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etifosi
etifosi SuperDork
5/6/24 4:03 p.m.

I think there are maths missing from the equation. How much might it cost to NOT intercept that incoming missile or UAV?

stroker
stroker PowerDork
5/6/24 4:03 p.m.

In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :

As compared to the cost of letting the drones hit their targets...?  smiley

I get your point--but you've got to look at the whole picture, economically.

jmabarone
jmabarone HalfDork
5/6/24 4:21 p.m.
stroker said:

In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :

As compared to the cost of letting the drones hit their targets...?  smiley

I get your point--but you've got to look at the whole picture, economically.

That's the Israeli attitude.  The cost of interception far outweighs the cost of an impact.  

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/6/24 4:48 p.m.

Well... OK then, so... more "every body dies in nuclear fire then"?

Anyway... lets go to Bob with weather...

We will perceive the appearance of F-16 aircraft in Ukraine as carriers of nuclear weapons, regardless of their modification, - Russian Foreign Ministry

Fueled by Caffeine
Fueled by Caffeine MegaDork
5/6/24 4:54 p.m.
stroker said:

In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :

As compared to the cost of letting the drones hit their targets...?  smiley

I get your point--but you've got to look at the whole picture, economically.

Sure. We just need cheaper and better tech to wipe these things out. 

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
5/6/24 7:08 p.m.
aircooled said:

Well... OK then, so... more "every body dies in nuclear fire then"?

Anyway... lets go to Bob with weather...

We will perceive the appearance of F-16 aircraft in Ukraine as carriers of nuclear weapons, regardless of their modification, - Russian Foreign Ministry

No one is paying attention to these statements except A) Russians who have no other news sources, and B) Western analysts of the panicky sort. The Russians have shown time and again that they are very much aware of how to balance and manage the escalation ladder, as well as how to spin Western actions to serve their domestic agenda.

AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter)
AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) UltraDork
5/7/24 8:20 a.m.
P3PPY
P3PPY GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
5/7/24 11:39 p.m.
aircooled said:

Well... OK then, so... more "every body dies in nuclear fire then"?

Anyway... lets go to Bob with weather...

 

Bill Hicks and/or Tool?

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/8/24 1:42 p.m.

Looks like the Russians have already given up on the Kerch bridge.

Satellite images show Russia no longer using Crimean bridge to supply troops in Ukraine

After repeated Ukranian attacks on Kerch Bridge, Putin’s forces are relying on land routes through annexed eastern Ukraine to supply front lines

....Analysis of satellite images shows that the bridge, which Russia built after annexing Crimea in 2014, has almost no traffic and may therefore no longer represent an effective military target for Ukraine’s ammunition-strapped troops, according to analysts at Molfar, Ukraine’s biggest private intelligence agency....

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-crimea-bridge-russia-land-routes-b2540140.html

 

Attempted assassination.  Generally, leaders don't like to order the assassination of other leaders.  Sets a bad precedent.  Makes them a target.  

The SBU exposed a network of agents of the 5th service of the FSB of the Russian Federation who were preparing the assassination of the President of Ukraine: two colonels of the UDO were detained.

To carry out the crime, they planned to use FPV drones, charges for RPG-7, as well as MON-90 anti-personnel mines.

The attempt was planned under the supervision of employees of the 5th department of the FSB as a gift to Vladimir Putin for the inauguration.

So far, the arrested persons have been notified of suspicion under the following articles of the Criminal Code of Ukraine:
▪️ h. 2 Art. 111 (treason committed under martial law);
▪️ h. 1 Art. 14, Part 2 of Art. 258 (preparation for a terrorist act).

The suspect was remanded in custody. The extras face life imprisonment.

The Russians have another America (US Army serviceman) to play with.  I wonder what we will trade for this idiot?  (hopefully nothing):

An American military man arrested in Russia was detained following a complaint from his girlfriend about theft and beating. She posted it on Tiktok, where she affectionately called him “my pindos”...

....The circumstances of combat instructor Black's trip to the Russian Federation are currently being investigated by the US Army. He decided to go to Russia on his own, taking advantage of the redeployment from Korea to Texas and despite the ban on such trips.

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/8/24 2:01 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

Buddy of mine was an Army SSgt.  Said that one of the reasons he got out was because of how tired he got of babysitting his troops and making sure they didn't berk up.

It took a while of paying attention to just what made it into the news cycles till I finally understood how right he was.

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
5/9/24 10:08 a.m.
P3PPY said:
aircooled said:

Well... OK then, so... more "every body dies in nuclear fire then"?

Anyway... lets go to Bob with weather...

 

Bill Hicks and/or Tool?

Yeah on the song My Third Eye. 

