Replace My F-250 with Ford Lightning and Save Money?

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to dculberson :

An XLT crew cab 4WD is not a base XLT. 
 

The F-150 XLT starts at $35,050

2 door 2wd that's a completely different truck. You say "equivalent" in one post then compare apples to oranges. Compare 4 door 4wd and they're about the same price. Cheaper after tax credit. They sell way more 4 door 4 wheel drive f150s than the 2 door 2wd models. Even work trucks up here are all 4 door 4wd. Then the foreman gets a platinum and the owner gets a king ranch. 

Also, they stated from the beginning that they plan to offer the 2 door they're just starting with the most popular model. They're going to be battery supply constrained for a long time so it'll be a while until we see a 2 door I think. 

I'll add that the older I get, I've become less concerned with how quickly I get to my destination and more with how pleasant the trip is.  When I was regularly traveling from SE PA to NH and back, often took the long way to get there because it was a less stressful drive than the shorter/faster route.  Granted, it helped I was being paid the for the drive and the longer drive meant more $/mile reimbursed to me (it helped the longer drive was considerably less in tolls).

Wow, this thread got a lot of replies while I watched the new (3-hour-long...) James Bond movie. Sorry for not paying better attention!

A few points in no particular order:

Price. It seems to cost about the same amount as the normal F-150. The work truck model has four doors, AWD, CarPlay, power windows, automatic A/C, etc. for $32,500 after the tax credit. That seems like a bargain for a new F150. I'm assuming the larger pack will add about $10,000 to the price, making it a $50k truck. Lots of assumptions, but that's all we have until more details come out. And yes, the tax credit is real: My wife bought a Honda Clarity a few years ago, then Uncle Sam sent a $7500 check. Neat! 

I don't ask for much in my tow vehicle: Four seats, CarPlay, cruise control, four-wheel-drive and a relatively quiet cabin are my only firm requirements.

Cost of ownership vs. my V10: I put 15,000 miles or so per year on my truck, and it barely moves unless hooked to a trailer. At 8 mpg and $3/gallon, that's $468/month in fuel alone. Add oil changes, shocks, transmission rebuild, etc etc (all the expenses that come with driving around a truck with 200,000 miles), and it's not hard to picture a world where all that is replaced with a truck payment. Charging at home is so close to free it's barely worth doing the math for (I learned that with my last electric car). This isn't relevant to my original question, but if I have a modern F150 with free fuel, do I also need a Honda to daily drive? Or can a Lightning fill both roles and cut more fuel/insurance/maintenance out of my life?

Also, don't forget that my current truck has a resale value, especially these days. That's relevant both to me (I'd sell it and get money) and to our hypothetical truck shopper, as they can't get a V10 for free.

Fuel stop time: Time yourself from exiting the highway to getting on the highway. They take longer than most people think. I don't treat gas stops like NASCAR pit stops; I take my time. But I'm also able to knock down 1100 mile days when I have to because I'm able to pace myself. On shorter drives, this strategy means I'm not exhausted the next day.

I've already learned a fair bit and am slowly filling in the blanks; thanks for the feedback everybody!

Oh, and regarding availability: I have no delusions that I'll be able to get one anytime soon. I do think there's a good chance I'll be able to borrow a press truck for a weekend once they hit the streets, though, so hopefully I can test my theory before they've been around too long. 

In reply to dculberson :

Your points seem accurate, for the little I know about newer stuff. I usually tend to drive 10 year old vehicles, so can't say for sure. 
But the points are for the folks that have gotten pretty far off topic. 
Frenchyds points are all over the map, and using random information to say... well, something. Can't really tell. 

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to SVreX (Forum Supporter) :

I love turbo engines as much as the next guy but I would not want an ecoboost for lots of towing.

I will give props to ford on their eco boost power.  At a 12.5K tow rating the engine in the 2011 we inherited from my FIL, would pull that all day long. Sad that the 150 chassis was not up to the task. Where ferd missed was the name. Absolutely nothing eco about that engine. The 3.5 got 17 - 19 regular driving (19 was really being carful) and 11 -12 towing. Power was NOT a problem, but eco it was not! At 57K still ran like brand new, but can't say for longevity beyond that. 

dculberson said:

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to dculberson :

An XLT crew cab 4WD is not a base XLT. 
 

