  The Germans could not effectively attack the radar stations.  They had ineffective reconnaissance, so they really did not know which airfields to attack, and importantly, they could not attack aircraft production, so what they destroyed, would eventually be re-built.

This of course is semi-relivant to the current situation, in that, if you cannot affect the enemies means of production, especially, if you are at a production / manufacturing disadvantage, you are in a bad spot.

Quick news update:

  Multiple drones made it through to Moscow, some hitting residential building.  The Russians are shocked and amazed that someone would do such a horrific thing that affects civilians!!!!!  How absurd!!!!  WHYYYYYYY?!?!  (OK, the last part is me...)

  I of course have mixed feelings on this.  I REALLY like to see some payback, but escalation of civilian attacks is never a good thing.

  Of note, as absurd as it is, the Russian reaction is entirely understandable considering there total control of the media, and there constant messaging that the Ukrainians are of course the bad guys and a bunch of terrorist thugs.  Attacks like this of course play into that, and could be said to be counter-productive.

Also of note:  The area at least some of the drone hit, is the area where the Russian elite live.  Which is nice really.  Pic below makes that seem likely.

Drones hit Moscow buildings in rare attack on Russian capital as Kyiv faces another night of bombardment

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/30/europe/moscow-drone-attack-intl/index.html

(edited to show actual pic):

In reply to aircooled :

Ah! You're right, I mixed up my missiles. I'll have to poke around about their cost.

Always tentative about drone attacks on Moscow now; it wouldn't be the first time Putin has done a false-flag, but Russia now has it's own extreme nationalist separatist elements if Belogorod is the potential iceberg tip.

EDIT: Russians are claiming that the civilian hits are due to electronic interference means on the drones causing them to fall out of flight and strike civilian buildings, per their Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Link.

I also wanted to throw it (sorry for the barrage of posts):

The current situation is VERY similar to the Battle of Britain in a way.   The German eventually became frustrated that they could not make any progress in achieving their goal in suppressing the British Air Force.  An accidental bombing of London (normally not a target, because, why bomb civilians, they have nothing to do with defeating the Air Force), eventually led to a full out campaign, the London Blitz, to destroy London and break the British will to fight.

The London Blitz of course had the opposite of the intended affect.  It did not break the will of the British, it solidified it in anger and motivation to fight back!!

Hi everyone!!! 

Have you already heard? about the drones attack on Moscow this morning - they(russians) called it terrorism and attacks on Ukrainian cities is liberation - ha - hmmm... it's strange. right?

Ukraine denies its involvement. And Russian news channels call for the destruction of major cities in Ukraine.

at the same time Legion "freedom of Russia" announces recruitment for drone pilot training.

Interesting...