History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Opti said:

alfadriver said:

Opti said:

alfadriver said:

Btw, anthony, if your interpretation is the correct one, why hasn't it stood up in court for Facebook or google or whoever?  Seems as if you were so obviously right, it would not be a debate here. 

You talk like the law is settled and it isnt. We have two conflicting federal rulings on the matter (Texas and Floridas laws) and the Supreme Court has just agreed to hear the case.

Im not saying Anthony is correct, legally (although morally I tend to lean that way), but neither are you. Like pretty much all laws, it is settled until it isnt and all you have is the current understanding, and right now we have seemingly conflicting federal rulings.

I could be fired for saying the wrong thing at work. So I'm not sure where private owned companies have to be forced to allow all speech. 
 

Let alone, we are all guests here. I am allowed to throw someone out of my home for what they say. Just like here. 

Now your moving the goal posts, you can be fired for what you say at work, but that has nothing to do with your first question. "Btw, anthony, if your interpretation is the correct one, why hasn't it stood up in court for Facebook or google or whoever" You only mentioned large tech companies, which is specifically what the two cases I mentioned are about.

My only point was the law isnt settled and if you are actually interested in this you should do some reading its not as clear cut as you think it is, which is what I was getting at. Plenty of private companies have been forced to allow speech. Even the legal definition of "speech" is being argued now.

Your analogy about your home being related in some way shows your how little you know about the subject. Your home isnt a public accomodation, but most courts have held websites are. 

 

Just for a bit of context about the cases.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/09/scotus-to-review-florida-and-texas-social-media-laws-in-big-tech-vs-gop-battle/

In reply to Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) :

Anthony says we all love war 

Why can't we be friends?

5, 4, 3, 2, 1....

The Ukrainians continue slow progress at the edges of Verbove and Novoprokepivka (south or Robotyne) and seem to be getting into the towns a bit.  This slow progress, as noted, seems to be the best way to proceed at this point for the Ukrainians.  A chart from earlier in the offensive showed the Ukrainians taking heavy equipment loses from what was likely a more vehicle heavy assault.  Currently, the Russians are being shown as loosing almost 3 times the amount of equipment.  This is rather unusual for an offensive, and can likely be explained by what appears to be a notable technological advantage by the Ukrainians, specifically in drones and counter battery fire.

The two side continue to trade drones and missiles.  Moscow is still a popular target.  Things seem to have slowed a bit in general.  

The Russians have taken to painting fake bombers on their bases.  For some reason, they are not painting on fake tires. This of course speaks to a clear lack of confidence in their ability to defend these bases (which are far from the front).

Also of note of course is that currently, US funding for Ukraine is at a halt.  There is of course a good amount of funding in the pipeline, so this will not have an immediate effect.  Will Europe step up more?

The Pentagon has $5.2 billion left for Ukraine, which will last for another six months – WSJ

If this does indicate a halting of US aid (which seems a bit unlikely, but who knows), it is not likely to motivate any sort of treaty.  At some point, maybe for the Ukrainians (as they get desperate), but at the same time, the Russians will have less and less reason to come to any agreement.  Why agree to something less, when you can take it all?  The Russian have repeatedly stated their goals remain the same, which is more than they have now.  Obviously, no real reason to trust much of anything the Russian state, but it would certainly be consistent if they kept pushing for more.

aircooled said:

 Will Europe step up more?

No. They've got domestic political problems, too, and smaller budgets.

The Pentagon has $5.2 billion left for Ukraine, which will last for another six months – WSJ

If this does indicate a halting of US aid (which seems a bit unlikely, but who knows), it is not likely to motivate any sort of treaty.  At some point, maybe for the Ukrainians (as they get desperate), but at the same time, the Russians will have less and less reason to come to any agreement.  Why agree to something less, when you can take it all?  The Russian have repeatedly stated their goals remain the same, which is more than they have now.  Obviously, no real reason to trust much of anything the Russian state, but it would certainly be consistent if they kept pushing for more.

Public statements of objectives are not always a reliable indicator of what is politically acceptable. As I've noted before, Putin is facing his most severe domestic political challenge from allies on the right, not the opposition left (the left having been fairly well disrupted as an organized movement), and any walking back of victory conditions prior to a deal being signed would be problematic. If Putin has a completed deal in hand, he can stave off the short-term backlash with force if necessary, but he can't risk it while things are still in the air.

