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alfadriver
alfadriver GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
11/17/22 9:50 a.m.

In terms of global population- there are enough areas around the world that face a pretty significant dropping of birth rates.

Toyman!
Toyman! GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
11/17/22 10:34 a.m.

In reply to alfadriver :

The trend is already slowing. 

1 Billion  1804

2 Billion  1927

3 Billion  1960

4 Billion  1974

5 Billion  1987

6 Billion  1998

7 Billion  2010

8 Billion  2022 

9 Billion  2037 

10 Billion  2058

STM317
STM317 PowerDork
11/17/22 1:19 p.m.

 

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
11/17/22 1:52 p.m.

In reply to STM317 :

I don't have time to fact check right now but as a stats guy that graph looks suspiciously linear.

If you think about it, the annual percent increase would need to be decreasing at a rate that almost perfectly matches the annual multiple increase for many, many decades.

Of course, anything is possible but in the absence of some external factor (government control, etc.) natural processes rarely behave like that.

Added later...

I went to your source and downloaded an Excel file with the data...stuck it in statistical software (MiniTab)...generated this time series plot:

X Axis:  "1" = 1961 and "61" = 2021.

Y Axis:  Annual percent population increase.

Duke
Duke MegaDork
11/17/22 2:51 p.m.

In reply to RX Reven' :

It's also a graph of very large numbers over a relatively short period of time, that doesn't include any sudden paradigm-changing shifts in technology.

 

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