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Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/23/24 1:17 p.m.

Ooh!  Callin' it!

 

 

 

I do believe that accounts for 1/4 of their active fleet (and as I understand, the crews on these are rather specialized).

Also seeing early reports of a rotary wing kill further east.

Looks like they picked the wrong day to quit sniffing glue...

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
2/23/24 1:25 p.m.

It's looking like it was well behind the lines, so possibly Russian air defense?   Very strange plane to be taken down by their own defense (it should be working in coordination)

VolvoHeretic
VolvoHeretic GRM+ Memberand Dork
2/23/24 1:31 p.m.

It looked like it was dodging and weaving while launching it's flares. Must have been sucky to know what was chasing them down for a minute or two.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/23/24 1:31 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

I think I saw a source saying UA was taking credit, but I'm more leaning towards your line of thinking.  It's "Defender's Day" in russia, the guys running the AD were probably completely off their face by now...

 

Edit:  OSINTtechnical is now reporting Ukraine GUR has "taken credit for the shootdown", while the russians are still saying "friendly fire".  The wording "GUR has taken credit" is important as I trust the source doing the reporting, but this would be a 200km shot for them from the front which makes me think that both might be telling the truth.

< 100% speculation >

MALD in the area tricks russian AD into shooting their own A-50?

Cite:  For perspective, a Patriot missile, previously credited with SU kills near Avdiivka, has a 40-ish mile range.  A "MALD" is closer to 500NM which I think is a reasonable distance for an air delivery where it still has enough fat left over for operation in the area.  If such a thing was utilized then russian AD could have thought they were targeting a legitimate threat in the area (or a threat to their precious A-50) and lobbed their missiles.

I haven't yet confirmed that rotary kill I mentioned earlier, but that's too far away to be involved with this next point (I think), and that is I'm seeing a lot of "lesser credible" twitter accounts pop off with a second airframe kill in the area but I haven't seen evidence of a second airframe yet.

< / 100% speculation >

stroker
stroker PowerDork
2/23/24 2:11 p.m.
VolvoHeretic said:

It looked like it was dodging and weaving while launching it's flares. Must have been sucky to know what was chasing them down for a minute or two.

that's because Major Kong wasn't flying...

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/23/24 2:48 p.m.

Video from wreckage (safe for work)

 

looks like the explosion took the horizontal stab (T-tail)  right off the darn thing...

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/26/24 11:06 a.m.

Well, it's been a couple days.  I haven't seen a second airframe manifest itself.  I did see video of russian AD lobbing a missile in the direction of the A-50, but in it you could also see that the A-50 was already deploying countermeasures.  Ukraine is stating that it was a modified S200 of theirs that did the dirty work.

Either way, the russian AD team has been arrested and the UA defence is still taking credit.

BUT, it appears Sweden has been voted into the club!

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/26/europe/sweden-nato-accession-hungary-intl/index.html

 

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/26/24 2:25 p.m.

Reports of Indian nationals that have been sent to the front to fight for... neighbor Russia? under shady circumstances.  At least one of em K.I.A.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/26/24 8:01 p.m.

Here's a hint that there was nothing unintentional or untimed about Navalny's death, apparently disinformation campaigns targeting his wife started just a few weeks before he died:

https://www.wired.com/story/kremlin-backed-accounts-trying-to-destroy-yulia-navalnaya/

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/27/24 11:41 a.m.

The Kyiv Independent just published a Q/A that I thought was informative:

https://kyivindependent.com/our-readers-questions-about-the-war-answered-vol-5/

 

Also:

image.png

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1762485483697787206/photo/1

Scratch two more airframes!

stroker
stroker PowerDork
2/27/24 1:02 p.m.
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

The Kyiv Independent just published a Q/A that I thought was informative:

https://kyivindependent.com/our-readers-questions-about-the-war-answered-vol-5/

 

That struck me as pretty well balanced.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
2/27/24 1:17 p.m.

 

Ruzzia ceased the operation of A-50 AWACS airplanes near to Ukraine

Not terribly surprising considering how many Russian things seem to be falling out of the sky recently.  The Ukrainians have clearly figured something out.  I think the Russian literally only have a few of these planes left (as in maybe 3 or 4!).  This could be a bit of a problem for the Russians as it will severely impact there ability to see the airspace behind the Ukrainian lines and could be very useful for aircraft and helicopter operations (super useful once the F16's show up).  The Ukrainians almost certainly have very extensive information about Russian airspace because of the sharing of information with western forces (satellite as well as many surveillance aircraft over the boarder).

I do wonder if there is some sort of spoofing operation going on where the Russians are getting fooled somehow to shoot down their own aircraft. 

Russia has been exploiting the capture of Andiivka.  Still clearly not racing across open ground as you might expect from a breakthrough as the Ukrainians clearly knew about this likelihood for a long time.  Rumor is though that the Ukrainians did not setup as much defense as they might have. Or maybe just giving up the low ground (the ground west of Orlivka, across that river is high ground).

 

The Russians, as noted, have massed troops near Robotyne to try and capture it.  As of yet, this has resulted in just more mass casualties.  This slow advance of the Russians really does not bode well for any peace talk possibilities, as it really give the Russians little reason to negotiate unless the human or economic cost finally catches up to them (not a lot of indication of that of course)

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
2/27/24 1:35 p.m.

Also of interest:

Sri Lanka ends visas for hundreds of thousands of Russians staying there to avoid war

Sri Lanka has told hundreds of thousands of Russians and some Ukrainians staying in the country to escape the war that they must leave in the next two weeks, immigration officers said.