"See, I think drugs have done some good things for us, I really do. And if you don't believe drugs have done good things for us, do me a favor - go home tonight and take all your albums, all your tapes, and all your CDs and burn 'em. 'Cause you know what? The musicians who've made all that great music that's enhanced your lives throughout the years... real berkeleying high on drugs."

"Today a young man on acid realized that all matter is merely energy condensed to a slow vibration. That we are all one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively. There is no such thing as death, life is only a dream, and we are the imagination of ourselves. Here's Tom with the weather."

"It's not a war on drugs, it's a war on personal freedom, that's what it is, okay? Keep that in mind at all times, thank you."

P3PPY
P3PPY GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
5/9/24 10:17 a.m.

In reply to z31maniac :

I often find that useful for a non sequitur, myself. Except I had also switched Tom to Bob. 
What an intense and fascinating CD

Theyre missing a few "R"s from captioning Mr. Hicks' quote though. "Rrrrrrrrrreal high on drugs"

 

Back to 02Pilot with the weather...

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/10/24 12:45 p.m.

The Ukranian's managed another impressive strike on a refinery with their plane drone, this time in Bashkiria Russia.  That's almost 1000 miles from Ukraine!  You can see how impressive that is below.  Defending these (once they get past the front lines) is going to be a huge issue for the Russians (apparently it doesn't take much, with a precise strike to severely impact the output of a refinery)

 

The Russians have also started there attack in the Kharkiv direction (north east).  So far, not much gain.  They certainly don't have the troops to attack the city and it is suspected they are primarily just trying to capture some ground in that direction.  This will likely primarily serve to spread out the Ukrainians a bit more (which of course also spreads out the Russians).

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
5/10/24 3:10 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

Interesting.  That is a far shot.  And it makes me wonder if you even need to crash a plane into a target these days.  If you have some local to the target saboteurs that plant a charge and then upload pictures or video of a small plane crashing.  And the internet would fill in the rest.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/10/24 4:49 p.m.

In reply to Noddaz :

I suspect the issue with that is, even in non-war times, the security at those facilities is still pretty good, especially in critical areas(?)

I was thinking a similar thing though.  That far from the front line, how are these things targeting, so exactly?  I was thinking maybe they have a spotter there that can control the targeting, but that would actually be a rather sophisticated solutions (have some way to take over the plane and see from a camera on it for example).  I suspect, especially this far back, they are just using GPS.  Russia can certainly put GPS jammers in all their refineries, within a 1000 miles of Ukraine (!) but that would clearly be a lot of effort (but may be the case eventually).

As noted in the Gaza thread (I really ment to put it here) Aeroviorments has developed an drone add on that uses AI to search and pick out targets when entirely jammed.  Those would be perfect for something like this if Russia does start scattering jammers around.

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
5/10/24 5:19 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

This makes me wonder at this point, can Russia make high tech weapons and high tech jammers at the same time.  With the Russian industry somewhat short on available electronics, Russia can only make one of the two in quantity.  And Russia would chose weapons.  Russia also has one problem that is bigger than Ukraine.  Russia has a lot more area to try to defend.  It would be impossible for Russia to protect it all.

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
5/14/24 8:47 a.m.

Shoigu is out as defense minister, replaced by Andrei Belousov, an economist. This may seem an odd choice, and it is in some ways, but Belousov is probably well-placed to manage a long-term active commitment (like a contested occupation), and is untainted by corruption as far as we know. He is a technocrat with an industrial policy background, which suggests that he will be looking to restructure the military's procurement and R&D sectors to better cope with demands and shortcomings revealed in the last couple of years. Further, he has already made statements about improving soldier welfare and care, which demonstrates that 1) the Russian government is aware that this is a problem that exists and will get worse over time (like during a contested occupation), and 2) that the existing military command structure is not trusted by either the leadership or the troops. He is also hawkish and a Putin loyalist, but seems to be more thoughtful than most. I would not be surprised if this ends up being a prelude to declaring some level of victory by the fall and setting up an expanded occupation zone incorporating the territory currently held.

Shoigu has not been scheduled for a window exit, it seems. Instead, he's been shuffled over to the Russian Security Council, replacing Nikolai Petrushev, an extreme hawk, who in turn becomes a Kremlin aide (whatever that means). One presumes Putin wants to keep them close but less able to act on their own.

All of this reminds me of the old days of Cold War Kremlinology, trying to figure out who was in favor and who was on a bus to Siberia by checking the seating order and proximity to Brezhnev in grainy photos of the annual Victory Day parade reviewing stand. Good times.

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
5/14/24 8:52 a.m.

Saw something about Ukraine hitting a long distance radar installation inside Russia.  Wonder what sort of damage was done.

eastsideTim
eastsideTim UltimaDork
5/14/24 9:10 a.m.
Mr_Asa said:

Saw something about Ukraine hitting a long distance radar installation inside Russia.  Wonder what sort of damage was done.

