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Chris_V
Chris_V UberDork
5/15/17 9:40 a.m.
759NRNG wrote: Let us not forget that fossil fuel rocks this house ........if ELon M is your savior ......carry on bro, and let Al gore guide y'all to the promised nether verse ....err what did he promise?.....sorry I'm old and going TO BED. BWAHahahahahahahahha!!!! yu millenulz have got a lot to c o n t e m p l a t e

No more posting while drunk, ok?

4cylndrfury
4cylndrfury MegaDork
5/15/17 10:37 a.m.
Chris_V wrote:
759NRNG wrote: Let us not forget that fossil fuel rocks this house ........if ELon M is your savior ......carry on bro, and let Al gore guide y'all to the promised nether verse ....err what did he promise?.....sorry I'm old and going TO BED. BWAHahahahahahahahha!!!! yu millenulz have got a lot to c o n t e m p l a t e
No more posting while drunk, ok?

I mean srsly...jeez. Have another one for me

iceracer
iceracer UltimaDork
5/15/17 11:04 a.m.

Does autonomous mean electric only? Haven't heard that.

STM317
STM317 Dork
5/15/17 11:36 a.m.

In reply to iceracer:

No. But autonomous tech, and electric tech are on similar paths right now, and the overlap between the 2 is only anticipated to grow. Tesla's autopilot, Lyft planning to use autonomous Chevy Bolts in a couple of years, Google and Apple's aborted car projects, etc are examples. Most of the other autonomous stuff currently on roads is hybrid at the very least, and often offer some type of electric only range.

Both areas (autonomous tech and full electric) seem to be getting heavy investment from companies across the automotive realm, so the manufacturers and suppliers seem to think that's the future. Or they're trying to steer the market that way because they see higher profits than traditional manufacturing.

FlightService
FlightService MegaDork
5/15/17 12:00 p.m.

In reply to iceracer:

STM is right. GM had autopilot I think on test Buicks in the 1980s. They were being tested on a special section of road out west. It used special markers embedded in the road and radar in each vehicle to travel about 6" apart at 80mph.

I will see if I can find the video.

The TerraMaxx is a DARPA winning military autonomous vehicle. It has human backups in an offsite location but it decides on its own what to do.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/jV51BGIzkwU

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
5/15/17 12:07 p.m.

Article in USA Today said:

"Tech companies such as Alphabet and automakers such as Ford are targeting 2021 for the first commercial rollout of self-driving ride-hailing fleets".

That's 4 years, fellas.

Ian F
Ian F MegaDork
5/15/17 12:09 p.m.

I can imagine some other advantages to autonomous cars besides snoozing during a long commute:

  1. You get to the office and it's pouring. Sideways. In lieu of parking the car some hundreds of feet away and then dashing across the parking lot getting soaked, you have your car drop you off by the front door and it goes off an parks itself. Likewise, when leaving, you "call" your car and it comes to the front door and picks you up.

  2. For those who live in congested cities, there could be centralized parking areas where you keep your car. For electric cars, these spaces can be equipped for charging. When you're getting ready to leave your mid-town flat, you call your car and it comes to you.

  3. Similar to above, you go into a city for whatever reason - a show, visit friends, whatever. You drive in, your car drops you off at your destination, and then goes off and finds parking without you. To anyone who has spent 30 min driving around frantically looking for a parking spot, that sounds like heaven.

While example #2 doesn't really apply to me living in a single suburban house, #1 and #3 definitely could.

SVreX
SVreX MegaDork
5/15/17 12:58 p.m.

I'm vacationing this week on a FL island. Typical beachy laid back environment.

If I had a bicycle, I could cover the entire island. I don't. Well, I guess I could rent one.

Each time we need something, I realize the last thing I actually want to do is get in the car, but the island is a bit too big to walk.

But, if there were autonomous golf carts that I could hail with my smart phone.... HOLY crap! I'd be totally in!

The technology exists right now, and there would be minimal legal challenges etc. Such a system could be programmed with every single driveway, crosswalk, pot hole, street address, and dive bar on the entire island, along with current events and upcoming activities. Family and friends could ride together, and the thing could be programmed to never cross the bridge or leave the island.

