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02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
4/13/24 8:27 a.m.

In reply to Noddaz :

Given the recent destruction of a major power plant, I hope the Brits are sending over some big generators to power that thing - I'm sure it wants a lot of juice.

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/16/24 11:01 a.m.
aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/16/24 12:45 p.m.

In reply to 02Pilot :

The Dragon Fire appears to have a rather large generator attached to it.  The bigger issue is it is likely rather short ranged (compared to other air defense) and likely will mostly useful for point defense of large installations etc (e.g. power plants), until a large number can be made / delivered.

-----

The Ukrainians have reportedly taken out a rather expensive ($100 million) Nebo-U radar system in the Bryansk region (north east, on the way to Moscow) with a drone swarm attack.  Probably not good news for people in Moscow who like sleep.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukraine-claims-knocked-out-russias-32597516

The Hanger Tank is back.  Looks like the Russians like this idea and are expanding it's use.  Note the large number of drone jammers on the roof.  I would imagine this has a somewhat negative effect on visibility for the tank!

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/16/24 1:06 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

Ukraine did have to kill the other over-armored tank in it's shelter.  As long as the invaders continue to waste resources.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
4/18/24 4:02 p.m.

Bad news, looks like Ukraine's war machine has taken the first long-feared gulps of air from the fuel tank (due to a shortage of artillery shells):

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/

FJ40Jim
FJ40Jim Reader
4/18/24 7:06 p.m.

In reply to GameboyRMH :

That's saddening to read. I'll stop typing because it's tempting to go off on some politicians who think it's OK for Russia to be emboldened by their Pyrrhic victory.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/19/24 1:23 a.m.
FJ40Jim said:

In reply to GameboyRMH :

That's saddening to read. I'll stop typing because it's tempting to go off on some politicians who think it's OK for Russia to be emboldened by their Pyrrhic victory.

Please go off on said politicians.  Link for advise and correct outlet:  https://www.aclu.org/writing-your-elected-representatives

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/19/24 1:24 a.m.
aircooled said:

The Hanger Tank is back.  Looks like the Russians like this idea and are expanding it's use.  Note the large number of drone jammers on the roof.  I would imagine this has a somewhat negative effect on visibility for the tank!

"Blyat-mobile" laugh

DarkMonohue
DarkMonohue GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
4/19/24 3:36 p.m.

Overnight airstrikes in and near Dnipro last night. Vikki is in Dnipro.

 

Hopefully Vikki will check in when she gets a chance and let us know that she is okay.

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/19/24 3:54 p.m.

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

I wonder how effective drone jamming is and will be? It would appear that they are becoming a huge factor in warfare, and potentially a way for a small country to punch over its weight limit.   

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/19/24 4:50 p.m.

Drone and GPS jamming seem to be pretty effective.  The counter to it, starts to get a bit scary:  one solution is to give the drone anonymous control (likely AI based) once it gets in the target area with all the jamming. Obviously there will be intended targets loaded, and it will search on it's own looking for the target and try to determine if it is correct (since picture / description may be from a different angles etc).... 

But, very much yes.  Drones punch WAY above their weight / cost at this point.  You have $5000 drones killing million dollar tanks!  There have already been drones attacking drones.

The little sport plane the Ukrainians used as a drone (with likely hundreds of pounds of explosives), apparently costs less than a Saheed drone (not sure what currency is shown below).

The Ukrainians may have done another Patriot ambush.  A Tu-22  was spotted spinning in, in Russian territory.  Based on a video of it, it very much looks like a SAM strike.  Tail missing and on fire.

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
4/19/24 5:27 p.m.

Ships are another area in which it will be real interesting to see how dronetech develops. WWII marked the end of the battleship age. At what point will aircraft carriers become functionally questionable because of their huge target mass?

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/19/24 7:06 p.m.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:

...At what point will aircraft carriers become functionally questionable because of their huge target mass?

What do you mean, when?  cheeky

Carriers have been pretty questionable for a while because they are such a huge, hard to defend target, for a long time.  Especially from subs.  The only think really saving them from subs at this point, is other subs, and even that is questionable (the Germans, see below, with a super quiet diesel sub, managed to plop a sub in the path of an American carrier and a take a shot of it through the periscope during a war game a while back).

They are of course super useful (mobile air bases) for projecting power, but in an all out war with a similarly sophisticated enemy, maybe not as useful as many may want to think.

r/submarines - a ship in the water

This of course is wildly closer than it needs to be for a basically guaranteed kill.

 

stroker
stroker PowerDork
4/21/24 1:16 p.m.

I've seen some short clips of this woman on FB and she seems to know what she's talking about.  Posting it just as a FYI.