The immigration controller issued a notice to the tourism ministry asking Russian and Ukrainian people staying on extended tourist visas to leave Sri Lanka within two weeks from 23 February.

Just over 288,000 Russians and nearly 20,000 Ukrainians have traveled to Sri Lanka in the last two years since the war began, according to official data.....

 

.....It comes amid a furious social media backlash over Russian-run businesses with a “whites only” policy that strictly bars locals. These businesses include bars, restaurants, water sports and vehicle hiring services.....

eastsideTim
eastsideTim UltimaDork
2/27/24 1:44 p.m.

Looks like the refinery attacks are having an effect - Russia is banning gasoline exports for the next 6 months, except to a very limited number of countries.  Reuters article.  Wouldn't be surprised at all if that ban ends up getting extended.  I heard they are dialing back diesel exports, too, but not to the same extent.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/27/24 1:47 p.m.
aircooled said:

I do wonder if there is some sort of spoofing operation going on where the Russians are getting fooled somehow to shoot down their own aircraft.

I get very excited about MALDs quite often because I'm pretty sure the wreckage of at least two carcasses have been picked up sometime last year (ADM-160B).  The capabilities of the system and the many ways they can be used,  makes the nerd in me completely geek out (sorry, I'm a former EW guy). The problem is trying to prove they were used without a publicly released statement often just sounds like tin-foil hat stuff (like my post above)

Russia has been exploiting the capture of Andiivka.  Still clearly not racing across open ground as you might expect from a breakthrough as the Ukrainians clearly knew about this likelihood for a long time.  Rumor is though that the Ukrainians did not setup as much defense as they might have. Or maybe just giving up the low ground (the ground west of Orlivka, across that river is high ground).

I think you have it with that second one.  They're retreating while maintaining that delicate balance where they're not over-exerting themselves but still not giving the russians the momentum they want either.  There are still a couple lines of defense before any important settlements are challenged here though, I think.

I think the main vector now is going to be towards the north:

image.png

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1760682150998036488

And what’s said about the vectors in the clip seem to be accurate. So far this war I think we’ve seen the russians spread themselves quite thin until a vector of political opportunity exists, and then they focus their meat waves at that point until breaking the resistance in the area. Rinse, repeat.

This multi-vector attack seems to be more coordinated and mutually beneficial (that is, each vector supports the success of the others). This sucks and i want it to fail and go away.

There's also this:

image.png

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/

I'd love to say something catchy like "drones work better than sanctions" but really I think this is a combination of both at work (successfully).  But then again I really wonder what this means as my previous understanding is you don't normally ship the refined product, but instead the oil...    Anyhoo, probably a political move to keep fuel costs down to appease the masses.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
2/27/24 2:04 p.m.

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

Ukraine[edit]

In May 2023, remains of an ADM-160 MALD were found in Luhansk following a Ukrainian strike against a Russian target in the occupied city. A label on the side of the wreckage appears to indicate that it was a ADM-160B model.[25][26]

In December 2023, the wreckage of an ADM-160 MALD was photographed in a field, reportedly in the Kherson region, after being launched in support of Storm Shadow cruise missiles.[27][28]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADM-160_MALD

ADM-160 Miniature Air Launched Decoy Wreck Appears In Ukraine

For 100% Effectiveness of 'Storm Shadow' Strike, Ukraine Uses It Together With HARM and MALD

The combination of capabilities provided by the Storm Shadow attack missile, the AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile, and the MALD decoy makes a perfect synergy with an explosive impact on Ukraine's ability to breach russian multi-layer air defenses...

....The logic of application here is actually simple: first, an unmanned MALD is launched as a "bait" – the russians activate their air defense equipment and thus expose their location to the enemy; then, a HARM anti-radar missile targets the detected anti-aircraft system; and once russian air defense is suppressed and the sky is safe, a Storm Shadow is launched at the intended target.....

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/for_100_effectiveness_of_storm_shadow_strike_ukraine_uses_it_together_with_harm_and_mald-7540.html

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/27/24 2:24 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

That seriously makes my day laugh

The next thing that has me giggling with excitement is those MALDS, along with HARMs on F-16s, and (I'm really hoping here) datalink capabilities with these little guys that always seem to be floating around the near vicinity...

Stampie
Stampie GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/28/24 10:33 a.m.
Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/28/24 3:58 p.m.

Highway of Death

Each one of those rectangles is supposed to represent a Russian vehicle that has been destroyed along this road over some un-named period of time.

Damn.  Just damn.

The story be here: Highway of Death

 

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/29/24 5:15 a.m.

In reply to Noddaz :

You can call UA's air defense "butter" today, because they're on a ROLL!

 

 

It's not even noon, y'all!  If they scratch two more airframes, the beers are on me!

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/29/24 10:08 a.m.

The latest numbers from The Kyiv Independent:

Image

 

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1763117866885275871/photo/1

 

Four-hundred-berking-thousand...

 

stroker
stroker PowerDork
2/29/24 12:07 p.m.

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

they might start paying attention at a half a million...

I've seen Justin Bronk on Ward Carroll's YT feed a few times and I thought THIS was exceptionally enlightening. 

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/29/24 12:46 p.m.

In reply to stroker :

They're using Zapp Brannigan tactics.

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse UltimaDork
2/29/24 1:36 p.m.

In reply to Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) :

The "losses" of 400,000 is a bit misleading, as that includes killed and injured.  From wikipedia:

 Still a E36 M3 ton of people, though.  :-(

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

 

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/29/24 1:39 p.m.

That part is STILL funny.

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