The problem with doubling down if Western funding dries up is that Russia isn't in great shape either, and while the West may stop or slow down supply to Ukraine, it can still ramp up sanctions and make Russia keep hurting indefinitely. And if Putin throws everything in and fails to achieve a quick favorable result, he would be in far more danger of a coup from the right than he is now; squashing Wagner may have bought him some time, but Russian revolutions tend to be something that take a while to fully form, but when they do, watch out.

Not sure if this was posted yet:

Grenade launching kayaks. 

Combat kayak with grenade launcher.  That can launch a grenade over a mile.  

With ideas like this, the Russians should just go home.

An interesting piece from Politico this morning on how Ukraine is preparing to build a local defense industry with Western business support, in anticipation of direct assistance drying up. This is the only practical approach for Ukraine to take, becoming what one participant described as "an Israel in Europe — self-sufficient but with help from other countries." If they are able to do this, they will be capable of effective self-defense regardless of US and European government positions. There is, of course, a period of danger between now and when those industries come online, but it's a good sign that Ukraine's government is grounding policy in practical reality, not hopeful fantasy.

Obviously they need all they can produce currently, but after this is all over, they could start selling cheap, steel case ammo in place of the Russian stuff that you can't get anymore.   

In reply to 02Pilot :

I saw that too; there's also very practical- and spooky- reasons with things like ready access to a cold/hot zone for conflict to readily test new systems, and also that Ukraine still has the old infrastructure and (possibly) even brainpower from when they were constructing swathes of the USSRs military equipment. Helps that they also can hitch their proverbial boat to nationalism.

This is also attached to Rheinmettal transferring more Leopard tanks there as a company but under the requirement that they be there "For plant safety and security". My bet is they're secretly holding the Leopards to swap with damaged ones from the front but pawning it off as "what? We gave that one to em, you didn't see nothing."

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

It's paid off for Israel, which sells its combat-proven systems all over the world, and there are signs it's already producing dividends for Ukraine: I've seen reports that indicate sales have already been made to Egypt (Vilkha MLRS) and Indonesia (Neptune ASM), though I'm sure these are contracts for future production, contingent on local needs in the war zone.

In reply to 02Pilot :

Yeah, I saw they were going in on some deals to build drones within Ukraine.  As noted the ability to defend those factories is a concern.  They of course could go all WWII Germany with their production, who, later in the war where using highly dispersed production and even used caves and mines as factories.

Ukraine, as noted previously, already had a pretty significant arms industry before the invasion, so it would not be that big of a shift.

The Russian hypersonic missiles would be a concern.  Although apparently not terribly accurate, if it's a big building, it might not matter.

On a related note, the Ukrainians apparently managed a drone strike on the factory that makes the hypersonic missiles.

Some other things:

One aspect of the current fighting is that the Ukrainians seems to be concentrating on night attacks.  They should have a significant advantage in night vision equipment, especially in vehicles.  This is where the Western tanks (and APCs) could be very useful and have a huge advantage over most of the Russian vehicles.

Use of tanks generally brings out the drones, but I am pretty sure the primary Russian drone, the Lancet, does not have night capabilities.

A note on the A1's that the Ukrainians will be receiving.  One aspect of these tanks is that they are very fast (which will be less useful in Ukraine).  The primary reason for this is that they have turbine engines in them (most all other tanks are diesel).  Turbine can, generally, run almost any type of fuel, but normally use Kerosene... but they use a LOT of it.  This might be a serious logistics issue for the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainians did another special forces style raid into Crimea:

“There was a battle with the Russian invaders, there are many dead and wounded from the invaders’ personnel. Unfortunately, there are losses among the Ukrainian defenders, which are still not comparable to the Russian ones. The special operation aimed at the de-occupation of Crimea continues. We appeal to all residents of the peninsula with an appeal to wait and assist the Defense Forces in every possible way in the return of Ukrainian territories,”

May have taken out yet another S-400 SAM system (Russian air defense seems to be on a consistent downgrade):

This night the SBU destroyed the S-400 Triumph air defense system in the Belgorod region

The price of such a complex is 1.2 billion dollars. USA In the videos posted by the Russians, about 20 explosions can be heard at the location of the Triumph and its radar. The light disappeared in neighboring settlements.