 

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
4/21/24 1:40 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

"If they start shooting, it will get very lonely, and then very exciting."

 - a fictitious carrier commander

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/21/24 2:57 p.m.

Russia better hurry up and finish that train line that bypasses the Kerch bridge!

Long-range ATACMS missiles could be sent to Ukraine by the end of next week

Chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee Mark Warner hinted at this in an interview with CBS:

“I hope that once the document reaches the President by Tuesday or Wednesday, those deliveries will begin with long-range ATACMS missiles,” Warner said when talking about the Ukraine aid package.

VikkiDp
VikkiDp Reader
4/21/24 3:17 p.m.

In reply to DarkMonohue :

Hopefully Vikki will check in when she gets a chance and let us know that she is okay.

Aaron, i appreciate your concern heart

Honestly, physically - i'm fine,  morally and psychologically - i'm shocked and exhausted.

And it's not just about my condition, it's about the condition of the people around me. I can't even imagine how the people who got hurt feel. It's impossible to get used to what's going on, every time it knocked me out.

It really hurts to see how people are suffering, it really hurts to see how someone is destroying your home, destroyed cities, towns and villages... too hurt to see. Scorched earth, ruined nature, killed and injured animals... it's too heartbreaking...

Any war is awful!!! Any war is evil!!! I'm not just talking about the war in Ukraine, i'm equally hurt in either case. 

But when it's where you live, when every day you see the effects of war all around you or interact with people who have suffered... it just hurts even more. When the best of us(young and talented) die... it hurts even more.

People should live peacefully, create something good, beautiful and useful, do their hobbies and raise their kids heart

Peace and good wishes to you all!!! Have a good week!!!

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/21/24 7:18 p.m.

In reply to VikkiDp :

Good to hear you are still doing what you do.

As I have noted before, I think US defense money spent in Ukraine is likely some of the most effective defense spending ever.

It sounds like you (well, your country) will be getting a well needed boost.  Unfortunately it would have certainly been far more useful 6 months ago, but I am sure will be critical for this summer:

Details of the US aid package to Ukraine:

▪️49.9 billion - defense spending;
▪️7.8 billion - potential budget support;
▪️1.57 billion - economic assistance;
▪️400 million - funds for border protection and humanitarian demining.

A bill was also passed on the use of frozen assets of the Russian Federation (~$5 billion) for Ukraine

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/23/24 12:11 p.m.

So, likely in relation to the above, the Russians are pushing a bit.  Also, remember how I mentioned the Russian tactic of flattening cities before invading to create a refugee crisis?  Well, they appear to be trying to do that to Kharkiv currently.  It's looking like the aid package (as well as Europe stepping up in various ways) and the Czech artillery shells may be a bit of "Juuuusssst in time" kind of thing.   

-------------

The Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and information operation to destroy Kharkiv City, convince Ukrainians to flee, and internally displace millions of Ukrainians ahead of a possible future Russian offensive operation against the city or elsewhere in Ukraine.

Kremlin mouthpieces are seizing on concerns about a future Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv City to conduct a likely coordinated information operation in an effort to create outsized panic among Ukrainians. ISW assesses that the likelihood of a successful Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv is very low if Ukraine receives renewed US military aid rapidly.

Russian forces appear to be aiming to make a wide penetration of Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, but their ability to do so will likely be blunted by the arrival of US and other Western aid to the frontline.

 

(Beginning of the month and current)

Unfortunately this is an example of the lack of aid currently.  Normally a salient like this would be wildly vulnerable to counter attack.  Ukraine is basically unable to do that currently.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/23/24 12:46 p.m.

Also, a bit of interesting thing I ran across, that might ring a bit of a bell with those who have been reading this thread for a while.   I was watching a Youtube video on the planning for the invasion of Iraq.  The basic story was that is was a bit troublesome, primarily because the Secretary of Defense at the time was very interesting in micro managing the situation and was really pushing to do it with a little commitment (in terms of troops and equipment) as possible (never a great way to create a successful military operation) which of course ends up being a major factor of what an S-show it ended up being.

Anyway.... when trying to come up with a plan, the Secretary of Defense picked someone to come up with a plan (sort of a doctor shopping, keep asking different people until you get the answer you want kind of thing) and present it.  The plan presented was essentially an armored charge into Bagdad to take it.  Now, how they would hold it, and how they would be supported logistically (logistics where a big issue in the actual invasion) were huge issues.  It was a pretty ridiculous plan.  The man who presented that plan....