The F-150 XLT starts at $35,050

2 door 2wd that's a completely different truck. You say "equivalent" in one post then compare apples to oranges. Compare 4 door 4wd and they're about the same price. Cheaper after tax credit. They sell way more 4 door 4 wheel drive f150s than the 2 door 2wd models. Even work trucks up here are all 4 door 4wd. Then the foreman gets a platinum and the owner gets a king ranch. 

Yeah, that's true. "Base model" does not equal "base model". My bad. 
 

But "capable inexpensive tow vehicle" does not necessarily mean crew cab 4WD XLT either. If shopping for a basic capable tow vehicle that is inexpensive, Lightning does not appear to be the answer. 
 

Price?  Well... Ford hasn't actually committed, so it's a bit of a moot point to debate. There are still too many variables to have any idea what the actual end price to consumers will be. How much are the destination fees?  Will dealers add a dealer premium?  What models will actually be available?  Will the prices skyrocket because of "chip shortages"?  If the buyers with the most cash are first in line, will there be ANY "base models" made available?  Will they limit base model purchases to commercial buyers?  Who will qualify for the incentives?  If buyers are uncomfortable with the 230 mile range, will they offer any without the $10K up charge for the extended range?

Keep in mind, Ford is not marketing the Lightning for its environmental footprint, or its fuel economy.  They are marketing it as a TRUCK, with MOOR POWAR!  It's a great marketing approach, and if it works there is absolutely no reason Ford will need to hold the prices low.

IIRC, Elon Musk got a lot of people to sign up for Model 3s for under $30K (until they actually became available and the price went up). 
 

It's really too early to know what the real purchase costs will be. Ford likes it that way. 

GRM answer: get an aux tank for the V10 F250 - that's what my dad did after towing a 30' fifth wheel behind his V10 F250 and tiring of stopping to refuel every 200 miles  

Cost no object answer:  get the Lightning. I'm curious as hell. 

Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:

I'll add that the older I get, I've become less concerned with how quickly I get to my destination and more with how pleasant the trip is.  When I was regularly traveling from SE PA to NH and back, often took the long way to get there because it was a less stressful drive than the shorter/faster route.  Granted, it helped I was being paid the for the drive and the longer drive meant more $/mile reimbursed to me (it helped the longer drive was considerably less in tolls).

At 73 I haven't reached that point.  ( where I fail to take the shortest fastest route).  I like major endurance runs. Across country, north to south. Easy to west etc. 

     I push for 22+ hours before I pull into a roadside rest.  So the charging bit will force me to adapt. 

OHSCrifle said:

GRM answer: get an aux tank for the V10 F250 - that's what my dad did after towing a 30' fifth wheel behind his V10 F250 and tiring of stopping to refuel every 200 miles  

Cost no object answer:  get the Lightning. I'm curious as hell. 

The trouble with the wait and see approach, likely Ford  will sell enough  Lightening trucks to exceed the government limit for rebates in 4-6 months. So the wait and see approach will cost $7500. 
 

In reply to 03Panther :

My ecoboost has 90k on it. I put 25k on it in the 10 months I've owned it 

Power all day long. Super reliable but I can tell it's due for some plugs. I do get oil changes every 5-7k miles. 

I'm looking at f150 hybrids because they are very tempting. I'd love a Lightning and don't mind extra stop time since my kids and wife are usually with me on trips lol

I wonder if Buccee's has electric stations yet

In reply to yupididit :

My objection to buying a lightening. Is my actuarial numbers. According to them I have 11 more years.   My currant truck will be paid off next year.  Only has 70,000 miles.  Likely it won't even reach 200,000 by the time I take my dirt nap or become a Chrispy critter. 

In reply to frenchyd :

I suspect very soon that I'll end up buying a cheap hybrid (2nd gen Prius) and not drive my Expedition at all except for towing and road trips. 