Hopefully that is a prelude to some more strikes inside Russia.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/14/24 11:44 a.m.

Putin continues to shuffle the top military people in some sort of reform.  As O2 noted, this is suspected to have a lot to do with loyalty and who is least likely to do any stabbing in the back (looking at you Brutus).  Of note is that Belousov has zero military experience, though Shoigu is still in place, just at a lower level (so maybe no change in how they fight?).  Perhaps an indication they are trying to be open to the every evolving weapons and counter weapons (e.g. drones).

Z-groups write that the Speaker of the Russian Ministry of Defense Konashenkov resigned

Surovikin reportedly visited Kremlin. The details of the meeting are unknown. I may just speculate that he will be proposed with high position. 

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-suffers-highest-daily-casualties-ukraine-war-1740-troops-eliminated-1899692

In an apparent effort of continuous improvement, Russia has out done itself again(!):    (Ukrainian source)

Russia Suffers Highest Daily Casualties of War So Far: Kyiv

Russia lost 1,740 troops in a single day, marking the highest number of daily Russian casualties since the start of the war more than two years ago, Ukraine's military said on Monday.

Moscow's troops have sustained around 484,030 casualties since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to statistics published by Kyiv's armed forces.

In an update posted to social media, Ukraine's military also said Russian forces had lost more than 30 tanks and 42 armored vehicles in the previous 24 hours

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/14/24 11:54 a.m.

Ukraine is up to a bit of trickery again.  Essentially comparing the Russians to WWII Nazis and the absurdity of them claiming to be eliminating Nazis.  They have a new term:  "Ruscists"

Every TV in occupied Crimea broadcasts footage of Russian torture chamber after Ukrainian hack

 

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
5/14/24 11:57 a.m.
aircooled said:

 

Russia Suffers Highest Daily Casualties of War So Far: Kyiv

Russia lost 1,740 troops in a single day, marking the highest number of daily Russian casualties since the start of the war more than two years ago, Ukraine's military said on Monday.

Moscow's troops have sustained around 484,030 casualties since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to statistics published by Kyiv's armed forces.

In an update posted to social media, Ukraine's military also said Russian forces had lost more than 30 tanks and 42 armored vehicles in the previous 24 hours

How real is that casualty number? And what's the attrition rate for Ukraine? I get the sense that Ukraine's having more trouble with enlistment. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/14/24 12:22 p.m.

In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :

Yeah, hard to say.  As noted, those are Ukrainian estimates.  Given the current situation, with the Russians on the offensive, you would expect much higher casualties from the Russians, especially considering their rather carefree approach to their soldiers lives.  Of note of course is that artillery tends to cause a good amount of casualties, and the Russians have been throwing a LOT of that in the Kharkiv region.

Possibly more concerning than raw numbers issues, the prime issue for the Ukrainians might be moral.  It's likely many units get very little rest or even rotation out of the front lines (because of the lack of troops).  The recent increase in Western support should help that (?)

Along those lines.  France has previously talked about sending troops into Ukraine in support roles (non-combat, more logistic type things).  Now Estonia is seriously considering doing the same thing.  This would free up Ukrainian troops to go to the front.

Estonian official says Tallinn ‘seriously’ discussing sending troops to Ukraine for non-combat roles

...."We should be looking at all the possibilities. We shouldn't have our minds restricted as to what we can do," he added.

While Estonia would prefer to send troops as part of a NATO-wide mission, Roll said that a smaller coalition would not be ruled out....

https://kyivindependent.com/estonian-official-says-country-is-seriously-considering-sending-troops-for-non-combat-duties/

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/14/24 12:36 p.m.

In regards to the Russian Kharkiv offensive.  The general state seems to be: they are making progress.  Certainly not a breakthrough but steadily moving forward.  The strategy of the Ukrainians seems to be to slowly fall back, making the Russians pay (this was very successfully done, in terms of making the Russians pay a huge price, by the Germans in their retreat in the Eastern front in WWII).  They have apparently created defensive lines a few miles back, well outside of Kharkiv.

The guess is, one of the primary motivations for the Russian offensive here is to try and break the Ukrainians (create some sort of breakthrough or general collapse) before significant Western aid arrives.  Those F16's are coming soon... and the will likely start lobbing their own (likely far more accurate) glide bombs....

Here is an idea of the situation, form the 9th to today (ish):

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/14/24 12:40 p.m.

Looks like they may (?) have figure out how to take the "hanger" tanks out.  Here is a T-62 based one that is blowed up.  The tracks look intact, so it seems like they might have just flown a drone through the front opening (?)

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