....Colonel Douglas Macgregor.          Yes, "Colonel of truth" as I like to call him.  So, he's been a bit of lune for a long time.  To be fair, Patton was a bit of lune also (also a tank guy of course), and that can be useful/effective, but at some point (even with Patton), it became a bit much.

VikkiDp
VikkiDp Reader
4/24/24 8:55 a.m.

In reply to VikkiDp :

it really hurts to see how someone is destroying your home, destroyed cities, towns and villages... too hurt to see. Scorched earth, ruined nature, killed and injured animals... it's too heartbreaking...

it's what i was talking about.... too hurt to see...

it was a village in the south of Ukraine

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/24/24 5:09 p.m.

The support bill has been signed.  It includes:

  • RIM-7 and AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
  • Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
  • Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition, including .50 caliber rounds to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
  • Additional ammunition for HIMARSes;
  • 155mm artillery rounds, including High Explosive and Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions rounds;
  • 105mm artillery rounds;  
  • 60mm mortar rounds;
  • Bradley IFVs;
  • Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
  • High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
  • Logistics support vehicles;
  • Tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
  • Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
  • Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
  • Precision aerial munitions; 
  • Airfield support equipment;
  • Anti-armor mines;
  • Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
  • Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
  • Night vision devices;
  • Spare parts, field equipment, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment

-----

This is an interesting statement from Peskov.  What do you mean "buffer zone"?  I thought you were going to de-nazify Ukraine?  How will you do that if you don't control all of it?!?  I mean, the amount of bluff and bluster that comes out of these people, I cannot imagine anyone would take anything they say seriously!  Also obviously kind of implies they have no hope or anticipation of controlling all of Ukraine at this point (I suspect east of the Dnieper would be a likely goal).

Peskov threatens to expand the "buffer zone" in Ukraine if Kyiv receives longer-range missiles, — Reuters

Oops!  Obviously, the restriction to attacking within Russian is certainly still there, but they have the drones, with are likely more effective at this point.

The US quietly shipped long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine

The United States in recent weeks secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine for use in its battle to fight off Russian invaders, and Ukraine has now used them twice, a U.S. official said on Wednesday.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/27/24 9:57 p.m.

Some interesting stuff from the every changing measure / counter measure department:

The Russian have an idea as to how to protect their oil refineries...  they are going to need a LOT of scaffolding!

They also apparently shot down one of these (Orian-10 reconnaissance drone):

Russian Drone "Strike Groups" Jammed And Bombed Air Defenses During Huge Exercise

With one of these (Yak 52).  Seems to involve someone the back seat with some sort of weapon (likely a light machine gun).   Very retro, as far back as WWI.  The Yak is is a fairly contemporary Russian primary trainer (1976) which I am sure is still in service.  The collapse of the USSR resulted in a number of them making there way to the US  (e.g. pic below).  Note shutters that close off cooling air from entering the cowling.  Super useful in some of the brutally cold areas of Russia.  Great for warming the engine up to operating temp quickly.  Not sure if that can be activated in flight since they might be useful to prevent shock cooling (an issue in air cooled aircraft engines) when descending with low power settings.

Yakovlev Yak-52 - Untitled | Aviation Photo #4421101 | Airliners.net

But of course painted in a Ukrainian scheme (partial pic)

 

This is a shot of the shot down (looks like they got the Orian to pop it's recovery chute).

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/28/24 11:02 p.m.

Another interesting tidbit.  It was not declared what they are for, but I can think of a VERY good use for them.  I am not sure if they are flight worthy, but even for parts, they are a bit of steal (especially in government purchase terms!).  Until the F16's get up and running the Su-24's especially are critical as I believe they are the only platform currently able to launch the Storm shadow missiles and the Russians have been going after them.  Hard to say how many are left in service.

The Mig-31 and Mig 27 (a ground attack version of a pretty horrible fighter that is a contemporary of the F4 Phantom) are essentially useless, but might make interesting drones if they are flyable!

US buys 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Russia's ally costing on average less than $20,000 each, report says

The US has acquired 81 obsolete Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan, the Kyiv Post reported.

Kazakhstan, which is upgrading its air fleet, auctioned off 117 Soviet-era fighter and bomber aircraft, including MiG-31 interceptors, MiG-27 fighter bombers, MiG-29 fighters, and Su-24 bombers from the 1970s and 1980s.

The declared sale value was one billion Kazakhstani tenge, said the Post, or $2.26 million, equalling an average value for each plane of $19,300...

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-buys-81-soviet-fighter-jets-from-russian-ally-20k-2024-4

jmabarone
jmabarone HalfDork
4/29/24 8:26 a.m.

A minor note from our missionary in Kharkiv.  In the past 2+ years, he has shared numerous images of strikes on hospitals and apartment buildings.  

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