I suspect there are many similar subsets of transportation in all kinds of environments that could use the technology exceptionally well, with significantly lower liabilities and semi-controlled environments.

Trackmouse
Trackmouse SuperDork
5/15/17 1:22 p.m.

This thread is STILL going???

mtn
mtn MegaDork
5/15/17 1:25 p.m.
Ian F wrote: I can imagine some other advantages to autonomous cars besides snoozing during a long commute: 1. You get to the office and it's pouring. Sideways. In lieu of parking the car some hundreds of feet away and then dashing across the parking lot getting soaked, you have your car drop you off by the front door and it goes off an parks itself. Likewise, when leaving, you "call" your car and it comes to the front door and picks you up. 2. For those who live in congested cities, there could be centralized parking areas where you keep your car. For electric cars, these spaces can be equipped for charging. When you're getting ready to leave your mid-town flat, you call your car and it comes to you. 3. Similar to above, you go into a city for whatever reason - a show, visit friends, whatever. You drive in, your car drops you off at your destination, and then goes off and finds parking without you. To anyone who has spent 30 min driving around frantically looking for a parking spot, that sounds like heaven. While example #2 doesn't really apply to me living in a single suburban house, #1 and #3 definitely could.

The other big things: People with MS/ALS/Other disabled people, and the elderly.

chaparral
chaparral Dork
5/15/17 1:27 p.m.
SVreX wrote: The far better conversation among car enthusiasts would be to discuss the opportinities they will create, and how we will respond as enthusiasts.

For one, it'll be the best thing that ever happened to karting. If your road car drives itself, then all you will want to drive for is fun or competition, and a kart takes up less space/time/money than any car.

STM317
STM317 Dork
5/15/17 1:42 p.m.

In reply to chaparral:

This might be true in the short term, but I bet over time, people will lose interest in piloting their own vehicles, or even in owning their own vehicles at all. And that's probably not good for karting or any motorsport.

Ian F
Ian F MegaDork
5/15/17 1:52 p.m.

In reply to STM317:

Possibly. But then we go back to the horse analogy.

Chris_V
Chris_V UberDork
5/15/17 2:11 p.m.
Ian F wrote: In reply to STM317: Possibly. But then we go back to the horse analogy.

This. Horses for recreational use seem to be doing fine 100+ years after being retired from transportation duty.

Tyler H
Tyler H GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
5/15/17 2:49 p.m.
Chris_V wrote:
Ian F wrote: In reply to STM317: Possibly. But then we go back to the horse analogy.
This. Horses for recreational use seem to be doing fine 100+ years after being retired from transportation duty.

More than one person I know got into racing because horses were too expensive. Doesn't bode well for affordable motorsports.

Joe Gearin
Joe Gearin Associate Publisher
5/15/17 3:42 p.m.

The horse analogy makes me wonder.......

Can I ride a horse down a city street? Could I take my horse to work? Seriously I'm not sure if it's legal to ride a horse anywhere you like, or if there are restrictions--- like you can only ride on private property-- zoned for horses, or in State-owned conservation lands.

Are we going to have to rely on automated tow vehicles to take our "dumb" cars to a far away "Country Club" racetracks / driving areas? 200 years ago, your horse was your primary transportation device. These days, they are relegated to farms, wealthy home-owners, or polo clubs. Will this be the case for non-automated cars? I dunno.....but I hope not.

oldopelguy
oldopelguy UltraDork
5/15/17 4:09 p.m.

Thinking about the horse analogy and the all-electric comments earlier in the thread made me just realize that aside from the speed component I could probably come up with an autonomous vehicle challenge winner for about $10k plus a few months of training. How tough would it be to modify a fitbit for a horse/dog/camel and build a box to simulate a rider to guide the animal? Put a tiny sled behind a Husky with a dozen command in mp3 files and who needs a drone?

wheelsmithy
wheelsmithy GRM+ Memberand Dork
5/15/17 4:48 p.m.
Joe Gearin wrote: Could I take my horse to work?