Waiting for the confirmation from the satellite images

In regards to drones.  Information available (which of course will lean Ukrainian) seems to show a very large amount of Ukrainians drones being used, and significantly fewer Russian ones. E.g. the Russians do not seem to use FPV drones (First Person View, basically flying the drone by a camera on the drone, looking through a monitor or headset), which seem to be VERY popular with the Ukrainians.   Some info came out confirming this. 

It should be noted that the Russians are very much trying to ramp up their drone production, but they will still have to deal with their supply issues.

And this:

The United States will transfer to Ukraine thousands of Iranian weapons and ammunition intercepted on the way to Yemen, - CNN

In regards to the Germans attempt to hide production from Allied (mostly US) bomber raids.  One of the most interesting one was the REIMAHG Me 262 production site.  This was effectively a Me262 (jet) production facility built into a hill, with an elevator that transports the finished 262's up to the top of the hill where they take off from a runway built on the top of the hill.  Quite creative really. It only produced a small number of planes and did use slave labor.

A drawing of the site where you can see the runway on the top of the hill:

A photo of the site where you can actually see a 262 near the top of the elevator.

More pics (of the site as it is now) and info:

http://thirdreichruins.com/thuringen.htm

Another piece from George Beebe at Responsible Statecraft that points out the potential pitfalls in both the "end support now" and "give all the support" positions as the war grinds on. He is one of few commentators I've read that properly acknowledge the dynamic nature of politics during any ongoing conflict.

Putler might want to finish what's on his plate before he starts asking for more:

At "Valdai" forum Putin claims that war against Ukraine is not a conquest war for territories. "We still have to explore and develop Siberia, Eastern Siberia, the Far East - Putin"

New Western satellite images from October 1, confirming the departure of the main part of the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol.

Thus, three submarines, two missile frigates and one patrol ship were redeployed to Novorossiysk. A large landing ship and a number of small missile ships, as well as new minesweepers, went to Feodosia.

Today Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on this information.

The Russian military recently transferred several Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels from the port in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea to the port in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, likely in an effort to protect them from continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets in occupied Crimea. Satellite imagery published on October 1 and 3 shows that Russian forces transferred at least 10 vessels from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.[1] The satellite imagery reportedly shows that Russian forces recently moved the Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen frigates, three diesel submarines, five landing ships, and several small missile ships.[2] Satellite imagery taken on October 2 shows four Russian landing ships and one Kilo-class submarine remaining in Sevastopol.[3] Satellite imagery from October 2 shows a Project 22160 patrol ship reportedly for the first time in the port of Feodosia in eastern Crimea, suggesting that Russian forces may be moving BSF elements away from Sevastopol to bases further in the Russian rear.[4] A Russian think tank, the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, claimed on October 3 that the BSF vessels’ movements from occupied Sevastopol to Novorossiysk were routine, however.[5] Russian forces may be temporarily moving some vessels to Novorossiysk following multiple strikes on BSF assets in and near Sevastopol but will likely continue to use Sevastopol’s port, which remains the BSF’s base. Former Norwegian Navy officer and independent OSINT analyst Thord Are Iversen observed on October 4 that Russian vessel deployments have usually intensified following Ukrainian strikes but ultimately returned to normal patterns.[6] ISW will explore the implications of Ukrainian strikes on the BSF in a forthcoming special edition.

There is also an entertaining video out of a Ukrainian tank commander (obviously with a very good Russian accent) calling a Russian tank factory and complaining about the crap quality of the T-72 he has (something about the starting system) and the idiots building them.  The person he talks to generally agrees and says he will talk to the engineers about the issues.

Where can I order one of these new Ukrainian 'rain coats'?

https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainians-create-invisibility-cloak-protection-092205207.html

Where's Waldo?

aircooled said:

There is also an entertaining video out of a Ukrainian tank commander (obviously with a very good Russian accent) calling a Russian tank factory and complaining about the crap quality of the T-72 he has (something about the starting system) and the idiots building them.  The person he talks to generally agrees and says he will talk to the engineers about the issues.

I thought that I read the Ukrainians were calling Russian tank tech support because they were having trouble starting a captured Russian tank.

In reply to 02Pilot :

Very concise and pragmatic. 

Brett_Murphy (Agent of Chaos) said:

Not sure if this was posted yet:

Grenade launching kayaks. 

Wonder where they got that idea?