In reply to frenchyd :

I've had similar thoughts after buying  a new truck in 2019. I'm about to turn 70 and I keep vehicles for 10-15 years, especially now with retirement plus Covid keeping my mileage down. I'll be well over 80 (if I last that long) when the truck gets to 200K. At the rate it's currently accruing mileage it'll be another 24 years.

frenchyd said:

OHSCrifle said:

GRM answer: get an aux tank for the V10 F250 - that's what my dad did after towing a 30' fifth wheel behind his V10 F250 and tiring of stopping to refuel every 200 miles  

Cost no object answer:  get the Lightning. I'm curious as hell. 

The trouble with the wait and see approach, likely Ford  will sell enough  Lightening trucks to exceed the government limit for rebates in 4-6 months. So the wait and see approach will cost $7500. 
 

The battery supply isn't there for that sales rate. It's going to be closer to 40k/year. The rebates will last for a few years. 

yupididit said:

In reply to 03Panther :

My ecoboost has 90k on it. I put 25k on it in the 10 months I've owned it 

 

Power all day long. Super reliable but I can tell it's due for some plugs. I do get oil changes every 5-7k miles. 

Mine too. I've put 100K on it in 14 months, and tow anything I feel like. 
 

The fact that other people don't want to tow with a turbo, or don't trust the "modern tech", or think a V8 is better are all the reasons this truck will continue to be a bargain. 
 

These folks are welcome to their opinions. I'll keep enjoying driving mine!

(although I will agree with what was noted earlier... an F150 chassis will never be as capable a towing machine as a 3/4 ton. But it's a compromise I am will to make because I won't be towing 12K very often, or very far)

Now, back to Lightnings...

In reply to Keith Tanner :

The battery supply may dictate the sales rate, but they already have 130,000 reservations in place, so the rebates may still be unavailable. 
 

Yet to be seen....

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

The battery supply may dictate the sales rate, but they already have 130,000 reservations in place, so the rebates may still be unavailable. 
 

Yet to be seen....

The maximum federal rebate is capped at 200k vehicles, then it tapers over the next calendar year IIRC. State credits have different rules. The Mach-E will add to Ford's numbers. 

I would not expect those 130k reservations to turn into 130k sales, not even close. A bunch of them will go to Rivian, some will go to gas vehicles, others will just be people who were interested but aren't ready to buy when the opportunity arises. The point stands though - the rebate for Ford will be around for a few years. 

Tom Suddard said:

Oh, and regarding availability: I have no delusions that I'll be able to get one anytime soon. I do think there's a good chance I'll be able to borrow a press truck for a weekend once they hit the streets, though, so hopefully I can test my theory before they've been around too long. 

I for one would be very interested in your experience if/when you get a press vehicle. 

For those concerned about the $7500 EV tax credit, Ford's PHEVs count toward the 200k vehicle cap. They sold from 2013-2020. So, as of Jun 2020 Ford had about 70k slots remaining before the credit would begin to be phased out and now has over 160k pending reservations for the Lightning.

Current legislation may alter a lot of that, and may even increase the credit to $12500, but that's not certain yet.

Ford is only planning on making about 15k Lightnings in 2022 (probably concentrated in the CARB states if I had to guess), and increasing to about 80k annually by 2024 (roughly 10% of F-series sales). No word how the chip shortage may impact those targets. Either way, I think it's safe to say that it's not going to be a common sight on the road or dealer lots for a couple of years. The "Next Generation" Lightning is expected in 2025, and may see higher production volumes.

So, it's likely that every Lightning sold in 2022 will qualify for the full tax credit, but that's primarily due to production constraints.

One other thing to consider with charging is that just because there is a big bank of Electrify America chargers at the rest stop it doesn't mean they are actually working.  One common theme in a lot of the reviews of the Mach-E has been "it should be really easy to charge this car on a road trip but twice we pulled up to a charger and it was out of order or charging incredibly slowly". I'm sure that will improve as demand increases but right now Tesla seems to be the only charging system that gets maintained well.

EA definitely has had some challenges. 

Didn't realize the PHEVs counted towards the rebate cap. Bad news for Ford there. 

In reply to STM317 :

Thanks for filling me in on that. Was not aware exactly of how that played out. 

In reply to DeadSkunk (Warren) :

What hurts my numbers is my weight. I'm about 100 pounds over where I should be.
  But so far I've got 25 years past my father. And 8 past my grandfather.