Bobzilla
Bobzilla MegaDork
5/15/17 4:56 p.m.
Joe Gearin wrote: The horse analogy makes me wonder....... Can I ride a horse down a city street? Could I take my horse to work? Seriously I'm not sure if it's legal to ride a horse anywhere you like, or if there are restrictions--- like you can only ride on private property-- zoned for horses, or in State-owned conservation lands. Are we going to have to rely on automated tow vehicles to take our "dumb" cars to a far away "Country Club" racetracks / driving areas? 200 years ago, your horse was your primary transportation device. These days, they are relegated to farms, wealthy home-owners, or polo clubs. Will this be the case for non-automated cars? I dunno.....but I hope not.

I had the same thoughts earlier as well. I don't think that the horse has faired all that well in modern times as transportation. In fact, it's been relegated to nothing but a pet.

racerdave600
racerdave600 SuperDork
5/15/17 5:54 p.m.
Joe Gearin wrote: The horse analogy makes me wonder....... Can I ride a horse down a city street? Could I take my horse to work? Seriously I'm not sure if it's legal to ride a horse anywhere you like, or if there are restrictions--- like you can only ride on private property-- zoned for horses, or in State-owned conservation lands. Are we going to have to rely on automated tow vehicles to take our "dumb" cars to a far away "Country Club" racetracks / driving areas? 200 years ago, your horse was your primary transportation device. These days, they are relegated to farms, wealthy home-owners, or polo clubs. Will this be the case for non-automated cars? I dunno.....but I hope not.

Funny you mention that, but I saw a guy riding a horse down the middle of town last week. It looked very odd. Of course he was wearing a cowboy hat, so I suppose that made it ok.

Furious_E
Furious_E GRM+ Memberand Dork
5/15/17 6:40 p.m.

I think where the horse analogy falls apart to some extent is that the difference in speed capability between a horse and your average car is much greater than that from an autnomous to non-autonomous car. Living in central PA, it's not uncommon to experience the occasional horse and buggy and the speed differential can make for some sketchy moments around a blind hill or turn. I don't think there will be any inherent reason why you couldnt operate autonomous and old fashioned cars together on the road, as that will have to be the case by necessity while the technology develops.

That being said, I could definitely still see insurance or government regulations of nefarious intent making road driving prohibitively expensive or illegal.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin PowerDork
5/15/17 8:23 p.m.
Joe Gearin wrote: Can I ride a horse down a city street?

Most places, yes. You can.

Ian F
Ian F MegaDork
5/16/17 7:03 a.m.

Philadelphia still has a mounted police force. I believe NYC does as well. I would guess many large cities have them as mounted police officers have advantages in many situations.

Thanks to the Amish, it's not uncommon to see horses on local roads in NY, PA, OH, etc. I've seen civilian horses on side roads in NJ while road riding.

Most of the mtn bike trails I ride on in the Philly area are also near equestrian stables, so I see horses often.

Legality of horses on public roads generally isn't the issue. It's training a fairly skittish animal to be comfortable around cars and unexpected loud noises. Police horses are so well trained a bomb could go off and it won't phase them. Civilian horses (often retired race horses) tend to be less so.

4cylndrfury
4cylndrfury MegaDork
5/16/17 7:38 a.m.

The problem for motorsports in the horse analogy is its kinda easy to make new horses when the old ones break down. If car makers stop making dumb cars, the fodder inputs for motorsport declines, and the sport will eventually die of starvation. The only materials available will be from a hobby-crafted cottage industry - parts availability and quality could suffer.

Then again, other tech is growing in the private sector...perhaps in 2117 youll be able to 3d print your own racecar, and the kids of the day will ridicule the adults for having to take part in operation of said vehicle.

FlightService
FlightService MegaDork
5/16/17 7:38 a.m.

Our driving enjoyment aside, there is another aspect of this.

"Almost 3 percent of all working American are drivers of some sort — more than 2 percent are truck drivers, 0.4 percent are bus drivers and 0.3 percent are cabbies and other types of drivers, according to Census Bureau occupational data."

That is estimated to be 5 million jobs in 10 years by some people.

You guys want to argue fossil fuels vs electric, hell, the more pressing question is going to be what are we going to do with 5 million unemployed? Global warming could kill in 40 years, an angry mob of out of work drivers could kill us in 10. (Not to be hyperbolic or anything )

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